China’s Return to Infrastructure-Led Growth
China has pivoted back to infrastructure‑driven growth after lackluster consumption stimulus. First‑quarter 2026 GDP expanded 5% year‑on‑year, snapping a slowdown that began in late 2025. The producer price index turned positive, rising 0.5% YoY and ending a 41‑month deflationary run. Officials are expected to keep fiscal and monetary tools active while monitoring oil price swings and other external shocks.
South West State Crisis a Litmus Test for Somalia’s Political Future
Somalia’s South West State is at the center of a federal‑state power struggle after federal troops removed the region’s newly elected president, Abdiaziz Hassan Laftagareen, following a disputed March 28 election. The National Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission has scheduled fresh...
Citi Reaffirms Long-Term Commitment in Talks with Vietnam's New Government
Citi reaffirmed its long‑term commitment to Vietnam during a high‑profile U.S. business delegation visit to Hanoi, the first public‑private dialogue with the country’s new government. The trip involved 52 U.S. companies and 120 delegates, highlighting Vietnam’s appeal as a supply‑chain...
Trump’s Southeast Asia Trade Deals Are in Limbo
Malaysia has become the first Southeast Asian nation to formally terminate its tariff agreement with the Trump administration after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled the president lacked authority for the “Liberation Day” tariffs. The decision leaves six ASEAN members—Cambodia, Indonesia,...
India Among Most Resilient as Global Shocks Test Emerging Markets: Moody’s Ratings
Moody’s Ratings finds that India and Thailand have emerged as the most resilient large emerging markets amid a series of global shocks since 2020. Clear monetary policy frameworks, anchored inflation expectations and flexible exchange rates helped these economies absorb stress...
Asia Fracturing Into Energy Security Haves and Have-Nots
Asia’s once‑uniform growth story is fracturing into tiers defined by energy security. Wealthy economies such as Japan, South Korea and Singapore can leverage massive foreign‑exchange reserves to secure fuel and stabilize currencies, while lower‑resilience nations face soaring inflation, weaker currencies...
Asia Absorbs Rising, Uneven Cost of Energy Crisis Caused by War on Iran
Asia, the world’s largest oil‑importing region, is feeling the brunt of the energy shock triggered by the U.S. and Israel’s war on Iran. Oil imports fell 30% in April, the lowest level since 2015, prompting the Asian Development Bank to...
Korea and Taiwan: When an AI Boom Lifts a Nation
Korea and Taiwan are reaping unprecedented AI‑driven windfalls as Samsung, SK Hynix and TSMC surge into the world’s most profitable firms. The profit‑sharing model channels billions of dollars into employee bonuses—up to $477,000 per engineer at SK Hynix—fueling a sharp rise in...
How China’s New Trade Rules Aim to Nullify Trump Sovereignty Push
Beijing unveiled broad trade rules that allow Chinese authorities to investigate and punish foreign firms that shift sourcing away from China, a move announced just weeks before President Trump’s summit with Xi Jinping. The regulations target any “suspension of normal...
CNBC's The China Connection Newsletter: China Is Rewiring the Silicon Valley Model — Starting in Hong Kong
China’s tech financing is rapidly shifting to Hong Kong, where more than 400 firms are queuing for IPOs—the largest surge in 35 years. Confidential listing rules and easing regulations have spurred a pipeline that could raise about $60 billion in 2026, nearly...
The US Blockade of Hormuz: Who Holds the Advantage?
The United States entered its third week of a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, forcing 38 Iranian‑linked vessels to divert and boarding several ships in the Indian Ocean. Iran has responded by reviving a selective‑closure policy and moving...
How US Tech Hegemony Is Locking Out the Global South
The United States is leveraging patents, export bans and alliance‑driven standards to cement a monopoly over emerging technologies such as 6G, creating a closed‑loop ecosystem that excludes non‑aligned nations. This strategy has choked the Global South, from African farmers forced...
Infrastructure Fund Timely
President William Ruto announced Kenya’s National Infrastructure Fund to cut reliance on borrowing and channel domestic capital into development. The country faces a $12 billion annual infrastructure need through 2040, leaving a $2.1 billion yearly financing gap. The fund is designed to...
IMF Says Worst-Case Global Economy Warning Is Now the Working Assumption - Oil Shock Hit
The International Monetary Fund has dropped its mild slowdown baseline and moved to an adverse scenario, warning that a prolonged Middle East conflict could keep oil at $125 a barrel through 2027. Georgieva said this price path would generate a...
How Chinese Carmaker Geely Put Roots in the U.S.
Chinese automaker Zhejiang Geely Holding Group leverages its stakes in Volvo, Polestar and Lotus to gain U.S. dealer networks and potential factory capacity. The under‑utilized Volvo plant in South Carolina, capable of 150,000 units, could host Chinese‑branded models such as...
Japan Touts ‘Peace of Mind’ Development in Africa
Japan’s foreign minister Motegi outlined a new development model for Africa that blends long‑term peace, societal growth and strategic trade under a revised Free and Open Indo‑Pacific (FOIP) policy. Tokyo remains the largest official development assistance (ODA) donor in sub‑Saharan...
Drone or Missile Strikes Reported in the UAE
Iran launched four loitering munitions toward the UAE, three were intercepted over territorial waters and one fell into the sea, prompting explosions in Dubai, Jebel Ali and Fujairah. A cargo vessel 36 nm north of Dubai suffered an engine‑room fire of unknown...
Sri Lanka: FDI Is on the Rise
Sri Lanka’s Board of Investment reported a 72% jump in 2025 foreign direct investment, topping $1.06 billion for the first time. Greenfield projects surged, accounting for 13% of total FDI with 24 new ventures worth $134 million. The inflow is led by...
The Consensus on China’s Economy Is Strong—And Wrong
Arvind Subramanian argues that the prevailing view of China’s economy— that it sacrifices domestic consumers for export‑driven growth— is fundamentally flawed. He notes that Chinese households have seen living‑standard gains faster than any other nation in recorded history. While China’s...
Mercosur FTA Enters Force Eight Months Before the EUDR Roll Out
The EU‑Mercosur free‑trade agreement entered provisional force after more than two decades of talks, allowing Brazilian soy, beef, coffee, cocoa and forest products to flow into Europe. This activation occurs eight months before the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) takes effect...
What Orban’s 16-Year China Experiment Reveals About Europe
Viktor Orban’s defeat in the 2026 election ends a 16‑year China experiment that left Hungary as the EU’s top recipient of Chinese investment – about $3.4 bn in 2024, or 31 % of all Chinese FDI in Europe. The “Eastern Opening” created a...
Chinese Electric Vehicle Exports Rise Amid the Oil Crisis, Posing a Dilemma for Importing Countries
Chinese electric‑vehicle exports surged to record levels in 2025 and continued rising through March 2026, driven by high oil prices from the Iran war. Canada has approved the entry of 49,000 Chinese EVs at a 6.1% tariff, while Chinese automakers...
IMF Warns Angola It Could Reach Debt Ceiling
The International Monetary Fund warned that Angola’s public debt will reach its legal ceiling within the next few years. The IMF advises the government to channel an anticipated windfall from oil prices above $100 a barrel into debt reduction and...
US Tech Can Use China as ‘Listening Post’ for Global Edge, Washington Think Tank Explains
The Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF) released a report urging U.S. technology companies to remain active in China despite political pressure. It cites 1,950 American firms with Chinese affiliates in 2023, including Amazon, Apple, Microsoft and Tesla, and argues...
Economic Policy Uncertainty and Aggregate Economic Activity in India
The Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) Index for India, built from newspaper mentions of policy‑related risk, shows a clear negative relationship with key macro variables. Higher EPU values coincide with slower growth in private consumption, gross fixed capital formation, and overall...
Australia and Japan Expand Ties with Focus on Economic Security
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida pledged on May 4, 2026 to deepen cooperation on economic security. The bilateral agenda centers on building resilient supply chains for energy, critical minerals, food and manufactured goods. Both governments cited...
Commission Blocks EU Funding for Huawei Solar Tech
The European Commission announced it will block EU funding for solar‑panel inverters supplied by high‑risk vendors such as China’s Huawei. Guidance will restrict the use of EU money on projects that rely on these components, though existing projects can apply...
UK Seeks Access to EU’s €5B Tech Scale-Up Fund
The European Union and the United Kingdom will begin negotiations to let Britain tap a new €5 billion ($5.4 billion) tech‑scale‑up fund. The fund, part of Horizon Europe, is designed for late‑stage equity investments that exceed the €30 million cap of earlier programs....
The Geopolitical Battle Over Monetary Infrastructure
The United States has publicly warned Brazil over its instant‑payment system Pix, viewing the platform as a challenge to traditional monetary sovereignty. The article argues that control of payment rails—ranging from retail‑level instant transfers to wholesale central‑bank digital currencies—has become...
China’s Unprecedented Defiance of U.S. Sanctions Triggers Showdown
China has ordered its firms to ignore U.S. sanctions on private refiners tied to Iran’s oil trade, marking an unprecedented defiant stance ahead of the Trump‑Xi summit. The directive specifically targets companies like Hengli Petrochemical’s Dalian refinery, which was sanctioned...
Kallas: US Troop Withdrawal ‘Comes as a Surprise’
EU foreign minister Kaja Kallas said the United States' decision to pull roughly 5,000 troops from Germany caught European leaders off guard. The announcement was made on the sidelines of the European Political Community summit in Yerevan, Armenia. President Donald...
Oil Jumps by 5% After Report of US Warship Being Hit by Missiles
Oil prices surged about 5% on Monday after Iran’s Fars news agency reported that a U.S. warship was hit by missiles in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent futures climbed to $113.69 a barrel and WTI to $107.04, reversing Friday’s losses....
Guyana Tells World Court Venezuela's Claim on Oil-Rich Esequibo Region Poses Existential Threat
Guyana has asked the International Court of Justice to rule that Venezuela’s claim to the oil‑rich Esequibo region is illegitimate. The dispute covers a 160,000‑square‑kilometre area, including offshore blocks where recent discoveries have attracted global investors. Guyana’s foreign minister warned...
Two Worlds Collide: The Regulatory Battlefield Hanging over the EU’s Ties with China
A Norwegian mine experiment that let Chinese‑made Yutong buses be remotely accessed sparked fresh EU alarm over cyber‑vulnerabilities in Chinese technology. The incident helped catalyse a wave of EU legislation, including a ban on funding Chinese inverters and the Industrial...
Putting Africa’s Savings to Work for Its People
African economies sit on roughly $1 trillion of long‑term capital held by pension funds, insurers, sovereign wealth funds and banks, yet 60‑70% of that pool is locked in short‑term sovereign bonds because scalable domestic investment platforms are missing. Development banks can...
Taiwan Sends Largest Delegation Again to U.S. Investment Summit
Taiwan sent its largest foreign delegation to the 2026 SelectUSA Investment Summit, with 113 companies and a record 207 representatives. Minister of Economic Affairs Kung Ming‑hsin highlighted that Taiwan has topped foreign delegations for four consecutive years. The summit includes...
Indian Private Sector New Order Growth Quickens in April but Remains Slowest in 4 Years: PMI Survey Shows
India’s private‑sector manufacturing PMI rose to 54.7 in April, up from 53.9 in March, indicating modest expansion as the new fiscal year began. The improvement was driven by stronger new orders and output, with export orders hitting a seven‑month high....
India to Host 4th India-Africa Forum Summit After a Decade, Focus on Strategic Partnership, Investment and Innovation Across Africa
India will host its fourth India‑Africa Forum Summit in May, the first such gathering in a decade. The event, themed “India‑Africa Strategic Partnership for Innovation, Resilience and Inclusive Transformation (IA SPIRIT),” will feature high‑level ministerial talks, a business track and the...
Closure of the Strait of Hormuz Continues to Impact Energy Prices
The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, compounded by the US‑Israel‑Iran conflict, is keeping oil prices volatile near US $100 per barrel. Coal prices have followed, trading in a US $100‑110 band, while 6.5 % sulfur petcoke has risen to US $106 per...
Global Fragmentation Is Rewiring Asia’s Economic Future
Asia’s post‑war boom thrived on predictable globalization, cheap energy and integrated supply chains, lifting millions out of poverty. Today, escalating U.S.–China rivalry and geopolitical friction turn that interdependence into a conduit for shocks, from oil disruptions in the Strait of...
Middle East Crisis: Poison for the World, but Meat for East Africa’s Oil Dreams?
The Strait of Hormuz crisis has pushed East African leaders to fast‑track a regional oil‑refining strategy centered on Tanzania’s Tanga Refinery Hub and the 1,445 km East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP). Kenyan President William Ruto, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni and Nigerian...
Kazakhstan’s AIFC Discussing Stock-Trading Links with Shanghai, Hong Kong
The Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC) is negotiating with Hong Kong and Shanghai exchanges to launch cross‑border stock‑connection schemes, likely beginning with ETFs denominated in tenge and yuan. Kazakh investors are keen on Chinese tech giants like Tencent and carmaker BYD,...
Philippine Manufacturing Shrinks in April as War-Driven Costs Bite
The Philippines’ manufacturing PMI slipped to 48.3 in April, its first sub‑50 reading since November 2023, indicating contraction. The decline was driven by a sharp fall in new orders—the steepest since August 2021—and a surge in input‑price inflation, the fastest...
BoT Chief Calls for Targeted Stimulus Package
Bank of Thailand Governor Vitai Ratanakorn urged the government to craft a stimulus package that mixes cash transfers with sector‑specific investment to offset rising energy costs from the Middle‑East conflict. He warned that a premature rate hike, despite the BoT’s...
Trump Says the US Will 'Guide' Stranded Ships From the Strait of Hormuz, Starting on Monday
President Donald Trump announced "Project Freedom," a U.S. operation to guide stranded commercial vessels and roughly 20,000 seafarers out of the Iran‑blocked Strait of Hormuz starting Monday. The effort will involve guided‑missile destroyers, more than 100 aircraft and about 15,000...
Uzbekistan Receives Major Asian Development Bank Economic Assistance Package
The Asian Development Bank announced a $12.5 billion assistance package for Uzbekistan, spanning a partnership program through 2030. The funding will boost private‑sector growth, a stable mortgage market, and entrepreneurship among youth and women. At the same meeting, ADB unveiled a...
South Korean Economy Highly Exposed to US Ally Gone Rogue- #CapitalMarkets #Finance
South Korea’s economy, heavily reliant on exports and energy imports, faces heightened risk from President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade and security policies. The United States has kept tariffs at 15% after Seoul committed to invest roughly $350 billion in the U.S.,...
Quantifying the Impact of the Iran War on US Inflation
The authors combine a calibrated DSGE model of the global oil market with a monthly structural VAR to estimate how the 2026 Iran war’s oil‑supply shock could affect U.S. inflation. A 15 % shortfall lasting one quarter pushes WTI crude to...
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De-Dollarization: What Is It, and Is It Happening?
De‑dollarization describes the gradual reduction of the U.S. dollar’s dominance as the world’s primary reserve currency. The IMF reports the dollar’s share of allocated reserves fell to about 57% in Q4 2025, down from over 70% in 2001. China’s renminbi, gold...
‘Reset’ or ‘Calculated Stabilisation’? Why Ties Between China and the Philippines Appear to Be Warming
After four years of friction, Manila and Beijing are moving toward a tentative thaw, but analysts describe it as a calculated stabilisation rather than a full reset. The shift is driven by energy‑supply shocks, the Philippines’ ASEAN chairmanship, and the...