Double-Barreled War Risk Bombs Household Mood
U.S. consumer confidence slipped sharply in March as the Michigan sentiment index was revised down to 53.3, a six‑percent decline from February and the lowest reading recorded in 2026. The drop reflects heightened anxiety over the war‑induced surge in gasoline prices, which have eroded household purchasing power. Analysts note that the deteriorating mood could translate into reduced consumer spending, especially on non‑essential goods. The trend adds pressure on policymakers to balance inflation control with economic growth.
U.S. Jobless Claims Tick Up, Labor Market In “Zero-Growth” Phase
U.S. initial unemployment claims edged up by 5,000 to 210,000 for the week ending March 21, aligning with economists’ expectations. Continuing claims dropped to 1.819 million, the lowest level since May 2024, indicating a tightening labor market. The Federal Reserve is...
Jobless Claims Hover Near Record Lows Sustaining 'No Hire, No Fire' Narrative
Initial unemployment claims held steady at 210.5 k, matching the prior week and hovering near the lowest levels recorded since 1969. Continuing claims fell to 1.819 million, the smallest figure since May 2024, reinforcing the trend of a tight labor market. Bloomberg’s sentiment...
The Daily Feather — Not Importing Progress
At the March 18 FOMC press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell asked whether policymakers should look through the surge in oil prices triggered by the Iran‑Ukraine conflict. Recent data show import prices for consumer goods and industrial supplies climbing 5‑6% year‑over‑year,...
Ever Wonder Where $7 Trillion Goes?
On March 10, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget released “Break Glass,” warning that the U.S. has virtually no fiscal space to absorb another shock. National debt has climbed to roughly 130% of GDP, surpassing the World War II peak...
Barclays: ECB Set to Hike as Energy Shock Hits Europe, Fed Likely to Stay on Hold
Barclays predicts the European Central Bank will begin tightening as early as next month, with two rate hikes anticipated in 2024, driven by a renewed energy‑inflation shock stemming from the Middle East conflict. In contrast, the Federal Reserve is expected...
Fed's Miran, Trump's Puppet at the Bank, Calls for Rate Cuts, Like He Always Does
Federal Reserve Governor Miran delivered a strongly dovish speech, arguing that inflation risks are muted despite a recent oil price surge. He cited measurement challenges and minimal impact on market inflation expectations, while warning that the labor market is on...
War Dashes Spring Home Hopes For American Renters
The escalating war with Iran is hitting the U.S. rental market just as spring home‑buying optimism waned. Higher energy prices and supply‑chain disruptions are pushing landlords to raise rents, while prospective buyers face tighter credit and lingering mortgage‑rate uncertainty. The...
Easing Capital, Reviving Risk: The Quiet Return of Too Big to Fail
The U.S. regulator’s latest proposal to ease capital adequacy rules for the nation’s largest banks marks a reversal of post‑2008 reforms aimed at curbing systemic risk. Critics argue the move weakens loss‑absorbing buffers, reviving the “too‑big‑to‑fail” dynamic that forces taxpayers...
WEEKLY WEBCAST: From Powell To Warsh
The webcast examines Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s nominee to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and his likely dovish stance under presidential pressure. It models three possible durations of the Iran conflict to gauge their impact on monetary policy under Warsh...
Interview with Erika McEntarfer: Firings and Federal Statistics
Erika McEntarfer, former Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, was abruptly dismissed by President Trump on August 1, 2025. She recounts a chaotic termination day and a prior encounter with the Department of Government Efficiency, which proposed replacing statisticians with...
February 2026 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update
Core CPI excluding shelter has hovered near a 2% annual rate for almost four years, while rent inflation is finally showing signs of moderation. The article argues that continued new home construction is essential to keep rent growth in check....
U.S. Treasury Rates Weekly Update for March 20, 2026
U.S. Treasury yields rose for a third consecutive week, with the 30‑year rate up 0.06 percentage points and the 10‑year climbing 0.11 points to 4.39%. The 3‑year Treasury held steady at 3.90%. The upward movement reflects market expectations of sustained...
Yahoo Finance: “The US Economy May Be Strong — but It’s Delicate”
The U.S. economy remains resilient, yet signs of fragility are emerging. DataTrek’s Jessica Rabe highlights a sharp decline in the job‑openings‑to‑unemployed ratio, now below 1.0x at 0.9x, though still above the 0.7x long‑run norm. Rising oil prices could disrupt the...
THE FED IS IN CHECKMATE & JUST DOESN'T KNOW IT YET: Why the U.S. Debt Spiral Guarantees a New Era...
U.S. federal debt has breached $39 trillion, up $2 trillion in eight months and $2.8 trillion since the July 2025 debt‑ceiling suspension. The Congressional Budget Office now projects debt climbing to about $64 trillion by 2036, roughly $2.4 trillion annually. This trajectory forces the Federal...
Anemic Labor Market and the End of Passive Money Flows
U.S. labor market weakness is simultaneously curbing both supply and demand, ending the steady inflow of passive capital into equities. Immigration has stalled, population growth slowed to 0.5%, and labor‑force participation fell back to 62%, while AI and higher rates...
Operation ‘Rage Flip’
Operation ‘Rage Flip’ erupted in late March, exposing extreme price volatility as a chart‑driven rally flipped a steep decline into a rapid surge. Traders on the floor, including Stephen Walton, described the move as a herd‑culling event that overwhelmed typical...
Steady Today, Uncertain Tomorrow: Iran War Tests US Resilience
The Iran war has so far left the US economy largely intact, with the Atlanta Fed nowcasting a 2.1% annualized Q1 GDP rise and the Dallas Fed’s Weekly Economic Index at 2.6%, suggesting stable activity through mid‑March. While global oil...
SOFR Path Change Relative to 2/27
The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s Market Probability Tracker released a revised three‑month average SOFR outlook covering June 2026 through December 2028. The new projection lifts the expected rate path relative to the February 27 forecast, placing the current target range at 350‑375 basis points....
US New Home Sales Collapse
U.S. new‑home sales plunged in February, posting a 9.5% month‑over‑month decline—the steepest drop since 2013. The slowdown coincided with mortgage rates hovering above 7%, weakening buyer affordability. Builder confidence fell to its lowest level since 2020, and unsold inventory rose...
The Daily Feather — Pareidolia Spells No Fed Relief
The U.S. producer price index (PPI) posted a 0.7% headline increase, with core and core‑core measures both rising 0.5%, outpacing market forecasts. The stronger‑than‑expected numbers underscore lingering inflationary pressure despite recent easing in consumer price trends. The post uses the...
CPI/Powell, Downdraws in Stocks and Timelines
The latest Consumer Price Index showed a modest 0.3% monthly increase, bringing the annual inflation rate to 3.2%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized a cautious stance, warning against premature rate cuts. The data sparked a 1.2% pullback in the S&P...
The Five Year Inflation Breakeven at 2.66%
The five‑year Treasury‑TIPS breakeven inflation rate has climbed to 2.66%, marking a 0.26‑percentage‑point increase since the onset of the war. The rise is captured alongside the DKW model’s inflation expectations, both plotted against the Treasury spread. A parallel chart links...
Mortgage Rates Move Back Up Near Recent Highs
Mortgage rates rebounded Wednesday, climbing to the highest levels seen in several months after three rapid repricings. A stronger-than-expected Producer Price Index lifted inflation expectations, while a $6 jump in crude oil pushed bond yields higher. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s...
Regular Folk Prices
The Cleveland Federal Reserve released a nowcast for March headline CPI that blends traditional CPI and PCE data with daily oil and weekly gasoline prices. Rising oil prices—Brent near $109 and gasoline at $3.72 per gallon—are pushing the nowcast upward....
‘Standard Learning’
Jerome Powell’s Wednesday press conference highlighted two core messages. First, the Federal Reserve is still waiting for tariff‑related price pressures to filter through the economy, a lag that officials hope will resolve around mid‑year. Second, Powell emphasized that it is...
Fed On Hold, Retains 2026 Rate Projection Amid War Angst
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at the 5.25%‑5.50% range, reaffirming its projection that rates will remain at this level through 2026. The decision followed a two‑day policy meeting marked by cautious deliberations but no...
The Fed Holds — And Every Word Matters
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep its policy rate at the 3.50%‑3.75% range, marking a second consecutive pause after three 25‑basis‑point cuts in late 2025. Markets have already priced in the hold, so investors will focus on Chair Jerome...
Wholesale Inflation Rose Sharply Ahead Of Iran War
U.S. wholesale price growth accelerated sharply in March 2026, marking the third consecutive month of above‑trend increases according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Wholesale Price Index rose 0.7% month‑over‑month and 4.2% year‑over‑year, the fastest pace since 2022. The...
The Goods Trade Deficit Adjusted for Gold
The latest balance‑of‑payments data shows that when the U.S. goods trade balance is adjusted for gold, the deficit expands beyond the headline figure. The red line in the chart, representing the gold‑adjusted balance, sits noticeably lower than the blue unadjusted...
Stellar 20Y Auction Stops Through Amid Surge In Foreign Demand
The U.S. Treasury auctioned $13 bn of 20‑year notes at a 4.817% yield, stopping 0.7 bps through the issue price. Bid‑to‑cover climbed to 2.76, outpacing the six‑auction average. Foreign indirect demand surged to 69.2%, the highest since April 2025, while direct bidder participation...
The Daily Feather — Shockers
The Daily Feather’s new post spotlights the oddball nicknames of U.S. colleges, zeroing in on Wichita State University’s “Shockers.” It traces the Shockers moniker to early 20th‑century wheat‑harvesting students who earned a reputation for “shocking” the grain. The article pairs...
US Industrial Production Rises For 4th Straight Month In February (0.2% MoM, 1.4% YoY)
U.S. industrial production posted a fourth consecutive monthly gain in February, rising 0.2% month‑over‑month and 1.44% year‑over‑year, outpacing the 0.1% consensus. Manufacturing output mirrored the broader trend, also expanding 0.2% MoM, with durable goods edging up 0.1% and nondurables up...
Stagnant Job Turnover Shows Employers, Workers Cautious Amid Uncertainty
The January 2026 JOLTS report shows labor turnover stalled despite job openings rising to 6.9 million. Total hires held steady at 5.3 million and quits slipped to 3.1 million, while layoffs edged down, reinforcing a “no‑hire, no‑fire” environment. This follows a 2025 slowdown...
US February Industrial Production vs +0.2% Expected
U.S. industrial production rose 0.2% in February, edging past the 0.1% forecast and following a robust 0.7% gain in January. Capacity utilization held at 76.3%, still well below its long‑run average, signaling lingering slack in the sector. Manufacturing output matched...
March Empire Fed Manufacturing Survey Index -0.20 versus 3.90 Estimate
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey slipped to a -0.20 index in March, well below the 3.90 estimate. New orders edged higher while shipments plunged, creating a mixed demand picture. Delivery times stretched and supply availability weakened, yet employment rose modestly...
The Sacrifice Ratio Puzzle
Inflation surged to 9.1% in mid‑2022 due to pandemic disruptions and the Russia‑Ukraine war, then fell sharply in 2023 despite unemployment staying low. The traditional sacrifice ratio—unemployment needed to cut inflation—proved near zero, challenging Phillips‑curve expectations. Tariff hikes in 2025‑26...
Instantaneous PCE Inflation with Nowcasts/Tracking
Goldman Sachs’ tracking model nudged its February core PCE inflation nowcast higher, while the Cleveland Federal Reserve’s nowcast suggests lower instantaneous inflation for February and March. The two estimates diverge because Goldman Sachs blends judgmental inputs with data, whereas the...
Battle-Weary Fed Confronts Another Supply Shock
The Federal Reserve is confronting a new supply‑side shock that threatens to revive inflationary pressures as geopolitical tensions persist. Central banks are diverging, with Australia likely to raise rates again while Europe and the UK pause policy tightening. This split...
Pre-War/Conflict/”Excursion” GDP, Core GDP, and Nowcasts
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow nowcast for Q4 2025 shows a modest slowdown, trailing the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) projection. Goldman Sachs, assuming a 21‑day Strait of Hormuz disruption, trims its growth estimate from 2.5 % to 2.2 % year‑over‑year. The SPF survey, collected...
A Recessionary Bear Ahead?
Betting markets have lifted the implied probability of a U.S. recession in 2026 following the onset of Gulf War III, signaling heightened concern over an oil‑price shock. Although the implied recession odds have eased slightly since their peak, they remain well...
Business Cycle Indicators: GDP Growth Downshifts, Consumption Slows, Downside Surprise
The latest business‑cycle data show Q4 GDP growth slashed by roughly half compared with the prior estimate, while consumer spending missed consensus by almost 0.5 percentage point on an annualized basis. Revised non‑farm payroll figures indicate a modest downward bias...
Gundlach Unlocked: Positioning for Inflation and a Weaker Dollar
In the debut episode of Gundlach Unlocked, DoubleLine founder Jeffrey Gundlach warned that inflation is likely to stay above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target and that long‑term rates have stalled despite recent cuts. He also sees the U.S. dollar entering a...
Weekly: War Comes To The US Front-End
U.S. Treasury markets experienced a sharp front‑end rally this week, with two‑year yields climbing roughly 20 basis points while ten‑year yields added about 12 basis points. The differential move produced a bear‑flattened curve, indicating heightened short‑term rate pressure. Market participants...
More Questions Than Answers: Thinking Through Recession Risks
The ongoing Middle East conflict is driving oil prices up, reviving concerns about a U.S. recession. Economists note that higher energy costs could reignite inflation, forcing the Federal Reserve to balance rate cuts against potential hikes. Multiple geopolitical flashpoints—from Iran...
Goldman Sachs Raises Recession Odds To 25%, Warns U.S. Economy Is Slipping As Jobs Slow
Goldman Sachs lifted its 12‑month recession probability to 25%, up five points after February’s disappointing jobs report and rising oil prices. The bank highlighted a 92,000‑job loss, unemployment climbing to 4.44% and a projected 4.6% rate by Q3, signaling a...
Fed’s Favorite Core Inflation Measure Hit Multi-Year High Before War
U.S. core inflation accelerated to a 3.1% year‑over‑year increase in January 2026, the fastest pace in nearly two years. The Bureau of Economic Analysis released the data after a delay caused by the prolonged government shutdown. This measure, the Fed’s...
US Economy Gets Sharp Downgrade In Stagflationary GDP Update
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis revised fourth‑quarter 2024 GDP growth to roughly 0.5% annualized, half of the initially reported rate. The slowdown coincides with persistently high inflation, reinforcing concerns of a stagflationary environment. Business leaders across diverse sectors report...
Betting on Recession 2026: Up to 32% Fm 21% Pre-War
Market‑based platforms are signaling a notable recession risk for the United States by the end of 2026. Polymarket’s probability sits at 32%, down from a recent 37% peak, while Kalshi’s odds have climbed to 31.6% after a February surge. Goldman...
“How Energy Prices Figure Into the Fed’s Interest Rate Decisions”
The Federal Reserve’s rate‑setting calculus is increasingly tied to volatile energy prices, which have surged amid geopolitical tensions and supply constraints. Market participants are using SOFR and Fed Funds futures to price the likelihood of upcoming policy moves, with recent...