Trump to Host Brazilian President Lula in Test of Fitful Relationship
US President Donald Trump will host Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at the White House on May 7, marking the first face‑to‑face since Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on Brazilian imports in July 2025. The agenda centers on security cooperation against powerful gangs and narco‑terrorism, as well as U.S. interest in Brazil’s vast rare‑earth mineral reserves. Partial tariff relief signals a tentative thaw in trade ties, while Lula seeks to bolster his domestic image ahead of a tightly contested October election against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
Bloomberg Daybreak Asia: US-Iran Deal Optimism (Podcast)
Asian equities reached record highs as optimism grew that the United States and Iran are nearing a deal to end their conflict. A one‑page memorandum proposes reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports, while...
Philippines Urges Myanmar to Grant ASEAN Special Envoy Access to Aung San Suu Kyi
The Philippines, chair of ASEAN, urged Myanmar to let the bloc’s special envoy meet Aung San Suu Kyi after her reported transfer from prison to house arrest. Manila welcomed the partial sentence reduction as a confidence‑building step but pressed for brief access to...
Morning Brief Podcast: India's Biggest Trade Partner Is China, Now What?
China has displaced the United States as India’s largest trading partner, pushing total bilateral trade to $151 billion. The shift has driven India’s trade deficit with Beijing to a record $112 billion, highlighting a widening imbalance. Beijing’s new supply‑chain regulations threaten firms...
China Asks Banks to Pause New Loans to US-Sanctioned Refiners
China’s National Financial Regulatory Administration has instructed the nation’s largest banks to temporarily suspend new yuan‑denominated loans to five refiners sanctioned by the United States for alleged Iranian oil ties, including major private player Hengli Petrochemical. The directive allows banks...
Sun Life Quarterly Profit Jumps on Asia Business Strength
Sun Life’s first‑quarter profit surged as its Asia operations delivered a 17% jump in underlying net income to C$216 million (about $160 million USD). Canadian‑based earnings also rose, with the Canada segment up 7% to C$370 million (~$274 million USD) and earnings per share...
Trade Officials Meet in Bid to Finalise US-Thai Agreement
Thailand’s commerce minister Suphajee Suthumpun met USTR officials Jamieson Greer and Rick Switzer to push the pending Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) toward completion. Both sides described the talks as constructive and agreed to accelerate negotiations to avoid potential US...
Kyodo News Digest: May 7, 2026
The G7 trade ministers pledged to resist economic coercion, targeting China’s export controls on critical minerals, while China urged continued negotiations to end the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. Japan demonstrated its maritime capabilities by firing anti‑ship missiles in the Balikatan...
The New Scramble: Turkey, Somalia and the Battle for the Red Sea
Turkey has deepened its partnership with Somalia, moving from humanitarian aid and soft‑power projects to a high‑stakes oil agreement and expanded military presence. In early 2024 Ankara signed a deal that lets Turkish state oil firms recover up to 90%...
A Way Out via the Strait of Hormuz
The United States and Iran are locked in a post‑Feb. 28, 2026 confrontation that includes a US naval blockade and Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Scholars argue that the long‑standing time‑inconsistency of sanctions‑relief deals and accumulated political debt make a...
Commentary: Deepening Iran War and Hormuz Crisis Have Left India Sidelined
Iran’s recent drone strike on a UAE oil port injured three Indian nationals and earlier attacks on two Indian‑flagged vessels in the Strait of Hormuz have exposed India’s diplomatic vulnerability in the Middle East. New Delhi condemned the attacks, summoned...
Commentary: The Heat Is on Thailand to Not Just Muddle Through
Thailand’s economy is confronting a perfect storm of falling tourism arrivals, a weakening baht and an unprecedented heatwave that is straining electricity use. Inflation, long stuck near zero, is projected to climb to about 3% this year, while GDP may...
How the Petrodollar Regime Came to Be, and What Losing It Would Mean for the U.S.
The petrodollar system began in 1974 when the United States struck a deal with Saudi Arabia to price oil exclusively in dollars in exchange for military and economic support. This arrangement funneled massive oil revenues into U.S. Treasury bonds, cementing...
How the Iran War Is Affecting Latin America and the Caribbean’s Economic Outlook
The Iran war has triggered a fresh energy shock by disrupting the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly one‑fifth of global oil and gas. Latin America and the Caribbean are seeing inflation expectations rise as higher fuel, fertilizer and food...
Navigating the Many Issues Surrounding China’s Ports Abroad
China’s overseas‑port strategy has expanded to more than two dozen nations, where Chinese firms act as builders, financiers, operators and investors. Host governments tout expected gains in cargo capacity, surrounding economic zones, jobs and foreign‑exchange earnings, while critics highlight debt...
Iran’s Oil Sector and Economy Are Under Pressure as U.S. Blockade Bites
The United States’ naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, imposed on April 13, has halted all Iranian oil tankers, straining the country’s export pipeline and filling on‑shore and offshore storage to near capacity. Iran, which produces roughly four million barrels...
The Iran Standoff and the Future of Oil
The United States has officially declared the three‑day conflict with Iran over, yet diplomatic friction persists as Tehran signals a strong negotiating position. Analysts argue that Iran is likely to emerge with a strategic win, which could push global oil...
OTC Speakers Say Venezuela Reopening Hinges on Stability, Legal Clarity
At the 2026 Offshore Technology Conference, speakers warned that Venezuela’s re‑entry into the U.S. energy market hinges on political stability, clear legal frameworks, and manageable geopolitical risk. U.S. majors such as ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips have already dispatched technical teams to...
Markets Catch a Whiff of Peace as Oil Cools, but Risks Linger
A tentative US‑Iran memorandum sparked a sharp retreat in oil, with Brent falling 7% to $102 a barrel and WTI dropping 8% to $94, the steepest two‑session decline since the April ceasefire. The easing of supply‑risk fears lifted Indian equities,...
Q&A: How the Strait of Hormuz Closure Affects Global Oil Supply
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has halted the transit of roughly 20% of the world’s oil, sending shockwaves through global commodity markets. Tim Statts of Schneider Electric explains that despite the U.S. being the top oil producer, it...
Belgium Urges EU to Save Industry by Getting Tough on China
Belgium’s foreign minister Maxime Prévot called on the European Union to protect strategic sectors—including chemicals, pharmaceuticals, metals, automotive and critical minerals—from a surge of Chinese imports. He warned that the EU’s €360 billion (about $390 billion) trade deficit with China is eroding...
US to Lift Eritrea Sanctions as Red Sea Tensions Reshape Alliances
The United States plans to lift the 2021 sanctions on Eritrea around May 4, according to a State Department note. The decision reflects Washington’s reassessment of Eritrea’s strategic value along the Red Sea shipping corridor amid heightened tensions after the Strait...
Africa's Rising Relevance Amid Global Shifts: Banks Are Key Catalysts
The first quarter’s geopolitical shocks have highlighted Africa’s growing integration with the global economy. Despite tighter financing, the continent is projected to grow over 4% in 2026‑27, outpacing the 3% global forecast, driven by the African Continental Free Trade Area’s...
China and Japan Are Entering a More Dangerous Phase of Rivalry
The long‑standing China‑Japan rivalry has entered a new, more confrontational phase as Tokyo adopts a stronger military stance. Prime Minister Takaichi’s warning that a Chinese attack on Taiwan threatens Japan’s survival, the deployment of 1,000‑km Type‑12 land‑to‑ship missiles, and a...
China Will Benefit From the Iran War, Regardless of Any Deal Between Trump and Tehran
The Iran war is reshaping Gulf security calculations, exposing limits in U.S. military deterrence and prompting Gulf states to diversify defence procurement. China, while not positioning itself as a security guarantor, is leveraging diplomatic outreach—highlighted by Xi’s calls to keep...
Understanding China's Economy and the Housing Bust, with Tianlei Huang
On May 19, 2026, the Peterson Institute for International Economics hosted a virtual PIIE Insider LIVE chat featuring senior fellow Tianlei Huang. Huang discussed the evolution of China’s economy, from export‑driven manufacturing to the massive housing boom and its subsequent...
Peace Deal or Bigger War? Markets Reassess Iran Optimism After Trump Warning
Markets swung from optimism to caution as reports of a one‑page, 14‑point US‑Iran peace framework pushed Brent crude briefly below $100 and sparked a dollar sell‑off. The upbeat mood was reversed when President Donald Trump warned on Truth Social that...
India and Vietnam Target $25 Billion Trade by 2030, Sign 13 Agreements Across Key Sectors
India and Vietnam elevated their relationship to an Enhanced Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and signed 13 agreements spanning critical minerals, digital payments, pharmaceuticals, tourism and education. Both sides set a target to boost bilateral trade to $25 billion by 2030. Key deals...
India’s Energy Risk Surges as Sea Routes Turn Strategic
India’s energy security is increasingly threatened by the strategic weaponisation of maritime chokepoints. About half of its crude oil and 90% of LPG/LNG imports travel through the Strait of Hormuz, while over a third of its overall trade depends on...
Indonesia Urges Restraint as Iran-US Tensions Spill Into UAE
Indonesia's foreign ministry voiced deep concern over recent missile and drone strikes on UAE oil facilities, urging all parties to exercise maximum restraint. The statement, posted on X, did not assign blame but warned that further escalation could disrupt global...
Chokepoints Review: Is Economic Warfare Here to Stay?
Edward Fishman's new paperback *Chokepoints* argues that control over the US dollar, advanced microchip technology and critical energy supply chains has become the primary weapon of 21st‑century geopolitics. Drawing on his tenure in the State Department’s sanctions teams, Fishman shows...
Africa Forward Summit Will Be Judged by What It Delivers
The Africa Forward Summit, co‑hosted by Kenya and France in May 2026, aims to turn rising global recognition of Africa into concrete outcomes. Organisers stress delivery on established priorities—infra‑structure, industrial capacity, digital investment and climate finance—rather than new declarations. The...
Business Ties and Financial Reform in Focus at Africa Forward
The Africa Forward summit in Nairobi, hosted by France, placed trade, investment and financial reform at the forefront. French President Emmanuel Macron and Kenyan President William Ruto pledged to boost private‑sector investment across health, education, digital technology, energy and infrastructure,...
Vietnam Real Estate Market 2026 Weathering Headwinds Embracing a New Cycle
Vietnam’s real estate sector is poised for a new growth cycle as the incoming government rolls out key legal frameworks that promise greater regulatory transparency and stability. Accelerating inter‑regional infrastructure and rapid urbanisation are reshaping demand toward genuine housing needs...
Can Indonesia Turn Holiday Island Bali Into a Global Financial Hub?
Indonesia announced plans to develop Bali’s Kura Kura Special Economic Zone into an international financial centre, mirroring Dubai, Hong Kong and Singapore. The government aims for $7 billion in investments by 2029, with $93 million already realised and 2,146 jobs created. Incentives...
Middle East Conflict Set to Test ASEAN Unity as Leaders Gather in Cebu for Summit
ASEAN leaders convene in Cebu amid the escalating Iran‑Israel conflict that threatens global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The summit’s agenda is dominated by energy security, with member states weighing the impact of disrupted supplies on their economies....
EU Cyber Plan Barring Chinese Suppliers Will Cost US$430 Billion: Report
The European Union is set to adopt a new Cybersecurity Act that would bar Chinese hardware from critical infrastructure such as telecoms, energy grids, and transport networks. A recent study estimates the required replacement of Chinese equipment will cost the...
COMMENT: Iran War’s Geopolitical Risks Alone Is Not Enough to Cause a Global Recession
Oxford Economics’ Ben May argues that the recent surge in the Geopolitical Risk index, driven by the Iran‑Israel conflict and the Gulf war, is unlikely to become the main catalyst for a global recession. While the war has tightened energy...
Resilient, Not Shock-Free: India Charts Path Through War Jitters
India’s economy is feeling the tremors of the West Asia conflict, with rising oil prices and trade disruptions testing its resilience. While the Finance Ministry’s April review notes strong domestic demand and solid policy buffers, export volumes fell 7.4% in...
Iran Enforces New ‘Sovereign’ Transit Rules in Strait of Hormuz, Mandates Prior Permits for Vessels
Iran has instituted a permit‑based system requiring all vessels to obtain electronic authorization before transiting the Strait of Hormuz, designating a specific maritime corridor for passage. The move, announced by the Persian Gulf Strait Authority and backed by the IRGC...
What to Know About Israeli President Herzog’s Trip to Central America?
Israeli President Isaac Herzog will travel May 6‑9 to Panama and Costa Rica, marking the first Israeli presidential visit to the region. The tour aims to cement diplomatic ties as Israel confronts growing international isolation over its Middle‑East conflicts. Panama, a current non‑permanent...
How to Get Back Into Emerging Markets Using ETFs
Emerging‑market ETFs are back in focus as Canadian investors notice a sharp performance gap: the iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index ETF (XEC) posted a 25.34% return in Canadian dollars for 2024‑25, versus 12.06% for the S&P 500 ETF (XUS)....
China Private Survey Rating Dog Services PMI 52.6 in April (up From 52.1 in March)
China's private RatingDog services PMI rose to 52.6 in April from 52.1 in March, indicating a faster expansion pace. New orders grew for a 40‑month streak, driven chiefly by domestic demand, while export orders fell for a second consecutive month....
SelectUSA Summit: Indian Companies Pledge ₹1.1 Billion Investment and 1,500 Jobs
At the SelectUSA Investment Summit, twelve Indian companies announced a combined $1.1 billion investment in the United States, covering aerospace, defence, energy, advanced manufacturing and artificial intelligence. The largest single investor, Abhyuday Group, will spend $900 million to create manufacturing clusters in...
West Asia War May Briefly Dent India's Growth as Fundamentals Strong: Memani
The West Asia war is expected to temporarily dent India’s growth, nudging the FY27 forecast down from the pre‑war 7‑7.4% range toward the RBI’s 6.9% outlook. Inflation has spiked, with wholesale‑price‑index rising to 3.88% in March while consumer‑price‑index remains within...
Moody?s Raises Vietnam Outlook to Positive on Reform Gains- #CapitalMarkets #Finance #Treasury #Finance
Moody’s Investors Service upgraded Vietnam’s sovereign outlook to positive while affirming its Ba2 rating. The agency cited accelerating institutional reforms—such as ministry mergers and streamlined regulations—that are expected to improve credit quality. Vietnam posted 7.0% GDP growth in 2024 and...
Are We Headed Toward a US-China Trade Showdown?
President Donald Trump is set to travel to Beijing within two weeks, sparking speculation of a renewed US‑China trade showdown. The upcoming talks will likely focus on contentious issues such as the Iran war, Washington’s push for stricter “rules of...
Why Russia’s Richest Woman Tatyana Kim Has High Hopes for Africa
Russia’s e‑commerce giant Wildberries, founded by billionaire Tatyana Kim, announced a strategic push into Africa after signing a partnership with Ethiopia’s sovereign wealth fund. The platform, which drives more than $50 billion in annual sales and runs over 90,000 pick‑up points across...
Rare Earths, PCBs Among 40 Sub-Sectors on FDI Fast Track
India has placed rare‑earth magnets and printed circuit boards among 40 sub‑sectors eligible for a 60‑day fast‑track FDI clearance. The new SOP requires detailed ownership disclosure for investors from China or other bordering nations, with data shared with the RBI....
Indonesia's 5.61% Q1 Growth Hides Weak Fundamentals, Economists Warn
Indonesia’s economy expanded 5.61% year‑on‑year in the first quarter of 2026, the quickest pace in almost three years. The surge was largely fueled by a spike in household consumption as millions of Muslims returned home for Eid al‑Fitr. Economists warn...