Favor 6180 Settlement, yet 6865 May Arrive Quickly
The first tweet was confusing. I favor 6180 for settlement but 6865 could happen fast https://t.co/P9FqExf0Xf
SPX Rebounds From Oversold, Eyes 200DMA Resistance
#SPX: As mentioned this weekend and yesterday, oversold conditions were extreme. Moment of Truth: Price filled the gap and hit the 10DMA, the dominant March trendline. Today’s difference: the candle shows bullish conviction. Next major hurdle: the 200DMA. #SPY
NDX and QQQ Near Resistance: Rally or Dead‑Cat Bounce?
Strong bounce today but $NDX $QQQ now close to overhead resistance. Next few days will confirm if this is the start of a durable rally or a "dead cat" bounce. https://t.co/4ieYl9Fzob
Markets Surge on Trump Iran Peace Hint, Energy Lags
The Dow gained 1,100 points today. The S&P jumped 2.9%. Best day since May. The catalyst: a WSJ report that Trump told aides he's willing to end the Iran war even if Hormuz stays partially closed. Every sector rallied except...
Barbell Investing: Stable ETFs Meet Compute‑Data‑Energy Winners
Thoughts? I discuss how to navigate market crashes using a barbell strategy combining stability and opportunity. We talk about building a foundation with VOO and VTI for security, while positioning for future gains in the power triad of compute, data,...
Rising LNG Prices Threaten Terminals, Shift Coal‑Gas Dynamics
Higher LNG prices also putting LNG terminals at risk. There's upside and downside here. To the extent that these were driving coal -> gas switching, more downside than up. But if coal is also constrained, would boost renewables.
Consistent Roth IRA Contributions Paved Path Before Taxable Shift
I started investing in my Roth IRA in 2011 and my wife, in 2013. We maxed them out year after year and bought mainly index funds and tech stocks like Nvidia, Google, and Apple. 2019 was the last...
Hormuz Closure Could Push Oil to $300 Barrel
If Hormuz remains close the price of oil and refined products could rise to $200, $250, $300 per barrel or any number.
Latam’s Pivotal Growth Cycle Outshines US Stocks
Ask yourself… What would you rather own at this juncture: Latin America or US stocks? Latam is entering one of the most important cycles in its history, in my view. I couldn’t be more excited to be deeply involved as an investor...
Lennar's Home Incentives Triple in One Year
Lennar—America’s second-largest homebuilder—had to spend $62,700 on incentives per average home sale last year Back in 2022, that figure was $17,300 via @ResidentialClub
Trump Oversaw 14 of 16 Dow 1,000‑Point Gains
This was the 16th 1,000 point gain ever for the Dow. President Trump has 14 of them. https://t.co/oP8XQ1LVb1
From Quant Momentum to Buffett: Targeting Cheap Ball‑Bearing Stock
Big news: After 40 years of running quant momentum models fancier than a meat pie at a hatted restaurant, I've decided to go full Warren Buffett. I'm burning the data, binning the computer terminals, and I'm now going deep on...
Shorts Covered, Long Entries
A week ago Sunday we were all bulked up waiting for our levels to cover shorts and bonds and go long two's, gold , zb and stocks. Some of our levels hit (we covered shorts and had highly levered...
Market Rallies, Best Day Since May 2025
S&P 500: +2.91% Nasdaq: +3.83% Dow Jones: +2.49% Today was the best day in the market since May of 2025!
Positive Breadth Divergence Signals Long Opportunities on SPY
This morning we outlined the positive divergence in yesterday's breadth figures and mapped out actionable setups for today. One was following the VWAP on SPY from the opening print — long story short, it kept you on the right side. I...
UK Faces Fuel Shortage Amid US‑Israel/Iran Energy Crisis
Prices at the pump? UK running out of fuel? What should the government and the public do in the face of the US-Israel/Iran energy crisis? https://t.co/dVMIfX1kI1 via @Channel4News with @mattfrei
Basra‑Aqaba Pipeline Would Pay for Itself in Months
1 million bpd Basra-Aqaba pipeline costing $9 billion would have paid for itself in 3 months in the current crisis. And given Baghdad some resilience against closure of the Strait. Exactly why the Iran-aligned parties blocked it over nonsense arguments about...
GLW Poised for Upside After 50‑day MA Reversal
$GLW A good setup to watch next few days. Lovely reversal off the 50 day MA today to print an INSIDE DAY candle. Look for upside follow-thru tomorrow. $GLW is a direct beneficiary from A.I. integration ecosystem. Targets $160 https://t.co/xF1tgLnRf6
Market Oversold Yet Fundamentals Strengthen with 4.5% ERP
The matrix below shows that the market is oversold, but not to the extremes that has led to low risk contrarian plays in the past. With the P/E ratio down twice as much as price, the fundamentals are looking better...
Four‑Week Hormuz Closure Halts Critical Petrochemical Shipments
I can’t believe the Strait of Hormuz has been closed for four weeks. It seems like so much longer than that. Scarcely do I remember the last time petrochemicals, urea, helium and other fundamental components could safely transit to key...
IT Sector's Forward P/E Aligns with Market
The forward P/Es of the IT sector and the overall market have nearly converged. @augurinfinity https://t.co/AVJYMyYzGn https://t.co/F33svpKEq0
Most Magnificent Seven Stocks Enter Bear Markets, Signaling Leadership Shift
The S&P 500 is only down 9% from its January high. But 6 of the 7 members of the Magnificent Seven are already in bear markets. This is what a shift in leadership looks like. https://t.co/QcFh9RaBaK
Equity Put/Call Ratio Near 2‑Year Highs Signals Short‑Cover
The 5-day Equity-Only Put/Call Ratio has been sitting near 2-year range highs The setup for a short-covering rally was there Tough tape if you can't stay reactive $SPY $QQQ https://t.co/5RbeIFVmNC
Nasdaq Rallies, but Bearish Indicators Warn of Pullback
#Nasdaq Comp big Up Candle. Support 21000, 20690. Resistance 22000, 22569, 22906. RSI 37 not low. 13/21 day EMAs Bearish. Top Bollinger Band 22500. Midpoint Line 21622. Bottom Band 20750.
AIM Oversold, Bullish MACD Cross Signals Possible Upswing
#AIM All Share small Up Candle and Sideways 8 days. Resistance 732, 750, 779. Support 700, 693. Could be lining up MACD Bull Cross. RSI 25 quite Oversold. Top Bollinger Band 746. Midpoint Line 721. Bottom Band 695.
SPX Bounces Above 10‑DMA, Still Needs 200‑DMA
$SPX - All previous bounces in March failed closing above the 10 DMA. Today's bounce succeeded so it may go higher but the key MA that has to be regained is the 200 DMA. Until that happens we're still in...
Foreign Central Banks Dump US Treasuries Amid Iran Conflict
"Foreign central banks sell US Treasuries in wake of Iran war" https://t.co/B4oQiLaXmS "Foreign central banks are selling US bonds at a time when the Treasury market is already under pressure as traders worry that the Middle East conflict could drive...
FTSE250 Climbs, RSI Still Oversold, Key Levels Ahead
#FTSE250 Up Candle. Resistance 21520, 21716, 22000. Support 21000, 20627. RSI 28 still Oversold. Top Bollinger Band 21938. Midpoint Line 21327. Bottom Band 20703.
Oil Futures Slip Into Backwardation as Hormuz Bottleneck Persists
With the Hormuz Strait all but closed, the crude oil futures curve is back to the backwardation levels of the first few days of the conflict. The front contract is about $23 higher than the 9th contract, indicating that the...
FTSE100 Poised for Bullish Turn Amid Doji
#FTSE100 doji Candle but up on yesterday. Resistance 10245, 10447, 10636. Support 10000, 9839, 9670. On verge MACD Bull Cross. RSI 47 near Neutral. 13/21 day EMAs Bearish. Top Bollinger Band 10296. Midpoint Line 10050. Bottom Band 9800.
Brent Crude Gains Nearly $50 Amid Iran Conflict
Brent crude prompt futures price, Iran-War-to-date. Up just shy of $50 per barrel over the past month. https://t.co/SERzQ38Bos
March: Stocks Slide, Oil Soars, Bitcoin Modest Rise
$SPY -4.99% in March (total return) $USO oil +55.4% $IBIT bitcoin +3.3% I tried to fumble together a few words about it all: https://t.co/M99CIccdiZ https://t.co/NIF1PedJWs
SPX Q1 Rebounds Into Massive Trading Box, No Coincidence
$SPX - Concludes Q1 by snapping right back to the massive trading box. There are no coincidences. https://t.co/iY8uUWWVLA
DAX Teeters at Resistance, MACD Signals Bullish Turn
#DAX doji Candle. Resistance 23000, 23180, 24000. Support 22209, 21863. On verge MACD Bull Cross. RSI 37 not low. 13/21 day EMAs Bearish. Top Bollinger Band 23346. Midpoint Line 22700. Bottom Band 22065.
Few Can Handle >30 Volatility Both Ways
Actually, the takeaway should be that very few humans can risk manage something both ways (up and down days) when that something's Vol ramps > 30. At least this human didn't
QQQ's 3.4% Surge Unlikely to End Downtrend
$QQQ - Up 3.4% today, the biggest up day since last May. Does it mean the downtrend is over? Not so fast. In order for it to be more than a one day bounce it has to get back above...
Brent Oil Awaits Breakout Above $112.1 Amid Overbought Signals
#BrentOil Comp Doji Candle and Sideways. Needs Breakout $112.1. Support $100, $91.8, $84. RSI 71.5 Overbought but can go higher. Top Bollinger Band $111.6. Midpoint Line $102.5. Bottom Band $93.6.
Semis Begin Reverting After Today's Move
Yes, even after today ;-) Semis Are Just Starting To Mean Revert $SMH $MU #LiveTradingRoom https://t.co/AhrFbzFcVB
SPX and COMPQ Recover, Holding Above 10‑EMA
$SPX and $COMPQ both filled their recent gap downs and today's sticks back over 10ema daily
Review March, Plan April: Budget Check Prevents Stress
March is wrapping up—before April starts, take a minute to check in on your money. - Did you stick to your budget or go over? - Any surprise expenses? - What worked, and what needs adjusting? Then, plan ahead: - Any big April expenses coming...
Gold and Treasuries Funding Liquidity Amid Oil Backwardation
With only one ship passing through the Strait last week, the oil curve has remained heavily backwardated. Looking at the correlations below, we see that gold and bonds have been positively correlated (with both under pressure), and Bitcoin and the...
Report on Global Imbalances Useful Yet Lacks Hard‑Hit Insight
A few reactions to the Bai, Gopinath, Rey and Weber report on global imbalances commissioned by the French G-7 Presidency. It makes a number of important and useful points, but could have been much more hard hitting 1/ https://t.co/tGPWHoSwYs
Bulls Buying the Dip Sparks Major Market Rally
When bulls buy the dip, they’re relentless. • S&P 500 +180 points 🟢 • Dow Jones +1075 points 🟢 • Nasdaq 100 +784 points 🟢 Is the stock market back in business?
Watch QQQ/SPY Lows, XLE Highs, Stay Nimble
Watching $QQQ & $SPY recent lows and $XLE recent high for levels to trade against or to use as clues to manage risk. Bounces mean I stay nimble and quick to inch up stops and/or ladder some. Gaps...
Large‑cap New Highs Outpace Lows: 21 vs 11
there are 21 large-cap stocks hitting the 52-week new highs list today... there are 11 large-cap stocks hitting the 52-week new lows list... #FinanciallyINsync #HighLowShow #marketUpdate #investing
US‑China Trade Collapse: Prospects for Recovery?
Really honored to join the National Committee on US-China Relations to chat about my latest research: U.S.-China Trade Collapsed. Can It Recover? 📺 https://t.co/WPRwLNqS2z https://t.co/DATDHcySKT
Volatility Indexes Stay Elevated, Market Stressed Despite Credit Relief
Volatility indices across the spectrum have continued to remain elevated, from oil (OVX) to stocks (VIX) to bonds (MOVE). The market has remained in a state of stress, even as the drawdowns in the private credit leaders have moderated. https://t.co/iWYDR6GvD2
China’s Iranian Oil Purchases Become Risky, Costly, Contested
China can still buy Iranian oil, but every barrel now comes with higher military risk, higher shipping costs, and the threat of sanctions or interdiction. What was once a quiet $8 to $12 discount trade is now a fragile, contested...
Rising Rates and Concentration Risk Drive Market Pullback
With the headlines lurching from one end to another, it’s not getting any easier to find clarity on how or when the conflict in the Middle East will end or what damage the ongoing Hormuz bottleneck will inflict on the...
Learn Buffett's Stock Valuation Math for $4.99
My New Book for Investors: "Stock Market Investing is Math: A Beginner's Guide to the Formulas for Valuing Stocks and Building Wealth" is 50% off today for its launch and $4.99 for the next 24 hours Amazon U.S. Link-> https://t.co/3epaIjMmd1 ...