Stocks Are The ‘Vigilantes’ Now
The article argues that equities have taken over the role once played by bonds as the market’s watchdog, pressuring the Federal Reserve and policymakers. With the Fed’s policy rate stuck at 3.75% and inflation expectations near 4.8%, traditional monetary easing is off the table. Instead, the Fed may rely on balance‑sheet runoff and yield‑curve control while fiscal space is constrained by $102 oil prices and a deficit equal to 7% of GDP. The piece also critiques the political climate, suggesting that current policy rhetoric adds inflationary risk.
Existing Home Sales Crumble, Outlook Cut On Higher Rates
Existing home sales in the United States dropped sharply as mortgage rates climbed, prompting analysts to cut the market outlook. The median age of the housing stock is now 44 years, meaning many homes require expensive updates to electrical, plumbing,...
Iran War May Widen 10-Year Yield’s Market Premium Vs. Fair Value
The US 10‑year Treasury yield remains above the Capital Spectator’s fair‑value estimate of roughly 4.0%, closing at 4.34% after a brief rise to 4.50% in late March. A market premium that spiked over a percentage point during the 2022‑23 inflation...
The Daily Feather — Ingmar, Not Ingrid
The University of Michigan’s preliminary April consumer‑sentiment survey recorded an all‑time low, with 98% of interviews completed before the April 7 cease‑fire announcement. Analysts caution that the final results, due in two weeks, could show a rebound if geopolitical tensions ease....
Navigating Long-Term Unemployment In A Shifting Job Market
Official unemployment rates remain low, yet a growing cohort of professionals has been job‑searching for six months or more without success. CNBC reports that long‑term unemployment has become a persistent feature of today’s labor market, driven by a mismatch between...
April 12, 2026
President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs were declared unconstitutional, leaving $175 billion in illegal duties unpaid to importers and accruing roughly $23 million in daily interest. The Supreme Court ruling comes as inflation surged to 3.3%, driven by a 21.2% jump in...
Instantaneous Inflation in March
The Cleveland Federal Reserve’s nowcast model reveals March’s instantaneous inflation rates for the PCE deflator, CPI quarter‑on‑quarter annualized, and PPI. The chart shows the three measures diverging, with the PCE deflator hovering near the Fed’s 2% target while CPI remains...
Detrended Consumer Sentiment
Preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment fell to a record low in April, marking the deepest reading in the series. Detrended analysis shows sentiment has been trending downward for roughly the past 15 years, reinforcing the so‑called “vibecession” narrative of...
THE $7 TRILLION FLOOR: It's 50% Above Pandemic Levels as a Starting Point, It's Expanding Again, & Why the Fed's...
The Federal Reserve has ended its balance‑sheet runoff and resumed large‑scale asset purchases, effectively restarting a new quantitative‑easing phase. The central bank’s balance sheet now hovers around $7 trillion, more than 50% above its pre‑pandemic size, establishing a higher permanent floor....
Economic Report of the President, 2026 Out on Monday
The White House will publish the Economic Report of the President (ERP) for 2026 on Monday. The report’s baseline GDP forecast mirrors the numbers presented in the FY 2026 budget, which rely on November data and assume an out‑of‑balance (OBE) scenario...
CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
Hedge funds (non‑commercial speculators) have deepened their bearish bets on long‑duration Treasuries, pushing net short positions in 10‑year note futures to 823.6 k contracts—a 5% weekly rise—and expanding 30‑year shorts to 59 k, up 86% week‑over‑week. In commodities, they remain net long...
Warsh and the Fed's Balance Sheet
Kevin Warsh, a Fed chair hopeful, argues that shrinking the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet will free up stimulus that can be redirected into lower fed‑funds rates. The piece challenges that view, noting that reserve balances—about $3 trillion, roughly 9% of U.S....
US Government Sold $620 Billion of Treasury Securities This Week. 10-Year Yield Ends at 4.31%, 30-Year Yield at 4.91%
The U.S. Treasury auctioned $620 billion of securities this week, including $480 billion of short‑term bills and $140 billion of 3‑year, 10‑year and 30‑year notes and bonds. The 10‑year note cleared at a 4.282 % yield and settled at 4.32 % in the secondary market,...
Republican Hopes Spring Eternal (Iran War/Economics Edition)
The University of Michigan’s latest consumer sentiment survey shows a modest decline in optimism for both Republicans and Democrats, but the partisan gap widens on expectations. Republican expectations slipped about 2.5% from February, while Democratic expectations plunged roughly 26%, far...
Inflation in March, and a Year From Now…
Iran has warned it will not resume talks or keep the Strait of Hormuz open until Israel stops bombing Lebanon, linking the conflict directly to its diplomatic leverage. In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a looming corruption trial that...
US March Budget Deficit for March -$164.00 Billion versus -$156.75 Billion Estimate
The U.S. federal budget posted a $164 billion deficit for March, missing the $156.75 billion forecast and slightly widening from the $161 billion deficit a year earlier. Year‑to‑date for fiscal 2026, the deficit fell 11% to $1.169 trillion versus $1.307 trillion in 2025. March revenues...
THE $9.6 TRILLION TREASURY MATURITY WALL: How the 2026 Debt Cliff, the $39T U.S. Debt Crisis, & the $1.2T Interest...
The U.S. federal debt now incurs over $1.2 trillion in annual interest, consuming roughly 23% of tax revenue and poised to become the largest budget line item. A "maturity wall" of $8‑9.6 trillion in Treasury securities will come due in 2026, forcing...
Standardized Sentiment in the Time of Trump
The latest standardized consumer‑sentiment composite fell to 47.6, missing the 51.6 consensus and down from 53.3 in the previous period. The chart tracks the University of Michigan, Conference Board and Gallup surveys from Q4 2019 through Q2 2026, all demeaned and scaled...
Inflated Week in Review
Egg prices fell to their lowest level since early 2022, marking a 12‑month decline, while the gas component of the CPI surged to its biggest monthly gain since 1967. The ISM Services PMI showed a 21st consecutive month of expansion,...
15 Months Into ‘Golden Age,’ American Mood Hits Record Low
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to a preliminary 47.6 in April, the lowest reading in the gauge’s decades‑long history. Analysts had expected a reading near 55, so the drop far missed consensus. The plunge ends 15 months...
Trump Makes History With Near-Record Energy Cost Surge
U.S. headline inflation surged in March 2026, driven by a sharp rise in oil prices that lifted the all‑items CPI to its highest level since June 2022. Gasoline prices in Southern California peaked at $6.79 per gallon, a local record...
March Inflation Sets I Bond’s New Variable Rate at 3.34%
The Treasury announced that the March Consumer Price Index has set the new I Bond variable rate at 3.34% annualized, reflecting a modest slowdown in six‑month inflation. This rate applies to all newly issued I Bonds and will be combined with the...
The Market Brief
A two‑week ceasefire between the United States and Iran has eased geopolitical tension, sending U.S. equity indexes higher. The S&P 500 is on track for its largest weekly gain since November, while the Dow Jones aims for its strongest weekly...
Connecticut Payrolls Hit All-Time High Even as Trump Eliminates Federal Jobs
Connecticut’s payrolls reached a new high in January 2026, adding 5,300 jobs, driven largely by a 5,000‑job gain in the private sector. Federal employment in the state declined by 1,200 positions, reflecting ongoing cuts under the Trump administration. Total nonfarm...
DON'T BE A VICTIM OF THE MATH: The M2 Explosion That's Coming, Inevitable Debt Monetization & How to Protect Your...
The United States faces a projected cumulative deficit of $22 trillion over the next ten years, far exceeding official forecasts that assume no new wars or recessions. To fund this gap, the Federal Reserve will likely resort to massive balance‑sheet expansion,...
“Low-Hire, Low-Fire” U.S. Economy Holds As External Risks Mount
U.S. unemployment claims ticked up to 219,000 last week, staying near expectations and signaling a still‑stable labor market despite heightened geopolitical risk. Inflation pressures are rising, with headline CPI projected to climb about 1% in March and core PCE hovering...
Business Cycle Indicators – Final GDP, GDO, Personal Income
The latest U.S. data releases show personal income excluding transfers slipped 0.1% month‑over‑month, falling short of Bloomberg’s +0.4% consensus. February household consumption also edged lower than analysts expected. Both metrics are among the two primary series the NBER Business Cycle...
Mortgage Rates Trickle Just a Bit Lower
Mortgage rates edged lower on April 10, 2026, with the average 30‑year fixed rate slipping to 6.39%, a 0.02‑percentage‑point drop from the previous day. The modest decline followed headlines of de‑escalation in the Israel‑Lebanon conflict, which temporarily eased oil‑price concerns....
Very Low Jobless Claims Continue
Jobless claims remained exceptionally low, with initial filings edging up 16,000 to 219,000 and the four‑week moving average reaching 209,500. Continuing claims dropped sharply to 1.794 million, the lowest level in two years. Year‑over‑year figures showed a 1.8% decline in initial...
Slower Wage Growth, Inflation Could Spell Trouble for Employee Earnings
Employers added 178,000 jobs in March, reversing a 133,000‑job loss in February. However, average hourly earnings rose only 0.2% month‑over‑month, the weakest pace in nearly five years. Rising oil prices have lifted inflation expectations to about 3% this year, threatening...
Significant Downgrades to Fourth-Quarter 2025 GDP, What Happened?
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis revised fourth‑quarter 2025 real GDP down to a 0.5% annualized gain, a 0.2‑percentage‑point drop from the second estimate and far below the Bloomberg consensus of no change. The downgrade marks the second consecutive negative revision...
Unpacking the Healthcare Hiring Boom
The healthcare and social assistance sector added roughly 1.7 million jobs since the start of 2024, while all other industries collectively shed about 56,000 positions. Almost half of the new jobs are concentrated in nursing care facilities and services for the...
Fed’s Favored Inflation Measure Warm Again. GDI Rescues Q4 Growth
The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.4% month‑over‑month in February, an unrounded 0.367% increase that marks a third consecutive warm reading on the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. Economists had expected another elevated figure, underscoring persistent price...
US February PCE Inflation 2.8% Y/Y vs 2.8% Expected
U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation held steady at 2.8% year‑over‑year in February, matching the consensus forecast. Core PCE, which strips out food and energy, rose to 3.0% YoY, up from 2.8% in January and also met expectations. While headline...
US Initial Jobless Claims 219K vs 210K Estimate
U.S. initial jobless claims climbed to 219,000 last week, missing the 210,000 forecast and nudging the four‑week average to 209.5K. Continuing claims eased to 1.794 million, also below expectations. The data suggests a modest softening but the labor market remains historically...
US Final Q4 GDP +0.5% vs +0.7% Expected
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released the final fourth‑quarter 2023 GDP figure, showing a 0.5% annualized increase—below the 0.7% consensus estimate. The downgrade stems mainly from a downward revision to investment, while consumer spending and corporate profits still posted...
Q1 GDP Poised for Rebound as Fragile Ceasefire Clouds Outlook
The median nowcast from CapitalSpectator forecasts a 2.3% rise in U.S. first‑quarter GDP, rebounding from a modest 0.7% gain in Q4. This optimism depends on a fragile cease‑fire in the Iran‑Israel conflict, which still clouds the outlook for Q2. However,...
The Daily Feather — The Lunch Break War
The Daily Feather’s “Lunch Break War” piece reminds readers that ceasefires seldom end hostilities, citing the Iran‑War as a modern example and the 1896 Anglo‑Zanzibar War as the record‑shortest conflict. The post pairs this historical note with a dense chart...
US CPI Report Coming up Tomorrow, What to Expect?
The March U.S. Consumer Price Index is slated for release tomorrow, with economists projecting a 0.9% month‑over‑month rise in headline CPI, up from 0.3% in February, and a 3.3% year‑over‑year increase. Core CPI is expected to climb 0.3% m/m, translating...
Cleveland Fed Quarterly CPI Inflation Estimate Surges to 5.5 Percent for Q2
The Cleveland Federal Reserve’s nowcast shows a steep rise in second‑quarter inflation, with the annualized CPI projected at 5.5 percent and the PCE index at 4.6 percent—both far above the Fed’s 2 percent target. Core inflation remains modest, with core CPI near 2.6 percent...
Workers of the US: Were You Better Off in February 2026 than Today?
The latest analysis of average hourly earnings, expressed in CPI‑deflated 2025 dollars, shows a modest decline from early 2025 levels. Using the Cleveland Fed nowcast and Bloomberg consensus, real wages are trending lower, while the AIER Everyday Price Index paints...
WEEKLY WEBCAST: Anatomy Of The US Labor Market
The latest U.S. jobs report showed a rebound in payrolls and a dip in the unemployment rate, but Dr. Ed and Elias argue the headline looks misleading. Their webcast points out that the inflation‑adjusted Earned Income Proxy fell as price...
The Longest Economic Boom Ever?
The United States has kept its unemployment rate below 5% for 125 straight months since the fall of 2015, eclipsing the previous record set between 1965 and 1970. The author argues that the pandemic‑driven recovery was not a typical credit...
March CPI Inflation Preview: Q/Q AR at 5.2% to 5.9%
The Cleveland Federal Reserve’s nowcast projects March headline CPI rising at an annualized quarter‑on‑quarter rate of 5.2%‑5.9%, slightly above the Bloomberg consensus. The nowcast blends recent CPI and PCE releases with daily oil and gasoline price data, indicating inflation remains...
Cleveland Fed Projects Highest Month-Over-Month Inflation Levels Since June 2022
The Cleveland Federal Reserve’s nowcast model indicates that March’s month‑over‑month CPI rose 0.84%, the strongest increase since June 2022, while core PCE inflation is projected at 0.23%. Market pricing on CME’s FedWatch shows a 63.2% probability that the Federal Reserve will...
AI Eliminating 16,000 U.S. Jobs Every Month, Goldman Sachs Reports
Goldman Sachs economists estimate AI has eliminated about 16,000 net U.S. jobs each month over the past year. Their analysis separates AI's substitution effect, which removed roughly 25,000 jobs monthly, from its augmentation effect, which created about 9,000. The displacement...
How Federal Spending Is Distributed to the Elderly, Working Age, and Children
Kent Smetters’ Penn Wharton analysis re‑allocates the 2025 U.S. federal budget by age group, revealing $2.7 trillion directed to the elderly, $1.2 trillion to working‑age adults, and $448 billion to people under 26. The remaining $2.6 trillion covers all‑ages programs such as defense, net...
The Fed, Congress, and the President: The Constitutional Authority to Make Money
Christine Desan argues that the Federal Reserve is not merely an independent regulator but the institutional embodiment of Congress’s constitutional prerogative to create money. The paper traces the historical shift of money‑making from monarchs to legislatures, showing how the U.S....
Fed Walks a Policy Tightrope as Iran Conflict Clouds the Outlook
The Federal Reserve is navigating a precarious policy landscape as the Iran war rattles energy markets and fuels inflation uncertainty. Officials, including Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammock, argue for keeping the policy rate steady while monitoring labor market and price...
The Daily Feather — Reelin’ in North America
The Daily Feather’s latest post highlights a sharp dip in North American consumer confidence, driven by a cost shock that is straining both U.S. and Canadian service sectors. Graphs in the piece show U.S. services grappling with rising expenses, while...