Continuing Consequences From the US-Iran Conflict
The US‑Iran conflict has forced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, driving crude oil prices up 83% to over $110 a barrel and pushing U.S. gasoline to $4.79 per gallon. Higher energy costs are feeding persistent inflation, complicating the Federal Reserve’s price‑stability mandate. Treasury yields have risen, with the 10‑year rate climbing from 3.97% to 4.31% in March, benefitting income‑focused investors. Spreads are widening as market participants price in heightened geopolitical risk.
Iran ‘Does Not Forget Its Friends’ as Malaysia Ships Pass Hormuz Amid Selective Access
Iran allowed Malaysia‑linked tankers to transit the Strait of Hormuz after Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s direct appeal to President Masoud Pezeshkian, freeing seven vessels that had been stranded. The decision signals Tehran’s shift toward a selective‑access model, where passage is...
Afreximbank Launches $10bn Crisis Support for Africa, Caribbean
Afreximbank has approved a $10 billion Gulf Crisis Response Programme to cushion African and Caribbean economies from the fallout of the Middle‑East conflict. The fund will supply short‑term foreign‑exchange and liquidity to keep essential imports such as fuel, food and pharmaceuticals...
Singapore Set to Be Hit by Global Energy Crisis as It Unveils Countermeasures
The Middle East conflict is driving an Asia‑wide energy crunch that will hit Singapore’s economy, though the city‑state is better positioned than many neighbours. In parliament, ministers announced a S$200 boost to the cost‑of‑living cash payment and accelerated S$500 food...
'The Thaw Is Real': Indian Delegation Visits China to Talk EVs and More
India’s PHD Chamber led its first business delegation to China in more than five years, meeting firms in Shanghai, Zhejiang and Wuxi. The eight companies, mainly EV‑charging and battery startups, explored joint ventures and technology transfers to bolster India’s renewable‑energy...
Geopolitics and Markets: Could Tensions Trigger Another Black Monday?
Professor Radu Tunaru examines how the Iran‑U.S. confrontation of 1987 sparked the Black Monday crash, highlighting that external geopolitical shocks, not just program trading, can trigger market meltdowns. He draws parallels to today’s Iran conflict, noting its impact on oil,...
West Asia Conflict May Trigger Layered Stress on Margins, Liquidity in India's Financial Sector: EY
EY warns that the West Asia conflict will cascade through India’s financial services sector, creating layered stress on margins, liquidity, and asset quality. Early signs include longer supply chains, higher freight and insurance costs, and tighter working‑capital cycles. Second‑order effects...
For Gulf States, Geography Is Both a Generous and Treacherous Patron
The article argues that the Gulf’s strategic location, which once turned deserts into petro‑states and global aviation hubs, is now a double‑edged sword as Iran’s strikes and the Strait of Hormuz blockage threaten energy exports and critical infrastructure. UAE and...
India Plans Sovereign Guarantees on Loans to Businesses Hit by Iran War, Sources Say
India will issue sovereign credit guarantees for up to $26.7 bn in loans to firms hurt by the Iran‑Israel conflict, targeting especially small and medium‑size enterprises. The program, modeled on pandemic‑era guarantees, will run for four years and cost the treasury...
Singapore Minister Warned Worst Case Not Fully Priced
Singapore’s Foreign Affairs Minister Vivian Balakrishnan warned that the war in Iran could trigger a deeper energy shock than markets currently anticipate. He highlighted that Singapore generates over 95% of its electricity from imported natural gas, with roughly half of...
China Started Preparing for an Energy Crisis Long Before the Iran War
China has been quietly building a buffer against energy disruptions for years, stockpiling oil and accelerating renewable projects. Its aggressive shift toward solar, wind, hydro and electric vehicles has already cut domestic demand for refined oil, diesel and gasoline. Simultaneously,...
Trump's Deadline Looms but Asian Nations Already Have Deals with Iran
President Trump warned Iran of a "one‑night" strike unless the Strait of Hormuz was reopened by Tuesday night. While the deadline loomed, several Asian nations – including the Philippines, India, Pakistan and China – secured bilateral agreements with Tehran for...
Ninety One Eyes Launch of Global EM Infrastructure Debt Strategy Targeting up to $1bn
Ninety One, the manager behind PIDG’s Emerging Africa and Asia Infrastructure Fund, plans to launch a global emerging‑markets infrastructure debt strategy targeting up to $1 billion. The fund will focus on senior secured loans for power, transport and social‑sector projects across...
Corporations Must Re-Learn How to Be Geopolitical Actors
Executives who rose after the Cold War now confront a world where geopolitical instability dominates corporate risk assessments. A McKinsey survey shows 59% of CEOs rank geopolitics as the top threat to growth, eclipsing trade policy, inflation and domestic politics....
JD Vance on Standby in US-Iran Talks
Vice President JD Vance is on standby to enter direct talks with Iran if the backchannel negotiations led by Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner make sufficient progress. President Donald Trump has set a hard deadline for Tehran, threatening...
Southeast Asia Oil Crisis Puts Sovereign Ratings at Risk
Southeast Asian governments are scrambling to subsidize soaring fuel prices after Brent crude topped $90 a barrel, adding a heavy fiscal burden to Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Malaysia. The subsidies, intended to quell public unrest, are swelling budget deficits...
Services Sector Slows as Iran War Fuels Inflation: ISM Survey
The ISM reported that the U.S. services sector slowed in March as the Iran conflict disrupted supply chains and pushed inflation higher. The non‑manufacturing index slipped 2.1 points to 54%, while the employment index fell to its lowest level since...
As Iran’s Civilian Economy Crumbles, Its Military Economy Grows Stronger
In the first month of the U.S.-Israel campaign against Iran, strikes have largely avoided civilian infrastructure, focusing instead on strategic energy assets such as Kharg Island and the South Pars gasfield. The sustained pressure of sanctions and war‑related disruptions is...
ASX Set to Retreat, Wall Street Loses Steam After Trump’s Threat to ‘Take Out’ Iran; Oil Rises
President Donald Trump warned Iran could be "taken out in one night," reigniting geopolitical risk and pushing oil prices higher. U.S. equities posted modest gains—S&P 500 up 0.3%, Dow 0.2%, Nasdaq 0.5%—while Australian futures slipped about 1.1% at the open. Brent...
Lipsky Cited in Bloomberg Article Detailing Why the Iran War May Impact Trump’s Goal of Lowering Interest Rates
A Bloomberg piece cites Atlantic Council analyst Josh Lipsky to explain how the escalating war in Iran could derail former President Donald Trump’s longstanding ambition to push the Federal Reserve toward lower interest rates. The conflict is inflating geopolitical risk...
Nikoladze Joined the Embassy of the Republic of Poland to Launch and Discuss Findings From the Organizations’ New Report
Atlantic Council expert Maia Nikoladze partnered with the Embassy of the Republic of Poland on April 6, 2026 to unveil a joint report that maps Iran’s logistical and financial support for Russia’s drone campaign in Ukraine. The analysis quantifies the flow of...
Washington Post Cites GeoEconomics Research on China’s Cross-Border Digital Currency Platform mBridge
The Washington Post referenced a new GeoEconomics study highlighting China’s cross‑border digital currency platform, mBridge. The research notes that mBridge, built on the digital yuan, now supports real‑time settlements among pilot banks in Hong Kong, Singapore and other Asian hubs....
India Resilient as Global Economy Shifts From ‘Shocks’ to 'Permanent Volatility'
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman warned that the global economy is shifting from episodic shocks to “permanent volatility” driven by trade fragmentation and the West Asia conflict. She highlighted India’s strong fiscal position, with general government debt at about 81% of...
China’s Yuan May Be Going Global Faster than Western Data Suggests, Analysts Say
Analysts argue that China’s yuan is expanding globally faster than traditional metrics reveal, as an increasing volume of cross‑border transactions now flow through the country’s own payment network, CIPS. Because CIPS and bilateral settlement channels bypass SWIFT’s messaging system, they...
RBI Keeps Investment Limit for FPIs in G-Secs Unchanged for FY27
The Reserve Bank of India confirmed that foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) can continue to hold up to 6 percent of India’s outstanding government securities through the general route for fiscal year 2026‑27. The split between the General and Long‑term sub‑categories remains...
Can India Become the World’s Innovation Capital?
India is shedding its image as a low‑cost back‑office and emerging as a leading global hub for invention and product development. Driven by a deep engineering talent pool, accelerated AI adoption, and recent policy reforms, the country is attracting multinational...
AHL Venture Partners Spent a Decade Doing Equity in Africa. Then It Chose Debt.
AHL Venture Partners, a Nairobi‑based impact VC founded in 2007, has pivoted from a mixed equity‑debt strategy to a pure private‑credit focus after a 2020 strategic reset. The firm now backs scaling African businesses with senior secured loans, targeting high‑margin,...
America’s Currency Is the Global South’s Problem
The article argues that although the U.S. dollar’s share of global foreign reserves has been slipping since its 2001 peak, the decline is incremental, ensuring the greenback’s dominance for the foreseeable future. Nations in the Global South cannot simply wait...
Africa Confronts G7 Double Standards as Ruto Is Invited, Ramaphosa Shut Out
The G7 will invite Kenya’s President William Ruto to the June 2026 summit in France while excluding South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa, ending a decade‑long tradition of Pretoria representing the continent. French officials described the guest list as comprising “democracies...
MENA Startup Funding Falls to $48.3 Million in March 2026
MENA startup funding plunged to $48.3 million in March 2026, an 85% month‑on‑month drop and 62% lower than a year earlier. The slowdown reflects heightened geopolitical risk from the US‑Israeli conflict with Iran, prompting investors to pause rather than withdraw capital....
Europe Must Treat Africa Like a Partner —Not a Problem
The European Union is being urged to move from a donor‑centric model to a true partnership with Africa, focusing on industrialisation, streamlined aid, and balanced security cooperation. Proposals include an EU‑Africa Industrialisation Pact to shift investment toward processing and manufacturing...
Raimondo on How European Industry Is Getting Crushed | Odd Lots
Gina Raimondo warned that Chinese subsidies and a surge in cheap imports are hollowing out Europe’s industrial base, especially in Germany’s chemicals and automotive sectors. She stressed that without a coordinated US‑Europe technology alliance, the transatlantic partnership cannot compete with...
India Turns to Iran for Oil and Gas After 7-Year Hiatus, Signaling Limits to U.S. Tilt
India has restarted oil and LPG purchases from Iran after a seven‑year break, following a U.S. waiver that temporarily lifts sanctions on Iranian crude. The Ministry of Petroleum confirmed shipments, including a 44,000‑metric‑tonne LPG cargo, as refiners seek to offset...
ER Group Opens Nairobi Office to Expand East African Investments and Partnerships
ER Group, a Mauritian conglomerate formed in 2025, has opened a regional office in Nairobi to accelerate its East African investment strategy. The Nairobi hub will coordinate deal sourcing, due diligence, and partnership negotiations across Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, and Rwanda....
Japan PM Takaichi Pursuing Dialogue with Iran's Leader
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi announced that her government is preparing to hold talks with Iran’s supreme leader. The statement was made during a budget committee session in the lower house, emphasizing that discussions will be scheduled at an appropriate...
‘Walking on Eggshells’: How Trump Is Managing His Delicate China Truce
The Trump administration has placed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent at the center of a cautious economic détente with China, steering away from the hard‑line posture of earlier hawks. President Trump’s upcoming May visit aims for a trade win rather than...
Iran Tensions, Crude Oil Surge Keep Dalal Street on Edge
Rising crude‑oil prices and heightened Iran‑U.S. tensions pushed Indian equities lower on Monday. The BSE Sensex fell about 120 points (‑0.16%) to 73,199 and the NSE Nifty slipped 13 points (‑0.06%) to 22,700. Brent crude rose to $109.78 per barrel...
Orban on the Brink: Could Hungary’s Election Dent China’s Influence in Europe?
Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party is trailing the newly formed Tisza Party in polls ahead of Hungary’s April 12 parliamentary election. The contest is being framed as a referendum on whether Budapest will deepen its alignment with China and Russia or re‑orient...
Europe Is Stuck With America
European leaders are confronting deep economic and military reliance on the United States after a year of Trump‑era tariffs, threats to withdraw troops, and pressure on energy supplies. The U.S. now accounts for over 20% of Europe’s exports and supplies...
The Iran Shock
Within weeks of the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, Tehran’s near‑shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz halted roughly 20% of global oil and LNG transit, sending crude prices up 55% and gasoline up about $1 per gallon. The disruption exposed the...
Oil Crisis Hitting Asia Foreshadows Tough Times for Europe
The war in Iran has effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz, cutting global oil supplies by about 10 % and pushing Brent crude above $100 per barrel. The disruption also curtails LNG flows, tightening energy inputs for power and fertilizer production....
Philippines Inflation Seen Quickening as Oil and Food Costs Rise
Philippine headline inflation is projected to rise sharply in March, with estimates ranging from 3.5% to 4.3% after February’s 2.4% rate. The surge is driven by higher oil, electricity and food prices, especially rice. Analysts warn the reading could push...
South Korea Eases Chinese Travel Visas but Southeast Asia Rivals, Iran War Cloud Outlook
South Korea announced new multiple‑entry visas for Chinese travelers, granting five‑year visas to repeat visitors and ten‑year visas to residents of 14 major Chinese cities and investors who have put at least $1 million into the Korean economy. The move targets...
BP Leading Effort to Develop Energy Deposits in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan
BP is positioning itself as the lead developer of the Ustyurt Plateau’s newly identified natural‑gas reserves that span western Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. The company signed an exploration agreement with KazMunayGaz on April 2 and is in talks with Uzbekneftegaz and Azerbaijan’s...
BBL Recommends Thai Businesses Mull Expansion to India
Bangkok Bank is urging Thai companies to diversify away from the United States and tap India’s massive market as geopolitical tensions rise. The bank’s president highlighted India’s strategic importance as a consumer base, investment hub, and supply‑chain partner. BBL pledged...
Iran Ramps up Jask Exports, but Still Heavily Reliant on Kharg Island
Iran has increased crude loadings at its Jask terminal, but the port remains a minor supplement to the dominant Kharg Island hub. In March, Jask accounted for only about 4.4% of Iran’s oil exports while Kharg handled roughly 84‑90% of...
Andrew Tilton on China’s Growth Prospects, Economic Trajectory in Wake of Iran War
Goldman Sachs chief Asia‑Pacific economist Andrew Tilton told the South China Morning Post that China’s property slump has passed its worst phase, removing a major drag on growth. He highlighted that GDP is now projected to rebound above 5% this...
Record Run for Co, LLP Floats in FY26 Despite a Bump in March
India logged a record surge in corporate formations in FY 2025‑26, with company registrations up 37% to 247,658 and LLPs rising 40% to 86,476. The growth slowed in March, posting only a 6% increase for companies and 9% for LLPs amid...
BMI Cuts PH ’26 Growth Forecast to 4.7%
BMI Research, a Fitch unit, lowered its 2026 Philippine GDP growth outlook to 4.7% from 5.1%, citing a prolonged Middle East energy shock and subdued government capital spending. The firm expects first‑quarter growth of 3.6%, modestly above the fourth‑quarter 2025...
Iran Claims to Have Hit an MSC Container Ship in the Mideast
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced a drone strike on the MSC Ishyka container vessel, claiming it caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz. AIS data, however, places the ship at a berth in Manama, Bahrain, and shows intermittent signal...