Emerging Markets Blogs and Articles
Emerging Markets Blogs and Articles
Emerging Markets Pulse
EMAIL DIGESTS
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Every morning
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EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Sunil Mani’s new book India’s High‑Tech Leap reviews the rise of six high‑tech sectors—pharmaceuticals, software services, COVID‑19 vaccines, wind turbines, solar photovoltaics and electric vehicles—under India’s Make‑in‑India and Atmanirbhar Bharat initiatives. He credits government intervention and public‑private collaboration for early successes but flags four systemic flaws: fragmented administration, weak local‑content enforcement, poorly‑targeted incentives, and geopolitical exposure. The author argues that India must adopt a strategic, outcome‑oriented industrial policy modeled on Northeast Asian experiences, but tailored to democratic realities. The book ends with a call for sector‑specific strategies to avoid a middle‑income trap.
German politician Merz blamed low productivity for China’s competitive edge, arguing Germans must work harder. The article counters that China’s advantage stems from systemic factors—an undervalued yuan, extensive subsidies and strategic industrial policy—that create a 40‑60% price gap despite higher...
The Capital Flows Research team notes that geopolitical instability and AI safety concerns are increasingly overlapping, creating a compounded risk environment. The analyst introduced a new AI-driven mapping tool and released a suite of TradingView indicators to monitor these dynamics....
On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel conducted coordinated airstrikes against Iranian targets, prompting a massive retaliatory offensive by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The IRGC launched the largest attack in its history, striking more than 20...
Latin America’s MSCI index surged 20% in the first two months of the year, lifting the region’s weight in the global benchmark from 5% to roughly 15%, a level not seen since the early 2000s. The original “Big 3” markets—Argentina, Brazil...
Over the weekend, coordinated US and Israeli strikes hit Iran, prompting missile and drone retaliation that shut Dubai’s airport and threatened oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict pushed Brent crude toward $73 a barrel and heightened geopolitical...
Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes inside Iran, coupled with reports of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death, have triggered a sharp geopolitical escalation. Diplomacy appears to have given way to force, raising the prospect of retaliatory attacks and broader regional spillover....
The newsletter highlights a resurgence of U.S. geopolitical pressure on China, from Trump’s revived Monroe Doctrine in Latin America to a new 15% global tariff. Demographic data show major population gains in Texas and Florida while New York and California...
Brent crude has nudged into the low $70s as U.S.-Iran tensions rise, underscoring the market’s sensitivity to the Persian Gulf. About 20% of global oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow chokepoint that could be disrupted by conflict....
The 10‑year versus 3‑month Treasury spread has been compressing sharply, as high‑frequency data show a pronounced narrowing. Analysts note that the traditional term premium calculation omits heightened default risk, which is evident in rising U.S. Treasury CDS spreads. When inflation...
In a recent ClubGPF live discussion, Geopolitical Futures chairman George Friedman revisited his book *The Storm Before the Calm* to argue that America is moving through an 80‑year institutional cycle. He compared today’s political polarization and economic anxiety to three...
Chinese firm MizarVision posted high‑resolution satellite images showing U.S. F‑22 fighters at an Israeli base, sparking speculation that the pictures came from Chinese satellites. Analysts from the South China Sea Probing Initiative, led by Hu Bo, used satellite ephemeris and resolution...
The 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS) reorients U.S. competition with China from a primarily military focus to an economic‑centric paradigm, emphasizing political warfare, gray‑zone activities, and supply‑chain resilience. It calls for leveraging alliances, reindustrialization, and civilian tools such as the...
The Economist’s language analysis shows State of the Union speeches have increasingly dwelled on past achievements, a trend echoed by President Trump’s nostalgic rhetoric. Investors are left questioning the outlook for a country that spends more time reminiscing than forecasting....
Investigative reporting reveals that Chinese firms are profiting from the illicit extraction of Venezuela’s “black sands” – coltan, niobium and tin – by partnering with armed groups. The minerals travel via river and land routes into Colombia, where fraudulent paperwork...
The Global Questions Series explores the Butterfly Effect, showing how tiny diplomatic signals or policy tweaks can cascade into major geopolitical outcomes. It explains that initial conditions—power balances, leadership psychology, and economic interdependence—shape the trajectory of international systems. By contrasting...
Javier Milei’s liberal‑market agenda has sparked a sharp divide in Argentina, with early macro data showing a modest rebound while safety‑net programs crumble for the poor. Supporters hail the reforms as a break from historic boom‑bust cycles, whereas critics warn...
The U.S. State Department lodged a formal protest with Ukraine after a drone strike hit Russia’s Black Sea oil terminal in Novorossiysk, damaging American economic interests. Ukrainian Ambassador Olha Stefanishyna confirmed the warning, urging Kyiv to refrain from targeting U.S....
Private credit allocations to emerging markets hit record levels in 2025‑2026, shifting capital from traditional hubs to cities like Mumbai, São Paulo, Mexico City, and Jakarta. The surge is driven by bank retrenchment, robust demographic growth, and attractive relative yields compared...
At the CARICOM summit in St. Kitts and Nevis, leaders denounced U.S. interventions, highlighting a de‑facto oil blockade on Cuba and pressure on the island’s medical‑mission exports. Prime Minister Terrance Drew described severe shortages of food, water and electricity, while...
New Zealand’s foreign minister announced a NZ $30 million aid suspension to the Cook Islands after the Pacific nation failed to consult Wellington on a deep‑sea mining partnership with China. The dispute centers on the interpretation of the Cook Islands’ free‑association status...
Timor‑Leste is leveraging its recent ASEAN membership to accelerate a sustainable tourism strategy that showcases its pristine marine and mountainous assets. By joining ASEAN, the nation gains access to regional marketing channels and co‑branding opportunities, allowing it to present itself...
Trump’s 2026 State of the Union devoted nearly 1,200 words to Latin American policy, far outpacing other regional references. The speech stressed new trade tariffs, immigration reforms, and security cooperation, echoing recent moves such as Honduras expelling Cuban doctors and...
On February 5, the United States and Argentina signed a bilateral agreement that goes beyond tariff cuts to align trade, investment, and national‑security priorities in critical minerals and energy. The pact obliges Argentina to facilitate U.S. investment across the entire...
China signaled it will weigh counter‑measures after the United States imposed a temporary 15% tariff on all imports, while urging Washington to cancel unilateral duties and resume frank trade talks. A new IISS study warned that ongoing anti‑corruption purges have...
India has unveiled a revamped Consumer Price Index, shifting the base year from 2012 to 2024 and overhauling the basket composition and weighting methodology. The new series shows a headline retail inflation of 2.75% in January 2026, markedly lower than...
China’s Ministry of Commerce escalated economic pressure on Japan by adding 20 Japanese firms to its export control list and another 20 to a watch list, targeting dual‑use items. Foreign Minister Wang Yi intensified rhetoric, accusing Japan of harboring ambitions...
The article examines how Treasury bond returns move together with U.S. stock returns, showing that comovement has shifted from positive in the 1980s to negative in the 2000s and back to positive after 2022. Using rolling 90‑day regressions on daily...
Mexico’s exports to the United States reached record levels last week, yet the country’s trade surplus with its northern neighbor contracted. Analysts attribute the paradox to a strategic reconfiguration of Mexican supply chains, increasingly funneling production toward the U.S. market...
The United States stopped collecting tariffs that had been invalidated under emergency authority, while President Trump announced a sweeping 15% global tariff that exempts Canada and Mexico but hits Europe hard. Panama reclaimed two strategic canal ports after a court...
ByteDance launched Doubao 2.0 just before the Chinese New Year, reaching roughly 155 million weekly active users and touting a pro version that rivals Western models at a tenth of the cost. Alibaba countered with a 3 billion‑yuan voucher campaign tied to its...
On 27 January 2026 a Russian Shahed drone struck Ukraine’s Brody pumping station, shutting the Druzhba pipeline’s southern branch that supplies Russian Urals crude to Hungary and Slovakia. The outage, now in its 27th day, has cut 60‑70 % of feedstock for MOL...
The European Union is accelerating its engagement with the Indo‑Pacific, highlighted by high‑level visits to India and new free‑trade agreements with Indonesia and a pending deal with India. This pivot reflects two structural shifts: a push for strategic autonomy away...
The Council of Institutional Investors (CII) submitted a comment letter backing Nasdaq’s proposed rule that adds initial listing criteria for Chinese micro‑cap companies, including a $25 million minimum proceeds requirement. CII applauds the effort to curb abnormal trading in the smallest...
The Mexican army killed CJNG boss "El Mencho" near Puerto Vallarta, triggering fierce gun battles and an unprecedented U.S. military task‑force partnership. President Trump announced a new 15% tariff regime under Section 122, but it can only stay in effect for...
Armenia’s aging Soviet‑era nuclear reactor leaves the country on the brink of an energy crisis, and Moscow’s dwindling support after the Ukraine war has removed its traditional security backstop. U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance recently signed a nuclear cooperation deal...
India is rapidly pivoting from its BRICS stance toward deeper integration with the West, highlighted by a landmark EU free‑trade agreement and its entry into the US‑led Pax Silica AI alliance. The India‑Middle‑East‑Europe Corridor (IMEC) is being repurposed from a logistics...
A wave of think‑tank discussions in early 2025 highlighted a shift in how experts view China’s role in the Middle East. After a period of heightened activity—dubbed “peak China‑MENA” between Xi’s 2022 Saudi visit and the October 2023 Hamas attack—analysts now...
The EU faces a three‑fold pressure set: stalled Russia‑Ukraine peace talks, intensified Ukrainian strikes inside Russia, and Hungary and Slovakia using the Druzhba oil pipeline as leverage over EU decisions. Because EU sanctions require unanimity, the energy transit dispute has...
The episode reviews the Asian market landscape during the week of Feb 15‑20, 2026, highlighting that Mainland China’s Lunar New Year closure shifted price discovery offshore, with earnings-driven rotation favoring North Asian hardware stocks. Korea led the earnings surge thanks...
In this episode, The Macro Butler interviews the Arigato Investors to explore why gold remains a safe‑haven asset during market turbulence and how its appeal is evolving. They discuss the shifting financial centre of gravity toward Asia, highlighting Hong Kong and...
The episode examines recent trends in foreign direct investment (FDI) to emerging markets, noting that high‑frequency data shows a steady $10 billion per week inflow, while UNCTAD’s lagging figures report a 2% decline to $875 billion last year. It explores how short‑term...
The episode examines Ukraine’s covert ‘Flamingo’ drone operations that penetrated over 1,300 km into Russian territory to strike a major missile production facility linked to President Putin. It outlines the technical capabilities of the drones, the strategic impact of disrupting...
At the Munich Security Conference, George addressed Europe’s reliance on the U.S. nuclear umbrella, noting that European nuclear forces are insufficient to deter Russia’s vastly larger arsenal. He highlighted the continent’s high population density, which amplifies the catastrophic potential of...
The episode reviews a week of heightened geopolitical coercion, highlighting how traditional diplomacy has been supplanted by a blend of negotiation and pressure tactics by major powers, especially the United States and China. It notes the U.S. leveraging multiple levers—military,...
Dan Gertler, an Israeli businessman, leveraged deep political connections to dominate Congo's cobalt mining, turning the country into a linchpin of the global battery supply chain. His network of opaque contracts and bribes enabled Western tech firms to secure cheap...
This episode curates a set of recent reports on three major themes: U.S. trade policy after the Supreme Court blocked President Trump's use of the IEEPA, escalating U.S.-Iran military tensions and Iran’s domestic challenges, and broader geoeconomic issues such as...
World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report projects global real GDP growth to slow in 2026 after a surprisingly resilient 2025. The 2025 boost stemmed from a pre‑tariff trade surge and modest monetary easing, but those advantages are fading. New trade...
Afghanistan has re‑emerged as a venue for great‑power competition below the threshold of war, with China pursuing cautious economic engagement focused on mineral extraction and limited infrastructure projects. U.S. analysis shows Chinese contracts have underperformed and remain exploratory, leaving a...
George Friedman argues that the United States should not be blamed for Europe’s security dilemma, emphasizing that both sides feel betrayed. He notes that Europe, a patchwork of nearly 50 nations, has the economic capacity to defend itself but lacks...
