Upward Shift: Market-Implied Path of 3 Month SOFR, Pre-War Vs. Now
The secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) now trades about 23 basis points above the Federal Reserve’s median funds‑rate projections for both year‑end 2023 and the end of 2027. This premium emerged after the war in the Middle East shifted market expectations, reversing a February dip when the conflict was not yet on investors’ radar. The March Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) kept its rate outlook unchanged from December, leaving a gap between the Fed’s official forecasts and market‑implied rates. The divergence signals that markets view the current policy stance as nearer to neutral than the Fed’s own estimates.
Explaining The Highs And Lows From The Latest U.S. Jobs Report
The March 2026 jobs report showed a sharp rebound in employment, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics reporting the largest monthly gain since December 2024 and the unemployment rate slipping to 4.3%, an unexpected decline. Growth was broad‑based, led by...
“Liberation Day” Plus One Year
A year after the so‑called "Liberation Day," the Yale Budget Lab finds that U.S. tariff costs are now passed through to consumers at a 76% rate, reaching 100% for many durable goods. Fed Chair Jay Powell estimates tariffs are adding...
ADG 4/6: Wait-and-See-Change
BlackRock has filed with the SEC to launch a Nasdaq‑100 ETF under the ticker IQQ, likely charging a 12‑basis‑point fee that undercuts Invesco’s QQQ, which carries an 18‑bps charge and manages about $375 billion. Invesco’s shares dropped more than 5% after...
Iran War Photobombs Key Services Sector Snapshot
The article warns that the ongoing Iran conflict is reshaping financial reporting and outlooks for the U.S. services sector. It notes that 1Q earnings guidance across S&P 500 companies has reached a five‑year high, but uncertainty looms for 2Q as geopolitical...
Nonfarm Payroll Employment in 2026: More Volatile?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Current Employment Statistics (CES) nonfarm payroll series appears more volatile in 2026 compared with the ADP private‑sector estimate. The divergence cannot be clearly tied to the February nurses strike or to the new birth‑death...
Daily Data on 5 Year Inflation Expectations
The 5‑year Treasury‑TIPS breakeven spread rose 14 basis points through March 31, reaching a 21‑bp gain by April 3, while the DKW model’s five‑year inflation expectation increased 10 basis points over the same window. A simple conversion suggests that a 10‑bp rise...
US Treasury Yield Curve Upward Sloping As Iran Conflict Continues (Strait Of Hormuz Effectively Closed)
The U.S. Treasury yield curve has returned to a classic upward slope, with long‑term rates climbing faster than a year ago. The shift coincides with heightened geopolitical risk as the Strait of Hormuz—key for global oil shipments—has effectively shut down...
Trade Data Smacks GDPNow First Quarter Forecast Down to 1.1 Percent
The Fed’s GDPNow model now projects first‑quarter 2026 growth at just 1.1% annualized, down from its earlier 1.6% headline nowcast. The downgrade stems primarily from a sharper‑than‑expected decline in net‑exports, which fell by 0.53 percentage points after February’s trade deficit...
Is U.S. Wage Growth Slowing Or Not?
The average wage for typical American private‑sector workers increased only 3% over the past six months on a seasonally‑adjusted basis, aligning with pre‑pandemic norms and trailing the 4.1% annualized growth seen from mid‑2023 to mid‑2025. The slowdown is driven almost...
Experts Trash Trump's Nightmare Budget
Politicus USA and the Center for a Responsible Federal Budget dissected Donald Trump’s FY 2027 budget proposal, highlighting a dramatic surge in defense spending to $1.5 trillion. The plan adds $350 billion through a new reconciliation bill and $251 billion to base defense discretionary...
US Jobs Report Is Barnburner. Too Bad It’s Stale.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls jumped dramatically in March, reversing a sharp decline seen in February, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The surge was driven largely by returning healthcare workers and a hiring wave in transportation and courier services. While...
What Is the Distribution of Forecasts for the US NFP?
The article explains how the distribution of U.S. non‑farm payroll (NFP) forecasts can shape market reactions, even when actual data falls within the reported range. Analysts tend to cluster estimates toward the upper bound, so a reading near the lower...
American Manufacturing in Decline? Nope... Ignore the Naysayers
The Institute for Supply Management reported a third consecutive month of expansion in its Manufacturing PMI, signaling continued growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector. This upbeat data directly challenges recent headlines that linked rising job losses to the perceived failure...
Nowcast, Tracking of Private Domestic Final Demand (Aka “Core GDP”)
The Atlanta Fed and Goldman Sachs nowcast shows private domestic final demand, often called “core GDP,” is decelerating. The latest chart reveals growth falling below the 2023‑24 stochastic trend and the March Survey of Professional Forecasters median. All nowcasts rely...
Trump Says Federal Government Can’t Fund Medicare as Iran War Costs Mount
President Donald Trump told a White House Easter audience that the federal government cannot continue funding Medicare, Medicaid, or daycare because escalating military costs from the Iran war are draining the budget. He suggested that states should assume responsibility for...
Anyone Hiring?
Revelio Labs released an alternative hiring impulse metric for the United States, estimating that the economy added fewer than 20,000 jobs on a net basis. The figure was published ahead of the official Good Friday Bureau of Labor Statistics employment...
Business Cycle Indicators – Data Before the War
The NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee released updated coincident indicators covering nonfarm payroll, monthly GDP, retail sales, ADP employment, and freight services, all normalized to January 2025. Preliminary benchmark revisions show a modest slowdown in nonfarm payroll growth and a deceleration...
Could Fed Liquidity Plunge By Half?
The Federal Reserve has outlined a plan to shrink its balance sheet by roughly $1.7 trillion, effectively halving the liquidity it provides to markets. The proposal assumes a high degree of coordination between the Treasury and the Fed, as well as...
Americans Were Back To Shopping On Eve Of Iran War
U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% in the latest Census Bureau report, indicating solid nominal spending on the eve of the looming Iran conflict. Despite an overall price level that is roughly 30% higher than at the start of the decade,...
Some Good News for a Change: Real Retail Sales Rebounded in Febuary
U.S. retail sales for February were released three weeks late but showed a modest rebound. Nominal sales rose 0.6% month‑over‑month, translating to a 0.3% gain in real terms after accounting for 0.3% inflation. On a year‑over‑year basis, real retail sales...
Some Folks Were Hired. Allegedly.
The ADP National Employment Report showed the U.S. private sector added 62,000 jobs in March, well above the 40,000 consensus estimate. Economists had forecast a modest gain, making the actual figure 22,000 higher than expected. The prior month’s ADP data...
The Daily Feather — The Fifth Element
Danielle DiMartino Booth’s Daily Feather post introduces a “fifth element” in the U.S. labor market—labor‑shock capitulation—pointing to a sharp drop in quits, rising job‑insecurity metrics, and a contraction in JOLTS job openings. She argues these signals foretell a structural weakening...
Middle-Class Tax Cut Advances From Finance Committee
Senate Bill 513, approved by Connecticut's Finance Committee, would extend the federal pass‑through entity tax credit to middle‑income earners making over $50,000, offering roughly $1,100 in annual savings. The program lets participants voluntarily reduce their salary in exchange for a...
Anticipating April 10 (March CPI Release)
The Cleveland Federal Reserve nowcast shows headline CPI rising 0.84% month‑over‑month in March, driven largely by sharp increases in gasoline and diesel prices. Weekly gasoline prices are up 26.2% year‑over‑year, while diesel has surged 50.4% over the same period. By...
Job Openings Decline in February as Employers Hit Pause on Hiring
Job openings slipped to 6.9 million in February, down from 7.2 million in January, while total hires fell to 4.8 million, pushing the hiring rate to a low 3.1 %—the weakest since April 2020. Quits edged lower to 3.1 million and layoffs held steady at 1.7 million,...
Real US Housing Wealth Continues To Shrink
US home prices continued to fall in real terms, with the Case‑Shiller 20‑City Index posting only a 1.2% year‑over‑year gain in January, the slowest since July 2023. The broader National Index rose just 0.9% YoY, lagging the 2.4% headline CPI...
US Hiring Rate Dives To 15-Year Low
The U.S. hiring rate has slipped to a 15‑year low, the weakest since 2009. For the eighth straight month, unemployed workers outnumbered available job openings, indicating a shift from the previously tight labor market. Monthly hires fell to roughly 150,000,...
The Fed Chair Just Said What AI Leaders Won't: The Models Don't Work
Fed Chair Jerome Powell publicly expressed his lack of confidence in the economic models used to forecast markets, noting that no system has reliably predicted the economy. He highlighted that while large language models (LLMs) have advanced dramatically, they remain...
American Consumers Hang On, But ‘Skew Towards Pessimism’
U.S. consumer confidence rose in March, with the Conference Board index climbing to 102 and the University of Michigan sentiment index edging up to 71.5. Despite the improvement, the surveys reveal a lingering pessimism about future economic conditions, as expectations...
JOLTs Job Openings for February 6.882 Million versus 6.918 Million Estimate
The Labor Department’s JOLTS report shows February job openings at 6.882 million, missing the 6.918 million forecast. Hires slipped to 4.849 million, while quits fell to 2.974 million, indicating waning worker confidence. Layoffs and discharges rose modestly to 1.721 million. These figures suggest a cooling...
Construction Wage Escalation Reaccelerates
Construction wage growth, which had slowed throughout 2023 and most of 2024, re‑accelerated in November 2024. By February 2025, production‑employee earnings were up 5.1% year‑over‑year, the strongest gain in over two years. Specialty‑trade contractors led the surge, with a 6.5%...
ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Trading Strategy For Stocks
The Institute for Supply Management's Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) gauges U.S. manufacturing health, with readings above 50 indicating expansion. A backtest linking PMI to the S&P 500 shows a 7.3% annual return when the index stays above 50, slightly underperforming...
The Daily Feather — Cooler in Texas
Bison Coolers, a Texas‑born brand, is seeing rapid growth as local consumers seek rugged refrigeration for outdoor work and recreation. Recent data shows the Cooler Industry Sentiment Metric (ISM) climbing, while non‑performing loans (NPLs) across the region are also rising,...
How Much Will Reported Confidence Decline in March?
The Conference Board will release its March consumer confidence index tomorrow, with a nowcast estimate of 86.6 points based on a regression model that incorporates University of Michigan sentiment, gasoline price growth, and lagged confidence. Bloomberg’s consensus forecast is slightly...
U.S. Treasury Rates Weekly Update for March 27, 2026
Long‑term U.S. Treasury yields rose during the week ending March 27, 2026. The 30‑year note gained 0.02 percentage points, while the benchmark 10‑year yield climbed 0.05 points to 4.44 percent. The 3‑year Treasury rate settled at 3.94 percent. The modest increases reflect ongoing market expectations of...
Oil, Sentiment, and the Correction That Nobody Wanted
The S&P 500 closed its fifth straight losing week, falling to 6,368.85 and slipping into correction territory. Oil prices surged, with Brent near $107 per barrel and WTI above $93, pushing the 10‑year Treasury yield to 4.44%, its highest level...
Transcript: Judd Kessler, Lucky by Design
Judd Kessler, a Wharton professor and author of *Lucky by Design*, explains how market design governs the allocation of scarce resources—from organ transplants and school seats to concert tickets and restaurant reservations. He illustrates that many everyday “luck” moments are...
The Daily Feather — Under the Bell Jar
The Daily Feather revisits Sylvia Plath’s *The Bell Jar* as a lens for today’s consumer gloom. It highlights that the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 53.3 in March, the lowest reading since December. The slide is tied...
Market Outlook for the Week of 30th March - 3rd April
The week ahead is data‑heavy, with Eurozone inflation, U.S. payrolls and retail sales, and Canada’s GDP on the calendar. Energy‑price pressure from the Iran conflict could push euro‑area inflation higher, complicating the ECB’s path to price stability. In the United...
What Are the Main Events for Today?
German inflation data, driven by higher energy prices, is set to rise sharply in March, prompting the ECB to consider a June rate hike despite likely looking through the spike. Market pricing reflects a 55% probability of an April hike...
WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT INTEREST RATES AND OIL
The Macrotourist examines whether rising oil prices or higher interest rates are the primary drag on economic growth. Using recent data, the piece shows oil spikes have historically preceded slowdowns, but recent Fed tightening appears to have a more immediate...
The Most Important Charts for the Next Few Weeks
The article highlights a sharp rise in US Treasury yields after an inflation shock tied to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The 10‑year note closed at 4.44%, and analysts warn that a move toward 5% would confirm fears...
Federal Budget, Economic Report of the President, 2026 Coming Out April 3
The White House will release the FY 2026 federal budget on April 3, three months later than the statutory February 2 deadline. The accompanying Economic Report of the President must follow within ten days, setting the fiscal agenda for the...
Bigger Isn't Better: A Case For Downsizing The Federal Reserve
The article argues that the Federal Reserve’s 24,000‑person workforce is bloated and calls for a 20‑30% staff reduction, especially among economists. It urges a comprehensive audit of the Fed’s self‑funded budget, which has consistently outpaced federal spending. The piece highlights...
Can America’s Teetering Jobs Market Avoid Back-To-Back Losses?
Traders are eyeing the upcoming U.S. jobs report amid a fragile labor market that could see consecutive weekly losses. Recent data show hiring slowing while unemployment hovers near historic lows, raising concerns about momentum. However, asset price swings are being...
Newsquawk Week Ahead Highlights (and Week in Review): 30th March – 3rd April 2026
The week ahead is dominated by central‑bank minutes and key data releases that could reshape monetary policy trajectories. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s minutes reveal a hawkish tone after a 25‑basis‑point hike to 4.10%, while the Eurozone’s CPI flash jumps...
U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead
The week of March 30‑April 1 will be unusually quiet in Washington as Congress and most regulators pause for Easter and Passover, but key events include a moderated discussion with Fed Chair Jay Powell at Harvard and Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman...
Bending the Curve of Health Care Costs (At Last?)
Health care spending in the U.S. rose from about 5% of GDP in 1960 to 17% in 2010, then slowed markedly after 2010. Cutler and Klarnet attribute the slowdown to five factors—cost‑saving technology (≈21%), reduced demand (10‑26%), supply‑side price reductions...
Sentiment Dives to Near “Liberation Day” Levels
The University of Michigan’s final March consumer sentiment index slipped to 53.3, down from the preliminary 55.5 reading. Expectations fell 4.9 points from February, outpacing the 2‑point dip in current conditions caused by higher gasoline prices. Analysts attribute the broader...