Early Demand‑destruction Estimates Underestimate Global Barrel Shifts
I still personally struggle with these early demand destruction estimates. In many cases, a demanded barrel couldn’t be had at any price given acute initial shortages—presumably those who would still consume at higher prices will bid for other seaborne barrels, spreading the destruction more broadly beyond Asia in particular and arriving at a truer price-induced demand destruction.
Italy's Soaring Power Costs Expose Stubborn Gas Dependence
Italy rising power costs reveal gas reliance that’s hard to diversify https://t.co/gkD72hDglF via @Al_Brambilla https://t.co/lgz9odh4et
Small Gap Up: Raise Stops, Hold Longs Despite Overbought
Good morning stock fans. Small gap up allows us to sell some and/or move up stops. I have moved many stops a bit higher this morning. I have not sold any shares yet in premarket. Markets...
Small‑Cap Value Is Cheap—VIOV Offers Low‑Cost Long‑Term Bet
Small-cap value stocks look cheap. The VIOV ETF is a low-cost way to bet on their comeback, focusing on profitable small companies. Long-term play. Investing
NASDAQ's 13-Day Streak Ends, Still Bullish Outlook
"Although NASDAQ’s daily winning streak has come to an end at 13, its outlook for the next month remains positive." -Jeff Hirsch
US‑Canada Crude Surplus Could Drive Prices Toward $40
Lower Prices May Be Top Cure for US+Canada Surplus The recent WTI crude oil surge may add fuel to an incomplete low-price-cure cycle toward $40 a barrel. My graphic highlights a key reason why: the growing surplus in US and Canadian...
Corn Near $5 Ceiling; Gas Pump‑Dump May Pull to $4
Technical Outlook - Corn vs. $5 Ceiling and Pump-Then-Dump Pattern From Natural Gas Corn's low in this down cycle might not yet be in. December corn revisited threshold resistance near $5 a bushel in 1Q, alongside crude oil's surge to about...
December Corn Likely Slides Toward $4.30
December Corn May Lean Toward $4.30 vs. Above $5 New-crop December (Dec26) corn, at about $4.80 a bushel on April 20, may have a greater propensity to extend its life-of-contract low near $4.39 than to stay above the high of around...
Builders Halt After 120K Units, Permits Drop
This isn't a large amount of inventory in terms of scale, but once we reach 120K completed units, the builders don't push for more construction, so it's not surprising that housing permits and starts are low. https://t.co/YgX6DViH8r
Buffett's Pass on Tech Shows Discipline, Not Error
Buffett passed on Google, Amazon, and Walmart. Not because he was wrong about the businesses. Because he wasn't sure he understood them well enough to act with conviction. That's not a miss. That's discipline wearing a disguise.
War Cuts 1bn Barrels, Threatening Recession if Hormuz Stays Closed
Oil market has experienced a loss of 1 billion barrels due to war, says Trafigura’s Rahim. Oil markets are one month away from tank bottoms AND a recession is possible if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for three more months,...
China’s Capacity Vs. US Profit: Opposite Resource Gaps
Good post that once again reinforces this: China has abundant capacity but scarce profitability America has abundant profitability but scarce capacity. US is now obsessed and determined to get more capacity (may not work out) Is China equally obsessed and determined to...
CVNA Spikes, First Keltner Channel
CVNA....zero to 60 in...(!) First close back above KC is an exit when in an overall trading range. https://t.co/AHlHgChU24
Weighing Cash War Chest Against Full Market Exposure
Should you hold a cash "war chest" or stay 100% invested? There is no right or wrong answer, but there are two distinct schools of thought. Here is the breakdown of Optional Value vs. Cash Drag 🧵👇🏻
Market Surges as Earnings Beat and Strategic Deals Ignite
Another day another run for all time highs, and if you listen closely you can hear $CAR shorts and their tiny little cries. $AAPL announces Tim Cook's replacement come September, and $UNH gaps higher on earnings with a beat and...
DC Class A Office Prices Reset by $430M Deal
BXP sold its stake in Marriott’s Bethesda HQ at a $430M valuation. Trophy office. Metro-accessible. Single-tenant credit. That’s the product institutional buyers still want — and this deal just reset pricing expectations for D.C. metro Class A. What does your...
CTAs Flood S&P with $8B Daily, $50B by Month‑End
Price-agnostic CTAs are now strong buyers of the S&P 500 and pump $8 bln /day into the market. Until the end of the month, the total increase in S&P exposure could reach $50 bln. There is currently no scenario, where...
US Redirects Fertilizer Overseas Amid Iran War Price Surge
Uh oh: "US buyers redirect imported fertilizer overseas as Iran war drives up global prices" https://t.co/bQZvdTkA8z https://t.co/4gCpKe44yx
Hormuz Crisis Drives Coal Surge, Lifts Dry Bulk Rates
Dry bulk freight rates poised to rise as Hormuz crisis bolsters coal demand ▶️A substitution effect could occur where power plants burn more coal instead of crude oil products or gas to mitigate rising costs ▶️One industry player expects dry bulk freight...
Apple's Flat Premarket Reflects Confidence in June Guidance
Shares of $AAPL flat in the premarket. Sign that investors feel good about the June guide and more importantly that Ternus is the right guy. https://t.co/r2aFrjDjHD
Canadian Steel Prices 40% Below U.S., Fully Disconnected
"Canadian [steel] pricing has 'completely disconnected' from the U.S., running at a '40% discount to U.S. pricing,'" 👀 https://t.co/RxOI4R1JE5 https://t.co/lMrgt4UWO4
De‑escalation, Not Manipulation, Drives Falling Oil Prices
This shock hasn't worked out the way alarmists made it out to be. De-escalation has meant oil futures (orange) have fallen and have pulled down the physical oil price (white) with them. This isn't manipulation or a sign of a...
Ukraine Drone Strikes Force Russia to Cut April Oil Output
April 21 (Reuters) - Russia was forced to reduce oil output in April due to Ukrainian drone attacks on ports and refineries, as well as a halt to crude supplies via the only remaining Russian oil pipeline to Europe, according...
High‑beta Assets Surge After Late‑March Market Dip
Off the late March Lows - High Beta Meme $MEME +59% Bitcoin Miners $WGMI +55% Cannabis $MSOS +38% Semis $SOXX +35% Quantum Computing $QTUM +26% Ark Robotics $ARKQ +23% Copper $COPX +22% Uranium $URNM +20% Silver Miners $SIL +19% Nasdaq 100 $QQQ +16% Bitcoin $IBIT +15% Missing?
Tim Cook Multiplies Apple’s Value Tenfold in 15 Years
Tim Cook’s 15 years as Apple CEO by the numbers: - 15 years as CEO (Aug 2011–Sept. 1 2026) - $4.0T market cap, up ~10x from ~$350B - +699% profit growth to $112B - 2.5B+ active devices ...
Stay Calm: Emotion Is the Real Investment Risk
Staying calm when others panic. Calm investors make better decisions. Emotion is often the real risk. #InvestorBehaviour #LongTermThinking https://t.co/0wls8rC4o1
Warsh's Confirmation Will Be Measured by Powell Standard
My take: A successful central banker, the adage goes, moves interest rates the right way at the right time and looks like he knows what he is doing. If Kevin Warsh is confirmed, he will be judged by...
Wall Street, FOMC Scrutinize Warsh Amid Trump Rate‑Cut Pressure
The toughest audiences at Warsh's confirmation hearing won't be in the room. Wall Street and the FOMC are watching how he'll manage Trump's pressure to cut interest rates. The president is watching for signs he'll deliver on expectations he set...
Russian Oil to India Near Record Levels Despite Sanctions Waiver
MOSCOW, April 21 (Reuters) - Russian oil sales to India are set to remain near record highs in April and May following a new U.S. sanctions waiver, and refiners have already secured much of their supply needs via non-sanctioned entities...
Tech ETFs Outpace Consumer Staples 94‑fold in One Year
technology $XLK stocks have 94x'd the consumer staples $XLP stocks in the past year... https://t.co/8p7GCceEWw
China Set to Outpace US in Nuclear Capacity by 2030
Yicai: "China is expected to surpass the United States in operational nuclear power capacity before 2030, becoming the world’s largest, as the country accelerates reactor construction and investment." https://t.co/mmGLIDcA5g
Tech Stocks Deeply Discounted vs Projected Earnings Growth
Relative to projected earnings growth, the Tech sector is trading at a steep discount. via SocGen Kabra
Don’t Complain if AFC Hits 20p—Momentum Ahead
When #AFC are 20p please please don’t moan at me you never bought as like #Kino at 11p (88.5p sold ) it’s gonna happen . dyor #afc #cwr #itm Ride the momentum 😜 https://t.co/yD71SSCQSd
Mega Office Projects Struggle Amid Stagnant Demand and Rising Rates
Serious question - how do the economics of these mega developments actually work? Structural demand for office space in Japan is stagnant at best (at best). This was before WFH etc. and now yen rates are pushing 2.5% so money...
Druckenmiller Vows No China Investments Under Current Leader
Stanley Druckenmiller on investing in China: "We exited China in 2018. We haven’t made a single trade in security there other than their currency once in a while. I will never invest in China as long as the current leader...
Screenshot‑worthy Gains Mean It’s Time to Cash Out
If your trading profits are big enough to take a screen shot of then they’re big enough to exit for a profit.
Focus on Risk‑return, Not Fancy Financial Engineering
Financial engineering does not make a good product Risk always comes back It’s boring to say but this is why you focus on risk vs return and create allocations
KOSPI Jumps 2.7% to Record Amid Tech Rally
Dr. KOSPI ramps another +2.7% to all-time highs as Global Tech goes full-send back into #Quad2 https://t.co/32579LZkfe
Hedgeye Bullish Breakout Signals Hit Apple, JPM
SIGNALS: our Bullish @Hedgeye TREND Breakout Signals on both $AAPL and $JPM came right on Quad Shift Time https://t.co/mbbhsQ5SRt
IGP Gains 8% on New Orders, Valuation Drops
#IGP won $3.8m over 3 new orders. ShareScope has fwd p/e 18 falling to 15.4 and no Dividend, BEFORE 8% jump today. Still interesting. I don't hold.
LYC Posts 115% Revenue Surge on Strong Ex‑China Demand
$LYC pretty reasonable quarter with A$ revenues up 115% y/y on continued high pricing and first production of Dy/TB and Sm. Op margin looks good. The company cites continued strong ex-China demand for its products. During the qtr it extended...
IHP Thrives, ShareScope's Valuation Improves, Dividend Up
#IHP Update reads well and Transact platform continues to grow. ShareScope has fwd p/e 17 falling to 15.2 and fwd Divvy 3.8% rising to 4.2%; lot to like and nice payout. I don't hold.
Expert Advises UHNW Clients on Advanced Tax Avoidance
I'm speaking at Spear’s 500 Live on 6 May - "bringing together the most senior and influential figures in private wealth, luxury and law" for "ultra-high-net-worth clients". Naturally I'll be talking about how they can avoid tax more successfully. https://t.co/sJTXik9aml https://t.co/Ha7mg0Sm2m
NICL Appears Cheap After Cash Strip, but I Stay Out
#NICL good Update. Net Cash £59.8m (up). Potential disruption from Middle East dramas. ShareScope has fwd p/e 12.9 falling to 12.1 and fwd Divvy 4.9% rising to 5.4%; strip out cash and it looks cheap. I don't hold.
Equities Price AI; Oil Ignores Real Supply Shock
Equity markets have priced in AI, which might happen. Whereas, oil markets have NOT priced in what has already happened. ~ 1 billion barrels of oil has been lost to date… and oil prices are up only ~50%.
Top Deep‑Value Blogs to Bookmark for Hidden Gems
Some of the best deep value / special sits blogs I've started following over the last 12 months, a mix of private investors and funds, all worth bookmarking 👇 1) @everyonehatesp1: Small & micro-cap ideas with inflection and catalyst-rich trades 2) @MaiusPartners:...
AXS Shows Modest Accoya Growth, Yet Valuation Stretched
#AXS Update reads well with decent growth in Accoya volumes and value. ShareScope showing fwd p/e 31.7 2 years out; with debt it's a very high rating, so lot more growth needed.
XPS FY Update Boosts Appeal: Lower P/E, Higher Dividend
#XPS good FY Update, especially after a strong prior year. ShareScope has fwd p/e 14.8 falling to 13.7 and fwd Divvy 4% rising to 4.3%; still appealing.
Invest in ChatGPT and Claude Now Before IPOs
You can invest in ChatGPT and Claude today. OpenAI (ChatGPT) and Anthropic (Claude) are both preparing to IPO later this year, but you don't have to wait until then. Big Tech isn't waiting either. They're loading up on both. 3 ways to get...
UK to Curb Gas Power with Fixed-Price CfDs
NEW: Details of UK govt plans to "break influence of gas on electricity prices" Carrot: Offer fixed-price "wholesale CfDs" to old renewables, replacing wholesale ££ but not RO top-up Stick: Higher windfall tax of 45–>55% on 1 July for old renewables/nuclear 1/3 https://t.co/zMNwT7DWGm