EU Faces ‘China Shock’ as EV Imports Drive Beijing’s Record Surplus with Bloc
The EU recorded a record $83 bn trade surplus with China in Q1 2026, driven by a surge in Chinese electric‑vehicle imports that doubled to $20.6 bn. Chinese EVs now account for about one‑third of China’s vehicle exports and represent 42% of sales in Europe, the UK, Norway and Switzerland. In response, Brussels has imposed up to 35% tariffs and proposed a “Made in Europe” industrial strategy, but the bloc remains heavily dependent on Chinese supplies such as permanent magnets (93% of EU demand). German leaders warn the widening trade gap is unsustainable, prompting calls for “derisking” and greater self‑sufficiency.
China Needs Higher Minimum Wages
Chinese policymakers argue that the nation’s entrenched overtime culture is unsustainable as workers log 2,500‑3,000 hours annually—roughly 60 hours per week. The government links this fatigue to weak domestic consumption, low fertility, and uneven growth, and is now urging higher...
Central Asians in Russia-Ukraine War: From Forced Recruitment to Economic Recruitment
The Ukrainian "I want to live" initiative identified 12,666 Central Asian citizens fighting for Russia since February 2022, more than double the 5,740 reported a year earlier. Uzbeks constitute the largest national group, while Tajik, Kyrgyz and Turkmen numbers also rose....
Scaling up Industrialization in Africa
The Iran war underscored Africa’s vulnerability to fuel imports, spotlighting Aliko Dangote’s refinery as a proof‑of‑concept for local processing. A new Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) report shows institutional capital on the continent has risen to over $2 trillion, largely from soaring...
‘Made in Europe’ Act: China Threatens Countermeasures Against EU Industrial Law
The European Union unveiled the draft Industrial Accelerator Act (IAA) to boost domestic production, green technology adoption, and job creation, especially in strategic sectors like batteries and electric vehicles. The legislation would tie public procurement and subsidies to CO₂ and...
China’s Economy Starts to Show Cracks From Iran War
Rising oil and natural‑gas prices from the Iran war are beginning to strain China’s manufacturing‑driven economy. Car sales fell in March and dropped further in April, while restaurants and hotels saw fewer patrons. In southern China, toy‑factory workers protested after...
Amundi to Manage New €3 Billion EU-Backed Green Bond Blended Finance Fund
Amundi has been selected to manage the EU‑backed Global Green Bond Initiative (GGBI) Fund, a blended‑finance vehicle targeting up to €3 billion ($3.24 billion). The fund will combine roughly €1 billion ($1.08 billion) of equity from multilateral development banks with a goal of crowding...
The U.S. Started the War. The Rest of the World Is Feeling the Effects.
The United States’ initiation of an eight‑week war in Iran has rippled through the global economy, shutting textile mills in India and Bangladesh, grounding flights in Ireland, Poland and Germany, and prompting energy rationing in Vietnam, South Korea and Thailand....
The Hidden Chokepoints Threatening the Global Economy
The recent closure of the Strait of Hormuz underscores how tightly concentrated supply routes can destabilize the global economy. Repeated disruptions—from COVID‑19 PPE shortages to current fertilizer and sulfur scarcities—reveal that policymakers still lack a clear map of critical chokepoints....
The Hormuz Hit to Helium
The Iran‑UAE conflict has disrupted helium supplies, as Qatar halted production at its Ras Laffan LNG plant and the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. Spot helium prices have doubled after a 14% cut in Qatari exports, tightening a market already dependent on...
China’s Sovereign Debt to Debut in SE Asia’s Largest Economy
China and Indonesia have signed a reciprocal sovereign bond agreement allowing China to issue yuan‑denominated bonds in Indonesia’s domestic market and Indonesia to sell rupiah‑denominated bonds in China. The deal marks the first institutionalized opening between two of Asia’s largest...
Govt Aims for 5.7 Percent GDP Growth in Second Quarter
Indonesia’s government announced a target of 5.7% GDP growth for the second quarter, aiming to exceed the usual 5% pace despite external headwinds from the Middle East conflict. Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa said the administration will "push" the economy...
Ghana’s Fuel Payment Strategy Works for Now: How to Fix Longer Term Problems
In 2023 Ghana launched a gold‑for‑oil payment scheme, using domestically mined gold instead of scarce US dollars to settle petroleum imports. The arrangement eased pressure on the cedi, helped curb fuel‑price inflation to roughly 3‑4% by early 2026, and lowered...
AI Boom Drowns Out War Fears to Fuel Asia’s Great Market Divide
Asian equity markets are splitting along a north‑south divide as AI‑driven chipmakers lift South Korea, Taiwan and Japan while higher oil prices depress India, Indonesia and the Philippines. The AI boom has propelled the Kospi and Taiex to record highs,...
Zero Tariffs, Same Structure: Africa Must Change How It Trades with China
In 2025 Africa‑China trade reached a record $348 bn, with Chinese exports to the continent at $225 bn and African exports to China at $123 bn. From 1 May 2026 China will apply zero tariffs on imports from all 53 African nations, a rare opening...
What Has Made Poland so Successful?
Poland has become Europe’s top growth story, expanding its economy seventeen‑fold from $66 billion in 1990 to about $1.1 trillion in 2026. The country now outsizes 14 Eastern European economies combined and rivals Japan on a per‑capita basis. Key drivers include deep...
Mapping the Fallout: Which Indian Sectors Face Risks From the West Asia War?
The West Asia war has ignited the world’s biggest energy crisis, pushing crude oil to about $100 a barrel and disrupting the Strait of Hormuz. In India, the shock has slashed fertilizer output by 24.6% YoY and driven up airline...
Partner Insight: Rising Populism: What Shifting Politics Could Mean for Markets and Portfolios
Populism is now a persistent force in global politics, shaping fiscal and monetary policies that reverberate through bond and equity markets. Populist governments tend to lower short‑term rates while pushing long‑term yields higher, creating a steepening yield curve that reflects...
Bangladesh Risks New Inflation Surge by Printing Money
Bangladesh’s central bank injected roughly US$1.65 billion of high‑powered money in February, pushing reserve‑money growth to 13.35% year‑on‑year—more than double the pace a year earlier. The expansion comes as the new government seeks to fund welfare programmes amid a weak fiscal...
ET Awards: Sitharaman Flags AI Threat and Global Risks, Says Reforms on the Way to Support India Inc Growth
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced a new reform package aimed at reducing regulatory compliance burdens for Indian businesses, citing the need to cushion the impact of the West Asia conflict and rising commodity prices. She highlighted India’s strong domestic consumption as a...
Analysis-Under Cover of Trade Truce with Trump, China Expands Economic Pressure Toolkit
In October 2025 President Donald Trump and Xi Jinping signed a trade truce that promised to lift Chinese rare‑earth export controls and end retaliation against U.S. firms. Since then Beijing has quietly built a broader economic‑pressure toolkit, enacting laws that...
Iran’s FM Said Had Discussion with Oman on Ways to Ensure Safe Transit in Hormuz Strait
Iran’s foreign minister met with his Omani counterpart to discuss mechanisms for securing safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Both officials emphasized the need for coordinated measures that protect commercial vessels while reducing the risk of accidental incidents. The...
Daniel Gros on What China Can Learn From the Euro as It Works Towards a Global Yuan
Daniel Gros, director at Bocconi’s Institute for European Policymaking, argues that the euro’s modest international role highlights the United States dollar’s unrivaled advantage: a deep, open financial market and a powerful lock‑in effect. He notes that the yuan’s push for...
Record-Setting Momentum Rally Is Drawing Doubters
April’s risk‑asset rally has surged to near‑record levels, with the S&P 500 climbing almost 10% since the end of March—its strongest monthly gain since late 2020. The rally persisted despite stalled US‑Iran peace talks, lingering inflation signals, and a central‑bank succession drama...
India Must Identify Key Chokepoints, Mitigate Both Supply & Price Risks: EAC-PM Chairman S Mahendra Dev
India’s Economic Advisory Council chair S Mahendra Dev warned that the West Asia war exposes critical supply‑chain vulnerabilities across energy, food, fertilizers, metals and minerals. He urged the government to map these chokepoints, expand strategic petroleum reserves and commodity stockpiles, and diversify...
Resilience Is a Critical Link in West Africa’s Digital Economy
At the 2026 International Submarine Cable Resilience Summit, leaders highlighted that resilience has become an economic imperative for West Africa’s $800 billion‑plus economy. A March 2024 multi‑cable outage slashed internet traffic by over 50%, exposing the fragility of a digital sector...
Churn in Horn of Africa Political Alliances
The Horn of Africa’s political turbulence is reshaping the Bab el‑Mandeb corridor, now handling over half of Saudi oil after the Strait of Hormuz blockage. The United Arab Emirates’ pullout has shuttered several Red Sea bases, eroding maritime surveillance. Meanwhile, Washington...
Chinese EV Giant Sends a Bold Message Straight to the US
At the Beijing Auto Show BYD, now the world’s largest EV maker, declared it can thrive without the U.S. market, underscoring a rapid overseas expansion and new flash‑charging battery technology. European sales surged 270% in 2025 and the firm sold...
Iran’s Araghchi Lands in Pakistan; Trump Says Tehran Must Call First
Iran reopened Imam Khomeini International Airport, launching flights to Istanbul and Muscat, signaling a tentative return to normalcy after weeks of conflict. Meanwhile, U.S. envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are heading to Pakistan for high‑stakes talks aimed at ending...
India Likely to Close FY26 with Gross FDI of More than $90 Billion, Says CEA Nageswaran
India’s Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran projects gross foreign direct investment (FDI) to top $90 billion in FY 2025‑26, roughly 2% of the country’s GDP. The April‑February period already recorded $88.3 billion in gross inflows, an 18.1% jump year‑over‑year, and net FDI rose to...
Investors Dive Back Into Frontier Markets After April Rally
Frontier market assets rebounded strongly in April, with the MSCI Frontier Markets Index climbing about 10% in dollar terms, its best monthly gain since 2009. Bond issuances saw heightened demand, highlighted by Congo’s debut sale attracting bids four times its...
China Warns EU to Remove Firms and Citizens From Russian Sanctions List
China’s Ministry of Commerce demanded the EU drop 27 Chinese firms and individuals from its latest sanctions list tied to Russia’s war in Ukraine, warning that the bloc would bear the consequences of non‑compliance. The EU justified the measures, accusing...
Beijing Lashes Out at EU After Chinese Firms Included in Latest Russia Sanctions
The European Union approved its 20th sanctions package against Russia, extending restrictions to Chinese companies accused of facilitating Moscow's war economy. Beijing’s commerce ministry issued a strongly worded protest, labeling the move “brazen” and warning the EU of consequences if...
Economy Could Suffer for Eight Months After Iran War Ends, Minister Says
Chief Secretary Darren Jones warned that the fallout from the Iran‑Israel‑US conflict will keep UK energy, food and airline prices elevated for at least eight months after the Strait of Hormuz reopens. The blockage of this key shipping lane has...
New Zealand to Sign FTA with India Tomorrow; Luxon Calls It ‘Once-in-a-Generation Deal’
New Zealand will sign a free‑trade agreement with India on Monday, a deal Prime Minister Christopher Luxon called “once‑in‑a‑generation.” The pact opens New Zealand exporters to India’s 1.4 billion‑person market, the world’s third‑largest economy. Luxon highlighted gains for key sectors such as kiwifruit,...
Florida’s Influx of Rich Residents Is Killing the Middle Class and Housing Market
Florida attracted $20.65 billion in adjusted gross income from wealthy out‑of‑state migrants in 2023, the highest inflow of any state. The influx drove median single‑family home prices to about $420,000, pushing the price‑to‑income ratio above 5.4 and inflating the share of...
Kenyan Banks Project Surge in Bad Loans on Impact of Geopolitical Tensions
Kenyan banks warn that non‑performing loans (NPLs) could climb above 16% of gross loans this year as fuel price spikes and Middle‑East tensions strain the economy. The Kenya Bankers Association notes NPLs have already edged up to 15.6% in March...
Sovereign Wealth Funds Are Africa’s Most Quiet Revolution
At the 39th African Union summit, leaders pledged to build a New African Financial Architecture that would channel mineral wealth into sovereign wealth funds. Africa controls roughly 30% of the world’s known critical mineral reserves, yet extraction profits, processing, and...
India Following Diversified Strategy to Boost Exports to China, Cut Import Dependence: Official
India is pursuing a diversified trade strategy that aims to boost its exports to China while reducing reliance on Chinese imports. Exports rose 37% to $19.5 bn in FY2025‑26, yet imports jumped 16% to $131.6 bn, expanding the trade deficit to $112.6 bn....
Geocultural Forces Reshaping China’s Economic Map
China’s latest provincial GDP per‑capita rankings show Jiangsu and Zhejiang leapfrogging Guangdong, reshaping the nation’s economic map. Guangdong’s share of top‑25 cities by GDP per capita has dropped from nine in 2005 to three today, while Jiangsu and Zhejiang have...
JP Morgan Downgrades India Equities to 'Neutral', Bets on Asia Tech Amid AI-Led Shift
JP Morgan has downgraded Indian equities to a Neutral stance, citing elevated valuations, earnings pressure and scant exposure to AI‑driven sectors. The firm is simultaneously boosting its allocation to technology‑heavy Asian markets, especially Taiwan, as AI momentum accelerates across the region....
Hormuz Disruption, $100 Oil Pose Risks to India's Inflation, Rupee: Union Bank
Union Bank’s latest report warns that ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed Brent crude above $100 per barrel, creating a persistent "energy tax" on India’s economy. With the country importing roughly 85% of its crude, higher oil...
CEOs Eye More Investments in East Africa Region
Kenyan chief executives are gearing up for regional expansion, with 54% planning between one and more than four acquisitions in Tanzania, Uganda or Rwanda, according to a PwC survey of 4,454 CEOs. Intra‑EAC trade rose 18.4% to $14.33 billion in 2024,...
India Plans Global Diplomatic Push Across Europe, Africa, BRICS and Quad in May
India is launching an intensive diplomatic drive in May, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi touring Europe for the India‑Nordic summit and bilateral talks in Italy and the Netherlands. The country will host the fourth Africa Summit on May 31 and is...
The FTA Cautionary Tale: What India-Korea Trade Warns Us About New Global Deals
India’s commerce minister Piyush Goyal announced a review of the 2010 Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with South Korea, citing a growing trade imbalance. Bilateral trade has risen from $12 billion in 2009 to $27.4 billion in 2024, but Indian imports from...
Govt to Rebalance Trade with the US
Deputy Prime Minister Suphajee Suthumpun reaffirmed Thailand’s commitment to deepen trade and investment ties with the United States after talks with US Ambassador Sean O’Neill. The government is pushing forward an Agreement on Reciprocal Trade, addressing US Section 301 concerns and...
SE Asia PE Deal Value Falls to $14.3bn As Exits Remain Constrained: Bain
Southeast Asia’s private‑equity market contracted in 2025, with total deal value dropping about 10% year‑on‑year to $14.3 billion across 84 transactions, according to Bain & Company’s 2026 report. Singapore remained the dominant hub, accounting for $7 billion of activity, while Malaysia stood...
Russia’s Economy Minister Admits ‘Reserves Have Largely Been Used up’ While Communist Lawmaker Warns of 1917-Style Revolution as GDP Shrinks
Russia’s economy minister Maxim Reshetnikov admitted that the fiscal reserves the state relied on to buffer wartime pressures have been largely exhausted, signaling a tougher macro environment. The central bank responded with a fifth consecutive half‑point rate cut, lowering the...
Our Ambitions Will Be Dead if We Depend on External Capital
Kenyan President William Ruto warned that Africa forfeits roughly $230 billion each year by exporting crude oil unrefined, a loss that could rise to over $500 billion if domestic refining and downstream processing were developed. He linked this value gap to the...
France Reaffirms Efforts To Reopen Strait Of Hormuz
French President Emmanuel Macron announced a push to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz within days and weeks, emphasizing freedom of navigation under international law. He warned that panic over geopolitical uncertainty could itself trigger shortages. TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne...