JP Morgan Downgrades India Equities to 'Neutral', Bets on Asia Tech Amid AI-Led Shift
JP Morgan has downgraded Indian equities to a Neutral stance, citing elevated valuations, earnings pressure and scant exposure to AI‑driven sectors. The firm is simultaneously boosting its allocation to technology‑heavy Asian markets, especially Taiwan, as AI momentum accelerates across the region. Macro risks such as persistent inflation and a potential stagflation environment also shape the shift. Despite the downgrade, JP Morgan maintains that India’s long‑term structural growth remains solid.
Hormuz Disruption, $100 Oil Pose Risks to India's Inflation, Rupee: Union Bank
Union Bank’s latest report warns that ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed Brent crude above $100 per barrel, creating a persistent "energy tax" on India’s economy. With the country importing roughly 85% of its crude, higher oil...
CEOs Eye More Investments in East Africa Region
Kenyan chief executives are gearing up for regional expansion, with 54% planning between one and more than four acquisitions in Tanzania, Uganda or Rwanda, according to a PwC survey of 4,454 CEOs. Intra‑EAC trade rose 18.4% to $14.33 billion in 2024,...
India Plans Global Diplomatic Push Across Europe, Africa, BRICS and Quad in May
India is launching an intensive diplomatic drive in May, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi touring Europe for the India‑Nordic summit and bilateral talks in Italy and the Netherlands. The country will host the fourth Africa Summit on May 31 and is...
The FTA Cautionary Tale: What India-Korea Trade Warns Us About New Global Deals
India’s commerce minister Piyush Goyal announced a review of the 2010 Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with South Korea, citing a growing trade imbalance. Bilateral trade has risen from $12 billion in 2009 to $27.4 billion in 2024, but Indian imports from...
Govt to Rebalance Trade with the US
Deputy Prime Minister Suphajee Suthumpun reaffirmed Thailand’s commitment to deepen trade and investment ties with the United States after talks with US Ambassador Sean O’Neill. The government is pushing forward an Agreement on Reciprocal Trade, addressing US Section 301 concerns and...
SE Asia PE Deal Value Falls to $14.3bn As Exits Remain Constrained: Bain
Southeast Asia’s private‑equity market contracted in 2025, with total deal value dropping about 10% year‑on‑year to $14.3 billion across 84 transactions, according to Bain & Company’s 2026 report. Singapore remained the dominant hub, accounting for $7 billion of activity, while Malaysia stood...
Russia’s Economy Minister Admits ‘Reserves Have Largely Been Used up’ While Communist Lawmaker Warns of 1917-Style Revolution as GDP Shrinks
Russia’s economy minister Maxim Reshetnikov admitted that the fiscal reserves the state relied on to buffer wartime pressures have been largely exhausted, signaling a tougher macro environment. The central bank responded with a fifth consecutive half‑point rate cut, lowering the...
Our Ambitions Will Be Dead if We Depend on External Capital
Kenyan President William Ruto warned that Africa forfeits roughly $230 billion each year by exporting crude oil unrefined, a loss that could rise to over $500 billion if domestic refining and downstream processing were developed. He linked this value gap to the...
France Reaffirms Efforts To Reopen Strait Of Hormuz
French President Emmanuel Macron announced a push to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz within days and weeks, emphasizing freedom of navigation under international law. He warned that panic over geopolitical uncertainty could itself trigger shortages. TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne...
India Mulls Options On Iran Port Stake Before Sanctions Kick In
India is weighing options for its $120 million stake in Iran’s Chabahar port as the U.S. sanctions waiver expires on April 26. Officials are considering a temporary transfer of the stake to an Iranian entity while keeping the investment alive, pending talks...
UAE GDP Projection Corrects on Conflict
The May 2026 MEED report revises the UAE’s GDP forecast downward as regional conflict adds pressure, yet the projects sector continues to post year‑to‑date momentum. The economy is absorbing shocks across multiple fronts, with banks staying stable, ADNOC expanding upstream and...
Investors Who Think It’s Time to Move on From the Iran War Should Look at These Numbers
Wall Street is betting that the Iran‑U.S. conflict may be winding down, propelling the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to fresh highs while the Dow lags 1.9% behind its peak. Despite a 45% surge in Brent and a 41% rise in WTI...
Nigeria–South Africa Partnership Critical to Africa’s Integration Agenda
Stakeholders at the second Economic Diplomacy Roundtable, co‑hosted by the South African High Commission and MTN, highlighted the strategic need to deepen Nigeria‑South Africa ties as a catalyst for continental integration. MTN showcased its massive footprint—307 million subscribers and over 175,000 km...
Russia’s Economic, Civil And Political Challenges During The Ukraine War
Russian officials warned that the war‑driven economy is sliding toward recession, with the World Bank forecasting just 1% GDP growth in 2026. Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina highlighted soaring production costs, persistent inflation, and severe labor shortages that now affect...
US Envoys Travel to Pakistan for Peace Talks; Iran Says Direct Negotiations Not Planned
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi arrived in Islamabad to convey Tehran’s position on restarting US‑Iran peace talks, while the United States dispatched special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Pakistan. Iran’s foreign ministry stressed there will be no direct...
India Can Be a Non-AI Hedge as Global Capital Seeks Diversification Says Mirae Asset's Swarup Mohanty
Mirae Asset’s CEO Swarup Mohanty says India can serve as a “non‑AI hedge” for global portfolios once AI‑centric capital peaks. He notes that Indian IT firms, traditionally cash‑flow engines, are under pressure as investors chase pure‑play AI stocks, but their...
Gulf Oil Output Can Rebound in Months After Hormuz Reopens: Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs research says Gulf crude output could rebound within months after the Strait of Hormuz reopens, though full pre‑war levels may take longer. The conflict cut Gulf production by 14.5 mbd, a 57 % drop. Recovery will depend on tanker availability,...
US Imposes Sanctions on Chinese ‘Teapot’ Refinery for Buying Iranian Oil
The U.S. Treasury sanctioned Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian) Refinery, a Chinese "teapot" plant, for buying billions of dollars worth of Iranian oil. The move also targeted roughly 40 vessels and shipping firms linked to Iran’s shadow fleet. China, which accounts for...
Xi Calls Laos Key Priority in China’s Neighborhood Diplomacy
Chinese President Xi Jinping highlighted Laos as a top priority in Beijing’s neighborhood diplomacy, marking the 65th anniversary of diplomatic ties. He emphasized a strategic, long‑term partnership rooted in shared socialist values and mutual development goals. The statement signals likely...
Separation Between Economics & Strategy that Was Taken for Granted Has Collapsed in 21stCentury
The Geoeconomic Monograph Series (G‑SAGE) webinar highlighted how economics and strategy are now inseparable in the 21st century, as multilateral trade rules fray and unilateral tariffs rise. Speakers examined Africa’s AfCFTA, South Asia’s BBIN power grid, and Taiwan’s semiconductor dominance as...
Iran’s New Ocean Imperium
The article links the escalating Iran‑U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz to a centuries‑old debate over “freedom of the seas.” It argues that the legal doctrine, famously codified by Hugo Grotius in *Mare Liberum*, was originally crafted to justify Dutch...
Why Wealthy Gulf Families Are Suddenly Buying Turkish Citizenship at $400K
In early 2026 Gulf real‑estate volumes plunged 36%, shedding roughly $6 billion as geopolitical tensions spooked wealthy families. The downturn redirected capital toward Turkey’s citizenship‑by‑investment program, which now requires a $400,000 property purchase held for three years. Turkey processes applications in...
EU Breaks Deadlock on Russian Sanctions but Defers Maritime Services Ban
The European Council finally broke a weeks‑long deadlock and approved its 20th sanction package on Russia, coupling it with a €90 billion ($105.5 billion) loan to Ukraine. The measures add 46 vessels to the sanctions list, bringing the total to 632, and...
Airlines Face Headwinds as Iran War Leads to Rising Fuel Costs
The U.S. and Israel war against Iran has choked the Strait of Hormuz, sending jet‑fuel prices soaring worldwide. In Europe, prices have roughly doubled, prompting Lufthansa to cancel 20,000 flights through the fall, while KLM and Scandinavian carriers trim schedules....
Forex Reserves Rise to $703 Billion; Rupee Slips 14 Paise
India's foreign exchange reserves jumped $2.3 billion to $703 billion in the week ending April 17, driven by higher foreign‑currency assets and a revaluation of dollar holdings. The rupee slipped 14 paise, closing at 94.25 per dollar, as foreign investors and private oil firms...
Europeans Must Recognize US, China and Russia Are ‘Dead Against’ Us, Says Macron
French President Emmanuel Macron warned that the United States, China and Russia are now "dead against" Europe, urging EU members to defend their own interests and act with greater self‑confidence. He added that the strain in transatlantic relations will likely...
US Slaps 123% Anti-Dumping Duty on Indian Solar Imports
The U.S. Department of Commerce announced a preliminary anti‑dumping duty of 123.04% on solar cells and modules imported from India. The duty, added to existing countervailing tariffs of over 125%, pushes the total tariff burden above 200%, effectively sidelining Indian...
Struggling to Decode Fog of War
The Strait of Hormuz crisis entered a new, volatile phase as Iran's IRGC seized two European tankers, pushing Brent crude above $106 per barrel. The IMF trimmed its global growth forecast to 3.1% and lifted inflation expectations to 4.4%, underscoring...
Witkoff and Kushner Heade to Pakistan Saturday, JD Vance on Standby
U.S. envoys Stephen Witkoff and Jared Kushner are heading to Pakistan for a face‑to‑face meeting aimed at breaking the current diplomatic deadlock with Iran. The White House says the trip, with Senator JD Vance on standby in Washington, hopes to...
Editor's Choice: Energy Crisis Drives India Toward EVs as Asia's Auto Map Shifts
The Iran‑Russia conflict has tightened oil supplies to Asia, prompting Indian consumers to seek cheaper mobility alternatives. In March 2026, Indian electric‑vehicle (EV) registrations surged 82% year‑on‑year to 24,148 units, lifting the fiscal‑year total to 233,246 units. Local manufacturers Tata...
How a Swap Line for Persian Gulf Allies Would Break with the Past
The Federal Reserve is considering extending dollar swap lines to Persian Gulf allies such as the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Bahrain, a departure from its traditional use as a crisis‑management tool for G7 and select emerging markets. Treasury Secretary...
Germany’s Merz Says No ‘Immediate’ Ukraine EU Membership, Floats Kyiv Joining Meetings
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz told an EU summit that Ukraine cannot join the bloc immediately, but could attend European Council meetings without voting rights. The statement comes as Hungary’s nationalist opposition eases after Viktor Orbán’s electoral defeat, reviving hopes for faster progress....
The Fallout: How the Iran War Is Wreaking Havoc in Africa
The IMF’s April Regional Economic Outlook warns that the Iran war will shave 0.3 percentage points off Sub‑Saharan Africa’s growth, lowering the 2026 forecast to 4.3% and pushing median inflation to about 5%. Currency depreciation, shrinking foreign aid and tighter...
Why Are the Saudis Sitting Out the War With Iran?
Saudi Arabia is watching the U.S.-Israel war with Iran from the sidelines while its Vision 2030 megaprojects face budget cuts and timeline extensions. The kingdom’s Public Investment Fund is pivoting toward renewables, advanced manufacturing, logistics and tourism, and Riyadh continues to...
Why Investment in Caspian Transit Routes Is Crucial for Energy Security
Investment in Caspian transit routes is accelerating as the Middle Corridor emerges as a strategic alternative to war‑disrupted traditional pipelines. Stakeholders at the Baku forum highlighted new assessments of the CPC, BTC and Baku‑Supsa pipelines, alongside plans for a Turkmen‑Afghanistan‑Pakistan...
Rules for the Rest of Us
The article argues that the Global South’s alternative to existing international rules is not unfettered freedom but a coordinated exercise of collective power. It highlights how Chile, under former President Gabriel Boric, leveraged regional alliances and shared frameworks to amplify its...
China to Tighten Rules on US Tech Investment
Chinese regulators, led by the National Development and Reform Commission, are set to require government approval for any U.S. investment in sensitive technology firms, including AI startups. Private tech companies have been instructed to reject U.S.-linked capital in funding rounds...
Chhangani’s CIPS Data and Lipsky Cited in NY Times Article
The New York Times cited Atlantic Council experts Alisha Chhangani and Josh Lipsky in a piece on China’s Cross‑Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) and its growing role in Iran’s trade. Chhangani’s data show CIPS transaction volumes with Iran surged to...
Donovan and Nikoladze Cited in FXStreet Article Stating that Central Banks Building up Gold Reserves to Shield From Sanctions or...
In a recent FXStreet analysis, Atlantic Council experts Kimberly Donovan and Maia Nikoladze highlighted a surge in central‑bank gold purchases. They argue that banks are stockpiling the metal to hedge against potential sanctions and a looming financial crisis. The commentary...
Chhangani’s CIPS Data and Lipsky Cited in Article by The Economist Discussing the Positive Impacts of the America-Iran War on...
The Economist cited research from Chhangani and Lipsky showing that the ongoing America‑Iran conflict has boosted the adoption of China’s Cross‑Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS). Data indicate a roughly 40% jump in CIPS transaction volume as Iranian firms seek alternatives...
Atlantic Council Front Page Event with World Bank Group President Ajay Banga Featured in Reuters Article on Funds for Countries...
World Bank President Ajay Banga announced at an Atlantic Council Front Page event that the institution could mobilize up to $100 billion to support countries devastated by war. The proposed financing package would combine concessional loans, grants, and guarantees to spur...
Beyond the Headlines: Where Federated Hermes Sees Real Opportunity in the Asia Ex-Japan Region
Federated Hermes highlights a compelling investment case across the Asia ex‑Japan region, focusing on deep‑value opportunities in China, a multi‑year re‑rating in South Korea, and contrarian upside in Thailand. The firm points to record‑low price‑to‑earnings multiples in China, single‑digit P/E...
Helping Iran, China Is a Party in the War
China is covertly bolstering Iran’s war capabilities despite publicly claiming neutrality. Recent investigations reveal Beijing supplied a commercial reconnaissance satellite, air‑defense missiles, and large quantities of sodium perchlorate for solid‑fuel rockets. Additional reports cite Chinese AI firms providing geospatial data...
Next Africa: Could Dangote's IPO Transform Investing? (Podcast)
Aliko Dangote's conglomerate is preparing a roughly $10 billion initial public offering, the biggest ever on an African exchange. The Bloomberg podcast examines how the listing could reshape capital flows into the continent and set a new valuation benchmark for local...
Mercosur: MEPs Letter Warns of Concentration Risk Due to Quota Allocation System
The European Parliament is circulating a letter warning that the EU‑Mercosur trade deal’s quota allocation system could concentrate beef and poultry imports in the hands of a few large South American agribusinesses, especially Brazil’s JBS. The agreement, set to enter...
Merryn Talks Money: Markets in a Permanent Mini-Crisis (Podcast)
In the latest "Merryn Talks Money" episode, hosts Merryn Somerset Webb and John Stepek argue that markets are stuck in a perpetual state of "mini‑crises" driven by relentless geopolitical turbulence. They note that corporate earnings are sending mixed signals, while the UK...
China Opens Government Bond Futures to Select Foreign Investors in Reform Push
China will permit qualified foreign institutional investors (QFII) to trade government bond futures for hedging, starting Friday. The move expands foreign access to yuan‑denominated derivatives, aiming to broaden investment scope and improve rate‑risk management. China’s bond market exceeds 200 trillion yuan...
The Strait of Hormuz Energy Crisis Shows the EU’s Carbon Pricing Is the Right Approach
Recent closure of the Strait of Hormuz has driven up global energy prices, forcing Europe to spend an additional €24 billion (about $26 billion) on fossil fuel imports. In response, the European Commission unveiled the AccelerateEU package, a set of non‑binding short‑term...
Iran War, U.S. Court’s Tariff Ruling Delays India Trade Deal — but a Bigger Risk Lies Ahead
The India‑U.S. trade agreement remains unsigned, with negotiations stalled by the Iran war and a recent U.S. court ruling that upheld a 10% baseline tariff for all partners. India faces a June deadline for the Section 301 investigation, after which higher...