China’s Taiwan Calculus Ahead of the Trump-Xi Summit
Chinese President Xi Jinping met Taiwan’s opposition KMT chair Cheng Li‑wun on April 10, 2026, timing the encounter with the 47th anniversary of the Taiwan Relations Act to shape the agenda of the upcoming Trump‑Xi summit. Beijing will use the summit to argue that U.S. support for Taiwan threatens strategic stability and that cross‑strait peace can be achieved without American involvement. While a grand U.S.–China deal on Taiwan is unlikely, any U.S. rhetorical softening or delay in arms sales would be viewed as a win for Beijing. U.S. domestic constraints—Congressional support for Taiwan, lack of a dedicated envoy, and Trump’s unpredictability—limit the scope of any policy shift.
Behind the Bluster, Donald Trump Desperately Needs a Peace Deal with Iran. Here's a Solution | Rajan Menon
Former President Donald Trump faces mounting pressure to avert a renewed US‑Iran conflict after a failed Islamabad negotiation and a self‑imposed naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Professor Rajan Menon outlines a four‑point framework: recognize Iran’s right to limited...
India Imports LNG From US, Oman, and Nigeria in March as Qatar, UAE Supplies Dry Up
India’s LNG imports fell 20% year‑on‑year to 1.2 million tonnes in March 2026 after Qatar and UAE cargoes stopped amid escalating Middle‑East tensions. The shortfall, equivalent to about 47.4 MSCMD of gas, was partially offset by higher shipments from the United States, Oman and...
Q2 Strategic Income Outlook: Everything Everywhere All at Once
The first quarter of 2026 was marked by a cascade of geopolitical shocks—from Venezuela’s president’s arrest to a U.S.-Israel strike on Iran—while AI breakthroughs drove hyperscaler capital expenditures to an estimated $720 billion. Private‑credit markets showed stress, with default risk projected...
On My Mind: The $ Is Dead, Long Live the $
The article challenges the growing narrative that the U.S. dollar is in rapid decline, arguing that its dominance remains underpinned by deep capital markets, institutional credibility, and the sheer scale of the U.S. economy. Recent Deutsche Bank research linking Middle‑East conflict...
Trafigura Signs $1bn Oil-Backed Financing Deal with Gabon to Boost Liquidity
Global commodities trader Trafigura has signed a $1 billion oil‑backed financing agreement with the Republic of Gabon, providing upfront liquidity in exchange for the country's profit‑oil over seven years. The deal makes Trafigura the exclusive buyer of Gabon's post‑cost crude, with...
Dollar Dominance Is Surviving the Iran War – Just About
The Iran‑Israel war has not eroded the U.S. dollar’s global dominance, as the greenback rose about 2% against a basket of currencies and U.S. asset markets performed relatively well. The 10‑year Treasury yield climbed 35 basis points to 4.3%, a...
World "Must Brace for Tough Times" Says IMF Chief Georgieva
International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that the Middle‑East conflict is already dampening global growth, revising the IMF’s outlook from 3.4% last year to 3.1% by 2026 and flagging a worst‑case drop to 2%. She highlighted soaring energy and...
Global Imbalances Are Back. Who’s to Blame?
Global imbalances are resurfacing, echoing the pre‑2008 “saving‑glut” era when Asian economies amassed massive dollar reserves while the United States ran a large current‑account deficit. Economists now observe that Asia’s trade surpluses remain in the multi‑trillion‑dollar range, keeping the dollar...
The World Waits for a Climbdown
ING’s Carsten Brzeski outlines a base‑case scenario where Iran‑U.S. talks extend 2‑4 weeks, leading to a limited blockade of the Strait of Hormuz before traffic resumes. Oil prices are projected to dip below $90 per barrel by year‑end, easing some pressure...
Middle East Conflict Driving Wealth Flows Back Toward Europe, Says Pictet
The Iran conflict is prompting high‑net‑worth investors to move capital from Gulf hubs toward Europe, especially Switzerland, seeking political stability and diversification. Pictet managing partner Laurent Ramsey told Bloomberg that clients are spreading custody across multiple jurisdictions to reduce concentration...
EBID Sets Ambitious Investment Drive as West Africa Growth Strategy Takes Shape
The ECOWAS Bank for Investment and Development (EBID) unveiled a new five‑year Growth, Resilience and Optimisation strategy at its 24th AGM in Accra, aiming to boost investment across West Africa through 2030. The plan prioritises infrastructure, agriculture, energy and digital...
Bullish Narrative Around India’s Economy at Odds with Struggling Rupee
The Indian rupee has risen about 1.5% since March 27, making it Asia’s top performer, but the rebound masks deeper strains from an Iran‑war‑driven energy shock that is widening the current‑account deficit and stoking inflation. The Reserve Bank of India responded...
IMF, Global Investors See Indonesia as Bright Spot, BI Says
The International Monetary Fund and global investors have singled out Indonesia as a bright spot in the world economy, citing its resilient macro‑economic fundamentals. Bank Indonesia highlighted that the country has kept its fiscal deficit below 3% of GDP through...
China's Economy Grows Faster than Expected Despite Iran War
China’s first‑quarter GDP rose 5% year‑on‑year, outpacing the 4.8% consensus and meeting the upper bound of its newly‑set 4.5‑5% growth target. The rebound was anchored by a manufacturing surge, while property investment stayed depressed. Export growth decelerated sharply to 2.5%...
Japan Remains Most Trusted Power in Southeast Asia Despite Military Build-Up: Survey
A Singapore‑based ISEAS‑Yusof Ishak Institute survey shows 65.6% of Southeast Asian respondents still view Japan as the region’s most trusted power, despite a modest dip from last year. Tokyo is pushing a one‑year timeline to amend its pacifist constitution, formally...
China Trims US Treasury Holdings Amid Rising Debt Supply as Global Ownership Hits Record
China’s central bank modestly reduced its U.S. Treasury holdings in February, continuing a multi‑year trend of diversifying its foreign‑exchange reserves. The cut came even as total foreign ownership of U.S. sovereign debt reached an all‑time high, buoyed by private investors...
China’s G.D.P. Stronger Than Expected, Led by Infrastructure Spending
China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported that GDP expanded 1.3% quarter‑over‑quarter in Q1 2026, implying an annualized growth rate of about 5.3%, slightly above the 4.8% consensus. The modest gain was driven by an 8.9% year‑over‑year jump in infrastructure spending,...
UAE Ministry of Investment Visits China Merchants Capital to Deepen Strategic Investment Cooperation
On April 14, a delegation from the UAE Ministry of Investment met with China Merchants Capital (CMC) to deepen strategic investment cooperation between the two nations. CMC, a leading alternative‑investment platform of China Merchants Group, highlighted its focus on intelligent technology,...
WEBINAR: UAE Projects Market 2026
The upcoming MEED webinar on 28 April 2026 will dissect the UAE’s projects market, reviewing 2025 performance and the value of work awarded year‑to‑date in 2026. Organisers will assess how the Iran conflict is reshaping supply chains, material costs, and war‑risk premiums...
PIF Backs Neom
Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) has officially added Neom to its six strategic ecosystems in the newly approved 2026‑2030 plan, reaffirming support for the $500 bn megaproject after a series of setbacks. The project’s outlook had dimmed following the postponement...
Russia Had to Spend an Extra $130 Billion to Buy Goods While Sanctioned, Analysts From NATO's Frontline Say
Latvia’s Constitution Protection Bureau estimates Russia has spent an extra $130 billion on alternative imports of Western goods between 2022 and 2025, equivalent to an annual $32.5 billion loss. The report adds that Russian export volumes in key commodities such as iron...
Iran War: What Does Tehran Want and Will It Get It?
In a televised discussion, Gideon Rachman and Brookings scholar Suzanne Maloney explore Tehran’s objectives in the ongoing Iran‑U.S. confrontation and the prospects for a negotiated settlement. They argue that Iran’s primary aim is to lift crippling sanctions, secure regional leverage, and...
Hopes Grow for a Breakthrough in US-Iran Talks as Pakistan Mediates
Pakistani officials, led by Army Chief Asim Munir, delivered a fresh U.S. proposal to Tehran on 15 April, hoping for a major breakthrough in nuclear negotiations. The talks focus on narrowing the gap between a five‑year and a twenty‑year enrichment freeze...
ICYMI - Reports that Iran Proposes Partial Hormuz Reopening for Ships via Oman Waters
Iran has signaled a willingness to let commercial vessels transit the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz without attack, linking the offer to progress in US‑Iran negotiations. The proposal marks a shift from earlier hardline ideas such as transit...
Pakistan’s “Managed Failure”: What the U.S.-Iran Stalemate Means for India’s Oil Supplies & Inflation? OPED
Senior US and Iranian officials met in Islamabad for a 21‑hour dialogue that ended without a formal deal, underscoring a deliberate "managed failure" aimed at containing escalation. The venue choice, the absence of Israel, and divergent US‑Iran agendas highlighted the...
China Q1 GDP Beats Forecasts but Iran War Risks Loom
China’s economy expanded 5.0% year‑on‑year in Q1 2026, outpacing the 4.8% consensus and accelerating from 4.5% in the prior quarter. Quarterly growth held steady at 1.3% QoQ, matching forecasts. Policymakers, however, cautioned that the escalating Iran‑driven oil shock adds external...
China Beats Expectations with 5% Growth in First GDP Release Since Iran War
China reported a 5% year‑on‑year GDP expansion in Q1 2026, outpacing analysts’ forecasts. The growth came despite the broader geopolitical shock of the US‑Israel conflict in Iran, suggesting limited spillover to China’s economy. Policymakers see the result as a sign...
Iran Hardliners Rise After War, Raising Risks to Hormuz and Peace Prospects
Iran’s post‑war power shift has entrenched hard‑liners, notably Mojtaba Khamenei, within the political and security hierarchy, curbing prospects for diplomatic compromise. The regime’s crackdown on dissent has intensified, with more arrests and executions. Tehran now leverages control of the Strait...
INTERVIEW: The Steppe Challenger
Freedom Holding Corp, led by founder Timur Turlov, is leveraging its Nasdaq‑listed brokerage and a rapidly expanding super‑app to push beyond Kazakhstan into Europe and the United States. The app now serves 5.2 million users—about a quarter of Kazakhstan’s population—and has...
Iran War Live: Pakistan in Push for New Round of US-Iran Peace Negotiations
The White House expressed optimism about a new round of US‑Iran peace talks, prompting Brent crude to dip to $94.49 a barrel and WTI to $90.59. Pakistani army chief Asim Munir travelled to Tehran to broker a breakthrough, while a...
IMF the First to Improve Russia’s Growth Outlook on Iran War Windfall
The International Monetary Fund has upgraded its 2026 growth projection for Russia to 1.1% annual GDP expansion, up from 0.8%, citing a windfall from higher oil prices triggered by the Iran‑war‑related energy price spike. The IMF expects the 2027 outlook...
Pakistan Keeps Pushing for Peace
Pakistan hosted the latest round of U.S.–Iran talks in Islamabad, marking the first high‑level face‑to‑face negotiations between the rivals in decades. Although the talks did not produce an immediate cease‑fire agreement, the event gave Islamabad a diplomatic win, boosting its...
EMXC: An Ex-U.S. Buy On Ex-China And Semiconductors
The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China ETF (EMXC) has been upgraded to a Buy as investors rotate capital out of China and U.S. friend‑shoring policies favor allied chip hubs. The fund’s portfolio is dominated by Asian semiconductor leaders—TSMC, Samsung...
US Confirms Russia, Iran Waivers Will Not Be Renewed
The United States announced Wednesday that the temporary waivers allowing the purchase of Russian and Iranian oil already at sea will expire after one more month and will not be renewed. The waivers, granted under sanctions‑relief programs, have enabled traders...
Maximum Pressure Returns: U.S. Targets Shadow Fleet Tankers as Iran Oil Waiver Expires
The U.S. Treasury reinstated full "maximum pressure" on Iran by letting the 30‑day general license for stranded Iranian oil expire and sanctioning more than two dozen individuals, companies, and vessels tied to the Shamkhani shadow‑fleet network. The designations target a...
Iran Can Withstand Two Months without Oil Exports
Iran can sustain its current oil output of roughly 3.5 million barrels per day for about two months if exports are halted, according to consultancy FGE NextantECA. The U.S. blockade that began on April 13 blocks an estimated 2 million bpd from reaching China,...
US Sec 301 Probe: India Rejects Allegations, Requests for Terminations of Both Investigations
India has formally rejected the U.S. Trade Representative’s Section 301 investigations into alleged excess structural capacity and forced‑labour practices, demanding a negative determination and immediate termination. The Indian Ministry of Commerce argues the initiation notice lacks specific policy evidence and relies...
How Strategic Investment Is Redefining Economic Statecraft
Funds of funds (FoFs) are emerging as strategic tools for governments to conduct economic statecraft. By pooling capital to invest in venture funds rather than directly in individual firms, FoFs can reinforce innovation ecosystems and steer resources toward critical technologies....
From Salsa to Silence: How America First Is Emptying Cuba’s Beaches and Livelihoods
U.S. sanctions under President Trump’s “America First” policy have sharply restricted fuel and financial flows to Cuba, causing a cascade that has grounded flights and crippled the island’s tourism sector. International arrivals fell more than half in February 2026 compared...
How Big Oil Is Cashing in on Iran War - The Latest
The world’s 100 largest oil and gas companies generated more than $30 million per hour in unearned profit during the first month of the US‑Israeli war on Iran. Crude prices averaged $100 a barrel in March, driving an estimated $23 billion windfall...
Kroenig Interviewed on CNN on the Blockade of the Straight of Hormuz
Atlantic Council Vice President Matthew Kroenig appeared on CNN on April 14 to discuss the United States’ decision to block the Strait of Hormuz. He framed the move as a strategic deterrent aimed at curbing Iran’s hostile behavior in the...
Yellen Says ‘No Alternative’ to Dollar, Urges US-China Cooperation for Sake of the World
Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told the HSBC Global Investment Summit in Hong Kong that a U.S.-China decoupling would erode the benefits of global trade and division of labour. She emphasized the dollar’s unrivaled reserve‑currency advantages, citing deep capital markets...
Bangladesh at the Crossroads: Renewables or Imported Fuel Chaos
Bangladesh, which imports roughly 60% of its energy, is feeling the squeeze of soaring global oil, coal and LNG prices triggered by the Israel‑Iran conflict. The newly elected government faces a looming $4.8 billion jump in annual fuel‑import costs and a...
CFOs Express Growing Alarm over Geopolitical Instability
A recent McKinsey survey of 150 CFOs shows geopolitical instability now tops their risk concerns, with 37% flagging it as a primary growth threat. Trade policy disruptions are also rising, cited by 32% of respondents, while 62% plan to closely...
India’s Trade Gap Narrows as Middle East War Hits Shipments
India’s trade deficit narrowed to $20.67 billion in March, well under the $28.5 billion forecast, as both imports and exports slipped amid Middle East shipping disruptions. Imports fell 6.5% year‑on‑year to $59.59 billion, while exports dropped 7.4% to $38.92 billion. The conflict in the...
Why the US Needs the PROSPER in the Pacific Act
U.S. Rep. Ed Case is urging Congress to pass H.R. 6619, the PROSPER in the Pacific Act, which would restore duty‑free treatment for Pacific Island imports similar to the pre‑2020 Generalized System of Preferences. The legislation targets critical vulnerabilities exposed by rising...
China’s Africa Strategy Is Shifting and Iran Conflict Will Speed It Up
China is pivoting its Africa strategy from resource extraction to investment, centering the effort in Hunan Province’s “Hunan Model.” The model, formalized through the China‑Africa Economic and Trade Deep Cooperation Pilot Zone and a dedicated exhibition, streamlines logistics, free‑trade zones,...
War Will Drain the Gulf’s $6trn Treasure Chest
Six Gulf Cooperation Council sovereign wealth funds now manage over $5 trn in assets, up from $3 trn in 2021, and have deployed more than $430 bn since 2021 across AI, private credit, sports and tech. The ongoing regional war threatens to erode...
South Korea’s Harder Line on Israel Amid Energy Shock
South Korea’s President Lee Jae‑myung publicly criticized Israel, prompting a sharp diplomatic clash and the closure of the Israeli embassy in Seoul. The dispute coincided with Washington’s decision to redeploy Korean air‑defense systems to the Middle East, heightening alliance tensions....