ERCOT Says Texas Demand Could Quadruple but Cautions Forecast May Be Inflated
ERCOT’s preliminary long‑term load forecast projects Texas peak electricity demand could soar to 367,790 MW by 2032, roughly four times the 2023 record of 85,508 MW. The surge is attributed to expanding data centers, cryptocurrency mining, and other large‑load industrial customers. Current summer 2026 demand is expected between 90,500 MW and 98,000 MW, well below the 112,000 MW figure in the draft forecast. ERCOT plans to discuss potential adjustments with the Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUCT) and its board in upcoming meetings.
Middle East Escalation Pushes Aluminium Into a Structural Deficit
Escalating tensions in the Middle East have forced key Gulf aluminium smelters to curtail output, turning a logistics shock into a structural supply deficit. Emirates Global Aluminium halted its Al Taweelah plant, while Alba operates at roughly 30% of capacity and...
Europe Has Six Weeks of Jet Fuel Left Caused by 'Dire Strait' Crisis, IEA Chief Warns
The International Energy Agency warned that Europe has roughly six weeks of jet fuel left as the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked by the Iran war. Airports Council International Europe says shortages could begin in early May if tankers cannot...
Morning Reads
The Iran war has driven U.S. gasoline to $4.09 per gallon and WTI crude to $93 a barrel, a 37% jump since Feb 28. U.S. crude exports rose to 5.2 million barrels per day, narrowing the import‑export gap to just 66,000 bpd and...
India Could Limit Sulphur Exports as Supplies Tighten, Sources Say
India is weighing limits on sulphur exports as domestic supplies tighten amid falling Middle East imports and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The country imports about 2 million metric tons a year, roughly half from the Middle East, while shipping...
India Imports LNG From US, Oman, and Nigeria in March as Qatar, UAE Supplies Dry Up
India’s LNG imports fell 20% year‑on‑year to 1.2 million tonnes in March 2026 after Qatar and UAE cargoes stopped amid escalating Middle‑East tensions. The shortfall, equivalent to about 47.4 MSCMD of gas, was partially offset by higher shipments from the United States, Oman and...
Bunker Fuel Prices Begin to Stabilise – but Not at All Ports
Bunker fuel prices are beginning to stabilise at Singapore, the world’s largest bunkering hub, after an early surge that saw very‑low‑sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) breach $1,000 per tonne. The stabilisation reflects ample local stocks and fierce competition that keeps margins...
Indian Restaurants' 'Slowdown' Is Ringing up a ₹79,000 Cr Bill as Iran War Chokes LPG Supply
A West Asia war‑driven LPG shortage is hitting India’s restaurant sector with an estimated monthly loss of about ₹79,000 crore (≈ $9.5 billion), according to PHDCCI. The disruption has forced roughly 10% of eateries to shut temporarily and 60‑70% to switch to induction or...
PV Module Prices Continue to Rise Unabated
Photovoltaic module prices climbed for the fourth month in a row, rising 5.5% between March and April 2026, with all‑black modules posting the steepest gains. The increase occurs despite falling polysilicon costs and the removal of Chinese export tax credits,...
CZPT Set Zinc Concentrates TC Guidance at $35-70 per Tonne for Q2 2026 Purchasing
Fastmarkets reports that the China Zinc and Lead Producers’ Association (CZPT) has cut its Q2 2026 zinc concentrate transaction cost (TC) guidance to $35‑70 per tonne, a $60 per tonne reduction from the $105‑120 range set for Q1 2026. Spot...
The Chocolate Tastes Bitter at Barry Callebaut
Barry Callebaut, the Swiss chocolate giant, reported a more than 7% revenue drop to CHF 6.75 billion (≈$7.4 billion) in the first half of its fiscal year, driven by supply‑chain disruptions linked to the war in Iran and excess cocoa capacity. Sales volumes...
Ivanhoe Mines Sees Strong Local Demand for Sulphuric Acid in DRC Amid Global Supply Tightness
Ivanhoe Mines has begun commercial sales of sulphuric acid, a copper‑processing by‑product, to other miners along the Democratic Republic of Congo’s copper belt. The company produced just over 100,000 tonnes in Q1 and expects output to climb to 600,000‑700,000 tonnes...
Three Scenarios for Energy, Central Banks, Rates and FX Markets
ING outlines three energy‑price scenarios tied to the Middle East cease‑fire outlook. In a base case, Brent crude steadies at $90‑100 per barrel and the euro trades around 1.18‑1.20 by year‑end. A moderate disruption pushes Brent above $100 and lifts...
Energy Market Outlook Hinges on the Middle East
Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain largely cut off, tightening the physical market and creating a $30‑per‑barrel premium for dated Brent over futures. About 13 million barrels per day are offline, prompting demand‑destruction measures in Asia and likely elsewhere....
Oil Prices Holding Firm
Oil prices are stabilizing after a sharp pullback from war‑driven panic levels, with Brent sliding from a recent high of $111.80 to a 28‑day low of $90.40. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a 0.9 million‑barrel draw in commercial crude inventories...
Alphamin Says Tin Price Sustainable as Stars Align
Alphamin, a DRC‑based tin miner listed on the JSE and TSX, is on track to post a record quarter with earnings of about $158 million, thanks to tin prices climbing from $30,000 to a peak near $60,000 per tonne and now...
Iran War: Six Weeks in, How Have Food Prices Changed?
Food prices have risen since the Iran war began, but seasonal planting has limited the immediate impact. Vegetable oils, especially soybean oil, surged to two‑year highs as they act as crude oil substitutes in biofuel production. Grains and oilseeds have...
Strait of Hormuz Disruption and Global Supply Implications>
In Q1 2026 the U.S.–Iran conflict shut the Strait of Hormuz, cutting roughly 40% of global nitrogen trade and 20% of LNG supply. The chokepoint closure drove Brent crude from about $61 to a peak above $117 per barrel before diplomatic...
Thursday Briefing: What It Will Take for Britain to Break up with Natural Gas
Britain’s economy remains tightly linked to natural‑gas prices, a relationship that exploded into a cost‑of‑living crisis after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. A new geopolitical flashpoint – the US‑Israel strike on Iran – threatens to push gas prices higher,...
Fuel Rollback: Diesel May Drop ₱20, Gasoline ₱3 Next Week
Fuel prices in the Philippines are set to retreat next week as easing Middle‑East tensions push global benchmarks lower. Industry data based on the Platts Singapore mean projects diesel to drop ₱18‑20 per liter (about $0.36) and gasoline to fall...
What Does the Geelong Refinery Fire Reveal About Australia’s Fuel Supplies?
Late Wednesday a fire broke out at Viva Energy's Geelong refinery in Corio, believed to be caused by equipment failure. The plant, which can process up to 120,000 barrels per day and supplies more than half of Victoria’s fuel and...
Fashion Briefing: Gold Prices Are Skyrocketing, Squeezing the Jewelry Industry’s Margins in Uncomfortable Ways
Gold prices have surged dramatically, with futures topping $5,500 in January and analysts now projecting levels near $6,000 by year‑end. The rally is fueled by persistent inflation and heightened Middle East tensions, which have reinforced gold’s safe‑haven appeal. This price...
Oil Prices Trade Subdued Amid Fragile Ceasefire, Peace Deal Hopes
Oil prices edged lower on Thursday as Brent slipped to $94.68 and WTI to $90.96, reflecting a modest 0.26% and 0.36% decline respectively. Market sentiment was tempered by optimism over a cease‑fire expected to hold through 21 April and renewed Iran‑US...
ICYMI - Reports that Iran Proposes Partial Hormuz Reopening for Ships via Oman Waters
Iran has signaled a willingness to let commercial vessels transit the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz without attack, linking the offer to progress in US‑Iran negotiations. The proposal marks a shift from earlier hardline ideas such as transit...
Urea Outlook Brightens with 250,000t From Indonesia
Incitec Pivot Fertilisers has signed a deal with Indonesia’s PT Pupuk Indonesia to import about 250,000 tonnes of agricultural‑grade urea into Australia for the May‑December cropping window. The shipment represents roughly 20 % of the nation’s remaining fertilizer requirement for the current season, helping offset...
Strait of Hormuz Crisis Should Catalyze African Biofertilizer Production (Commentary)
Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have disrupted synthetic fertilizer shipments, exposing Africa’s reliance on imports that account for up to half of its supply. In response, the Dangote Group is set to triple its output to 9 million metric tons...
Global Seaborne Crude Oil Shipments Down 16% Since Start Of The Iran War
Since the Iran war began, global seaborne crude oil shipments have dropped 16% to 38.4 mbpd, a loss of 7.6 mbpd versus the first nine weeks of 2026. The decline reflects a 9.5% shortfall of the U.S. EIA’s projected 2026 production reaching...
Economist Jim Rickards Says the Biggest Opportunity of the Decade Is Quietly Sitting in Alaska
Macro economist and former CIA adviser Jim Rickards released a free video presentation highlighting a quiet but significant shift in U.S. resource policy. He points to President Trump’s Executive Order 14153, signed in January 2025, which speeds up permitting for...
Pain At The Pump Not So Bad For Americans
U.S. gasoline prices have risen over 40% since the war began, pushing the national average above $4 per gallon. When measured against average hourly earnings, a gallon now costs about 7.7 minutes of work, down from 10.7 minutes in June...
Oil’s 50% Surge Sparks Supercycle Talk but Risks Linger
Oil prices have surged more than 50 % since late February after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran prompted Tehran to close the Strait of Hormuz, tightening global supply. The abrupt supply shock, combined with a fifth of LNG capacity offline,...
Gold Rises as Push for US-Iran Diplomacy Eases Inflation Risk
Gold edged higher, breaking above $4,810 an ounce after a 1.1% dip the day before. The rally was sparked by renewed US‑Iran diplomatic talks that could extend a cease‑fire by two weeks, easing inflation worries tied to the conflict. Despite...
Oil Steady on Signs US, Iran Working Toward Ceasefire Extension
Oil prices steadied on reports that the United States and Iran are weighing a two‑week cease‑fire extension to give diplomats more time for a peace deal. Brent crude traded just under $95 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate hovered near...
U.S. Is Most Resilient to the Energy Shock, Until It Isn’t
The seven‑week war in Iran has disrupted oil and gas flows, hitting Asia and Europe hard while the United States remains comparatively insulated. However, U.S. consumers are already feeling higher gasoline prices—over $1 per gallon—and a 3.3% year‑over‑year CPI increase...
Market Watch: US Gas Futures Inch Higher From 18-Month Low
U.S. natural gas futures edged up 1.1 cents on Wednesday, trading at $2.61 per million British thermal units after hitting an 18‑month trough earlier in the week. Analysts at Gelber & Associates expect a modest reprieve in demand, with a...
Critical Notices, Apr. 15, 2026
Energy Intelligence posted a "Critical Notices" entry for April 15, 2026, which traditionally shares market‑moving natural gas flow data from major North American interstate pipelines. The article is gated behind a login, so specific volumes, line‑pack changes, or operational constraints...
Natural Gas Futures, Apr. 15, 2026
The natural gas market is under pressure from several fronts: Russia’s Portovaya LNG terminal has resumed blacklisted sales, adding Russian cargoes back into global supply; Australia is debating an LNG export tax and curbs to address a domestic fuel‑security crisis;...
Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity, Apr. 15, 2026
With several gigawatts of nuclear capacity offline across Europe and the United States, gas is poised to fill the reliability gap in 2026. Analysts estimate that roughly 30 TWh of additional gas‑generated electricity will be required, pushing overall gas demand up...
Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs, Apr. 15, 2026
Energy Intelligence’s April 15 2026 report shows U.S. natural‑gas spot prices falling to $2.45 per MMBtu while wholesale electricity averaged $45 per MWh. Spark spreads narrowed to $38 per MWh, the lowest level since 2023, as renewable output surged and demand softened...
LNG Shock, Coal Myths, & The Real Winners On The Grid
The March 2026 Hormuz LNG disruption did not trigger a global coal surge; instead, CREA’s real‑time data show fossil generation fell 1% year‑on‑year, with coal flat and gas down 4%. Outside China, coal dropped 3.5% while solar and wind grew...
Soybeans Supported by Expectations for U.S./China Trade Talks
Soybean futures climbed on fund and technical buying as traders grew optimistic about a mid‑May high‑level U.S.–China trade meeting, spurred by a recent Trump social‑media post. The meeting, delayed by the Iran conflict, is seen as a catalyst for easing...
Jet Fuel Supplies Are Sharply Affected by the Near-Closure of the Strait of Hormuz
Jet fuel prices have roughly doubled as ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz plummets, creating a double‑whammy disruption for both crude imports to Asian refineries and finished jet fuel exports from Gulf refineries. Europe has been warned of a...
Asia Faces Strained Supply Lines and Volatile Energy Markets
Asia’s energy markets are under severe strain as Gulf crude shipments face weeks‑long delays and Atlantic imports remain uneconomic. A sustained oil price surge toward $200 per barrel would likely trigger government‑mandated rationing and demand‑reduction measures across the region. The...
Economist Says Many 2027 Fertilizer Decisions Will Be Made Soon
CoBank farm‑supply economist Jacqui Fatka warns that U.S. fertilizer buying decisions for the 2027 season will be locked in this summer. The timing is driven by heightened uncertainty from the ongoing U.S.–Iran conflict and the upcoming USMCA renegotiations that could...
Govt's Wheat Procurement to Drop 69% Due to Delayed Arrivals
India’s wheat procurement for the 2026‑27 marketing year is projected to fall 69% to 1.53 million tonnes, down from 5 million tonnes a year earlier. Unseasonal rains delayed harvests, reducing both the quantity and quality of grain arriving at mandis. The Food...
LPG Supply Restoration May Take 3-4 Years, Says Govt Official: Report
A senior Indian government official warned that restoring disrupted global LPG supplies could take three to four years, amid uncertainty over whether production halts are temporary or permanent. India, which sources about 60% of its LPG imports from West Asia,...
South Korea Has An Oil Problem. Canada Is Helping To Fix It
The Strait of Hormuz blockade has forced South Korea to look beyond the Middle East for crude, and Canada’s Trans‑Mountain Expansion (TMX) now ships oil to the Pacific, letting Korean refiners buy Western Canadian Select at about $10 per barrel...
Bessent Optimistic Gas Prices Fall Back to $3 This Summer
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told a White House briefing on April 15 that he is optimistic gasoline can fall back to $3 per gallon during the June‑September summer driving window. He linked the price outlook to progress in negotiations to...
Trump’s Waiver Of Jones Act Fails To Cool Oil Prices
President Trump issued a 60‑day Jones Act waiver hoping to shave a few cents off U.S. fuel costs, but oil prices remain elevated as global supply disruptions and rising crude costs dominate. Brent fell 4.2% to $95.09 per barrel and...
Iran Can Withstand Two Months without Oil Exports
Iran can sustain its current oil output of roughly 3.5 million barrels per day for about two months if exports are halted, according to consultancy FGE NextantECA. The U.S. blockade that began on April 13 blocks an estimated 2 million bpd from reaching China,...
Petrochemicals Lie at Core of Demand Destruction
The International Energy Agency says petrochemical feedstock demand fell by 1.5 million barrels per day in Q2 2026, driven by war‑related outages in the Middle East and costly run cuts across Asia. Gulf‑region plants face reduced operating rates and damaged export routes,...