Tame CPI Still Spells Trouble for Fed’s Favored Inflation Measure
Core CPI remained mild in January‑February 2026, but the Fed‑preferred core PCE is projected to outpace it sharply. Economists expect core PCE to rise about 3.1% year‑over‑year, creating the widest CPI‑PCE gap in decades. The divergence stems from differing weightings, with PCE emphasizing goods like software and jewelry while CPI stresses housing and used‑car prices. Rising oil prices from the Iran conflict add upside inflation risk, limiting the Fed’s ability to cut rates.
Stagflation Sojourn
U.S. equities posted their worst weekly decline in nearly a year as an energy‑driven stagflation scenario unfolded following a sharp spike in oil prices tied to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The article attributes the shock to escalating...
US January Trade Balance -54.5B vs -66.6B Expected
The U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $54.5 billion in January, well below the $66.6 billion forecast and the revised $72.9 billion December figure. A surge in gold and other precious‑metal exports contributed roughly $9 billion of the improvement, while imports fell modestly. Capital‑goods exports,...
US Initial Claims 213K vs 215K Estimate
U.S. initial jobless claims came in at 213,000, modestly under the 215,000 forecast. The four‑week moving average slipped to 212,000, while continuing claims held steady at 1.85 million, matching expectations. Revised prior‑week figures show a small dip in both initial and...
Grocery Prices Continue to Rise
Grocery prices are climbing faster than last year, according to recent CPI‑food‑at‑home data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics shows a year‑over‑year increase of about 5% in the first quarter of 2024, outpacing the 2023 rate. The Economic Research Service’s forecast...
February Inflation Rose 0.3%, as Expected. Is This Our Last ‘Tame’ Reading for Awhile?
U.S. consumer price index (CPI‑U) rose 0.3% month‑over‑month in February, matching analysts' expectations. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, stayed above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, signaling persistent price pressures. The modest increase follows a series of tame readings,...
Cool Inflation Report Is Old News In Hot War
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported underlying price growth of 0.2% in February, a slight dip to 0.216% versus the whisper forecast. The figure aligned with most economists’ expectations, easing concerns about a resurgence of core inflation. Despite the...
When Fiscal and Monetary Policy Row Together–And Not
Christina Romer’s new paper reviews historic episodes where fiscal and monetary policy moved in tandem, showing that coordination only helps when both tools aim at the right goal. The Great Depression, 1970s stagflation, Volcker’s anti‑inflation campaign, and the 1990s deficit‑reduction...
Federal Reserve Rate Cut Outlook & Mortgage Impact Spring 2026
The Federal Reserve’s March 2026 policy meeting is widely expected to keep the federal funds rate steady, as inflation eases to 2.4% but still sits above the 2% target. Mortgage rates have settled around 6% following the Fed’s recent hold,...
Does Inflation Hit Retirees Differently? What Physicians Need to Know
Physicians are being warned that inflation can erode retirees' purchasing power more sharply than for working‑age patients, especially when fixed incomes meet rising healthcare costs. The article outlines how price spikes in prescription drugs, long‑term care, and everyday expenses disproportionately...
In US Housing, A Faint Pulse. But That’s It.
Existing home sales in the United States posted a modest 1.7% increase in February, marking the first uptick after a sharp decline the previous month. The rise caught many economists off‑guard, as most forecasts anticipated a continued slide. While the...
Every “Expert” Who Said Tariffs Would Destroy America Owes Us an Apology
The piece contends that Trump‑era tariffs have slashed the U.S. trade deficit with China, delivering a 32% drop and pushing the deficit to its lowest level in 21 years. China’s share of U.S. imports fell from 13% to 7% within...
U.S. Treasury Rates Weekly Update for March 6, 2026
U.S. Treasury yields climbed across the board for the week ending March 6, 2026. The benchmark 30‑year rate rose 0.13 percentage points, while the 10‑year advanced 0.18 points to 4.15 %. The 3‑year note settled at 3.59 %, reflecting broader upward pressure on government debt yields....
What I Got Wrong About the Post-Global Financial Crisis Recovery ❤️🩹
On March 9 2009 the S&P 500 closed at a historic low of 676, marking the bottom of the Global Financial Crisis market decline. The National Bureau of Economic Research later confirmed the recession officially ended in June 2009, but did not announce this...
How $4/Gallon Gas Could Take the Economy From a Nearly Complete Stall Into Outright Recession
Gas prices hovering just above $3 per gallon have acted as a modest tailwind for U.S. consumers, but a rise to $4 per gallon would erase that benefit and return to a neutral stance relative to wages. The economy is...
REPORTS OF THE DEATH OF THE BUSINESS CYCLE ARE VASTLY EXAGGERATED
Kevin Muir argues that claims of the business cycle’s demise are overstated, noting that cyclical patterns still shape macroeconomic outcomes. He points to a recent tipping point where labor market slack is eroding, causing unemployment to rise faster than expected....
Seems Plausible: Recession in 2026
Polymarket’s recession contract defines a U.S. recession as an NBER declaration for any quarter in 2025 or 2026, issued before the BEA releases its Q4 2026 advance estimate. Because the NBER typically confirms recessions with a lag, the contract’s definition lowers...
Market Expectations of Inflation
Friday’s 5‑year Treasury‑TIPS breakeven spread sits above the Federal Reserve’s 2 % inflation target, mirroring the Federal Reserve’s Dodd‑Katz‑Wright (DKW) expected inflation series. Both metrics suggest market participants price in CPI inflation well above 2 % for the medium term. Kalshi’s latest...
Volatile Crosscurrents Keep Mortgage Rates Relatively Flat
Mortgage rates remained relatively flat this week despite opposing forces in the bond market. A sharp surge in oil prices initially pushed rates higher by stoking inflation concerns, but a surprisingly weak jobs report later that day pulled yields down....
February’s Job Losses Continue ‘Whiplash’ Effect for Employers
February’s employment report showed a net loss of 92,000 jobs, nudging the unemployment rate to 4.4% and pushing labor‑force participation down to 62%, its lowest level since late 2021. The decline was led by a 28,000‑job drop in healthcare, driven...
Americans Now Work Up to 25 Extra Days a Year Just to Afford Rent, Food, and a Used Car
U.S. workers now need about 66 full workdays each year to cover rent, groceries and a used car, seven days more than in 2007. Although average hourly wages have risen 66% since the 2008 crisis, the cost of essential goods...
A Brutal Jobs Report
The latest BLS jobs report showed U.S. employment contracting by 92,000 jobs in February, with a further 69,000‑job downgrade for December and January, pushing the unemployment rate to 4.4%. Over the past 12 months, employers added just 156,000 jobs—far below...
February Jobs Report: Main Street Lays an Egg
February’s jobs report showed a net loss of 92,000 positions, with the private sector shedding 86,000 jobs and government payrolls down 6,000. The headline unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, while the broader U6 underemployment measure fell slightly to 7.9%....
Social Security Insolvency Timeline Moves Closer Again, Now Forecast for 2032
The Congressional Budget Office now projects that the Social Security Old‑Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund will be exhausted by 2032, a year earlier than its 2023 forecast. The acceleration stems from higher inflation‑driven cost‑of‑living adjustments and weaker payroll‑tax revenue....
Republican Budget Threatens Social Security and Medicare Solvency
Republican lawmakers passed a federal budget that slashes Medicare and Medicaid spending by up to $1 trillion over the next decade. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the cuts cut 12 years off Medicare Part A’s projected solvency and will push Social Security’s...
The Market Brief
The market is eyeing the upcoming Non‑Farm Payroll and U.S. retail‑sales releases after a week of volatility sparked by the U.S.–Iran conflict. Geopolitical tension has nudged the S&P 500 outlook toward the downside, yet it has not yet altered payroll expectations,...
Three Kinds of Fed-Treasury Accords
Peter Conti‑Brown outlines three separate Fed‑Treasury accords: one freeing the Treasury from setting monetary policy, a second keeping the Fed out of partisan politics, and a third enhancing collaboration on public‑debt management. He traces the historic 1951 Accord that granted...
“New Regime” Of Lower Jobless Claims Continues - a Good Sign (but for Geopolitical Idiocy)
Weekly jobless claims data showed initial filings unchanged at 213,000, while the four‑week moving average slipped to 215,750. Year‑over‑year, initial claims fell 4.9% and the moving‑average declined 4.7%, signaling a continued “new regime” of lower claims that has persisted for...
Why Your Income Isn’t Growing (Video)
The United States is experiencing a prolonged slowdown in real income growth, eroding the optimism that once characterized the post‑war era. Declining private investment rates are identified as the primary engine behind this stagnation, limiting productivity gains and wage increases....
Goldilocks Makes Surprise Cameo In US Services Sector
The Institute for Supply Management released a surprisingly strong services‑sector PMI on March 4, showing the index climb to 55.2, well above the 53.5 consensus. New orders surged 4.1% month‑over‑month and employment added roughly 150,000 jobs, underscoring robust demand. Analysts dubbed...
How Does the U.S. Tax System Stack Up?
The United States collects general‑government tax revenue equal to about 25.5% of GDP, roughly ten percentage points below the OECD average. Only two‑thirds of that revenue comes from the federal level, a share far lower than other industrial federations. Compliance...
Analysis: New CBO Projection Accounting for Trump Administration Policies Shows Americans Will Pay Billions More in Fuel Taxes
The Congressional Budget Office now projects that Americans will pay more than $80 billion in additional gasoline taxes over the next decade, a sharp rise from earlier forecasts. The increase stems from Trump‑era transportation rollbacks that discourage fuel‑efficiency measures and freeze...
NEW POD! How Credit Markets Shaped a Nation with Sarah Quinn
In the latest Net Interest Extra episode, sociologist Sarah Quinn discusses her book *American Bonds*, which argues that credit markets have been a foundational force in shaping the United States. Quinn traces how borrowing practices influenced industrial growth, urbanization, and...
The Dollar Is the Only Game in Town
The U.S. dollar is strengthening across major G10 pairs as the Middle East conflict fuels risk aversion, pushing the euro, yen, and sterling lower. Emerging market currencies such as the peso, yuan and real also slide, while equity markets suffer...
Federal Reserve Revenue: Cutsinger’s Solution
The Federal Reserve sets its own operating budget and remits any surplus to the Treasury, but it lacks a residual claimant who would benefit from cost savings. Because officials do not capture saved dollars, there is little incentive to minimize...
U.S. Treasury Rates Weekly Update for February 27, 2026
U.S. Treasury yields slipped across the curve for the week ending February 27, 2026. The 30‑year note fell 0.08 percentage points, while the benchmark 10‑year yield dropped 0.11 points to 3.97%. The 3‑year Treasury rate held at 3.39%, indicating modest...
Fed More Likely to Stay Pat?
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates steady, prompting the dollar index to climb and Treasury 10‑year yields to rise about nine basis points. Higher yields reflect tighter monetary expectations, while the 10‑year TIPS also edged up six...
Simply Unaffordable! FHA Lower Credit Score Borrowers (0-619) Suffer Escalating Mortgage Delinquency Rates
FHA loans held by borrowers with credit scores between 0 and 619 are experiencing a sharp rise in 90‑day delinquency rates, the steepest since the program’s inception. The surge follows a post‑COVID fiscal stimulus that drove home prices to record...
Mortgage Rates Jump After Iran Attack
Mortgage rates slipped back above the 6% threshold after the Iran attack, with the 30‑year fixed climbing to 6.12%—a 13‑basis‑point jump. Ten‑year Treasury yields rose nine basis points, and mortgage‑backed‑security prices fell, feeding the rate increase. Simultaneously, oil prices spiked...
Measuring AI's Real Impact on Work and the Economy
Stanford economist Nick Bloom presented new empirical evidence on AI adoption and its effect on jobs and productivity. By merging firm‑level surveys, payroll records, and real‑time usage data, his team quantified how generative AI is being deployed across industries. The...
Jobs Report Collides With Iran War In Pivotal Week
U.S. nonfarm payrolls for February posted a solid gain of 210,000 jobs, nudging the unemployment rate down to 3.6%. The report arrived amid heightened geopolitical tension following the weekend assassination that sparked an Iran‑Israel conflict. Investors grappled with strong labor...
Newsquawk Week Ahead: Highlights 2nd-6th March 2026
The OPEC+ meeting on March 1 is expected to unwind 137,000 barrels per day of voluntary cuts, signaling a tentative supply increase as Brent hovers near $71. US economic data show a slowdown in manufacturing, with the ISM PMI dropping...
Interpreting the Shrinking Term Spread
The 10‑year versus 3‑month Treasury spread has been compressing sharply, as high‑frequency data show a pronounced narrowing. Analysts note that the traditional term premium calculation omits heightened default risk, which is evident in rising U.S. Treasury CDS spreads. When inflation...
'Soft' Data Soars To 2-Year Highs As Chicago PMI Smashes Expectations
The Market News International Chicago Business Barometer posted a 57.7 reading, the strongest level since May 2022 and well above analyst forecasts. This marks the second consecutive month the index has stayed above the 50‑point expansion threshold. Core components such...
The Market Brief
U.S. equity markets opened with a sharp selloff, pulling the S&P 500 and Nasdaq toward monthly losses while the Dow remains on track for a February gain. Despite the decline, about 70% of S&P constituents closed higher, indicating broad participation....
From Fed Failures to Inflation and Stablecoins: America’s Trust Is Cracking
The new book *Avoid Fiscal & Economic Disaster with Ethics, Economics, and Excellence* by former Fed official Bill Bergman and retired Air Force Lt. Col. Larry Feltes warns that America’s greatest vulnerability is a collapsing trust in its institutions. They...
Nothing Doing: Lowest Rates Since 2022 Fail To Spur Home Sales
U.S. mortgage rates have fallen to their lowest levels since September 2022, yet home sales remain stagnant. A roughly 50% imbalance between sellers and buyers underscores a deep‑seated market freeze. Inventory shortages and lingering affordability concerns continue to suppress demand...
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.2% Below 2022 Peak
The December Case‑Shiller report shows nominal house prices reaching fresh all‑time highs, while inflation‑adjusted (real) values sit slightly below their 2022 peak—2.2% for the national index and 2.4% for the composite 20. Despite the recent dip, real prices remain 10.3%...
How Africa Keeps Losing Despite China V. West Race for Minerals
The United States hosted its first Critical Minerals Ministerial in February 2026, unveiling a preferential trading bloc, price‑floor mechanisms and a $12 billion strategic stockpile to curb China’s dominance. At the same time, a US‑backed consortium struck a $9 billion deal with...
Trust in Numbers
The article argues that while the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) faces accusations of political manipulation, there is no evidence of data tampering and the agency relied on its documented imputation methodology during the 2025 shutdown. It highlights the importance...