Iran War Shakes Global Economy as Energy Costs Surge and Recession Fears Grow
In just over nine weeks, the Iran war has sent shockwaves through the global economy, driving up oil and gas prices and igniting inflationary pressures worldwide. Countries that rely on Gulf imports—such as Sri Lanka, Mexico, the United Kingdom and Nigeria—are seeing transport, food and medicine costs surge, while governments scramble with subsidies and price caps. Record corporate profits at oil majors contrast sharply with households that can barely afford basic goods, prompting protests and political instability. The International Monetary Fund warns the UK could suffer the deepest recessionary impact among major economies.
Exxon Mobil CEO Sees ‘More to Come’ on Price Spikes From Iran War as Exxon, Chevron Beat on Earnings Despite...
Exxon Mobil and Chevron posted first‑quarter earnings that beat analysts’ forecasts, yet both saw net income plunge year‑over‑year as early‑year price weakness and Middle‑East disruptions hit results. CEOs Darren Woods and Mike Wirth warned that if the Strait of Hormuz...
U.S. Targets Iran–China Oil Pipeline in Dual Sanctions Move on Shipping and Finance
The United States announced a dual‑pronged sanctions package that hits a China‑based oil terminal, Qingdao Haiye Oil Terminal Co., for handling tens of millions of barrels of Iranian crude since early 2025, and three Iranian currency‑exchange houses that convert oil...
Risk-On Mood Persists, but Watch for Volatility
Global equities have resumed their upward trajectory after the United States and Iran agreed to a cease‑fire, sustaining a risk‑on market mood. The strategy now calls for underweighting oil, which surged during the conflict, and adding gold as inflation concerns...
The IEA’s Fatih Birol on ‘the Greatest Energy Security Threat in History’
International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol told an Atlantic Council event that the ongoing war in Iran represents the greatest energy security threat in history. He warned that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could force oil prices to...
Investors Dump Philippine Securities as War Rattles Markets
Foreign portfolio investors pulled $1.96 billion from the Philippines in March, marking the largest three‑month outflow and shifting the first‑quarter net balance to a $2.81 billion loss. The retreat was most acute in government securities, which saw a $1.3 billion net outflow after...
Has De-Dollarization Begun?
U.S. President Donald Trump’s escalating conflict with Iran is prompting global policymakers to question the dollar’s dominance. At the IMF and World Bank spring meetings in Washington, officials highlighted the erosion of confidence in the U.S. financial system. UK Chancellor...
A US-India Partnership for the AI Age
The United States, while retaining a lead in frontier AI models and high‑end compute, is seeking a strategic partnership with India to secure the talent and data needed to stay ahead of China’s accelerating AI capabilities. Washington views AI as...
Developing an Africa-Focused Tech Agenda for the United States to Outcompete China
In December 2025 the Atlantic Council convened a high‑level workshop on U.S.–China competition in Africa’s tech ecosystems. The memo highlights Africa’s fast‑growing, youthful market—projected to exceed 2.5 billion people by 2050—and the need for the United States to match China’s tailored,...
Iran Doubles Down on Fight for Control over Strait of Hormuz
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei announced a new phase in Tehran’s bid to dominate the Strait of Hormuz, declaring the waterway will remain under Iranian control. He pledged to use Iran’s “modern technological capacities,” including its nuclear and missile...
China’s Soft Power Play in Africa
China has eliminated import tariffs for 53 African countries, effective today, positioning the move as a soft‑power initiative that contrasts with the United States' more punitive trade stance. The policy excludes Eswatini because of its ties to Taiwan, underscoring Beijing’s...
Etihad Expands Africa Network to Boost Cargo and Trade Links via Abu Dhabi
Etihad Airways announced a six‑city expansion of its Africa network, launching services to the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Eritrea, Ghana, Nigeria and Zimbabwe from Abu Dhabi. The move dovetails with Etihad’s recent China growth and its joint venture with...
The Price of Peace With Iran
U.S.–Iran talks have stalled despite a fragile cease‑fire and a 21‑hour summit in Islamabad. Washington’s maximalist stance and Tehran’s mistrust have prevented a durable agreement, with disputes over nuclear enrichment and control of the Strait of Hormuz at the core....
Are the Ryukyu Islands an Overlooked Flashpoint in the Indo-Pacific?
The Ryukyu Islands, a 55‑island chain linking Taiwan and Japan, are emerging as a strategic flashpoint in the Indo‑Pacific. Beijing views the archipelago as a gateway to extend its naval reach, pressure Taiwan, and secure submarine transit beyond the First...
Contentious EU-Mercosur Trade Deal Takes Provisional Effect
After 25 years of talks, the EU‑Mercosur free‑trade agreement entered provisional application on Friday, despite a pending legal challenge at the EU Court of Justice. The deal removes most tariffs, linking a market of over 700 million consumers across the EU...
Europe Needs Ukraine as It Looks to Counter Growing Russian Threat
European leaders are shifting from viewing Ukraine as an aid recipient to treating it as a core security partner. Ukraine’s armed forces, now the largest and most modern in Europe, lead in drone warfare and are training troops across the...
Not So Strait-Forward
Global markets face heightened stagflation risk as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, keeping energy prices elevated. In the United States, the Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady with only a single cut later in the year, while...
Sell in May and Go Away? Maybe Not
U.S. equities have surged, with the S&P 500 up 9.2% through April and on track for its strongest April performance since 2020. The rally is fueled by easing Iran tensions, expectations of the Strait of Hormuz reopening, and solid Q1 earnings....
Asian Currencies Wilting in the Iran War’s Heat
Asian currencies are sliding as the Iran‑Israel conflict pushes oil above $120 a barrel and fuels capital outflows. In India, the rupee fell to a fresh record low of 95.34 per dollar, prompting the RBI to lean on its $700 billion...
Give Our Bullion Back: India Wants Its Gold Under Own Lock and Key
India is rapidly repatriating its gold, with the Reserve Bank of India now holding about 77% of its 880.5 tonnes of bullion in domestic vaults—roughly 680 tonnes. In the last six months the RBI moved 104.23 tonnes back from overseas storage, raising gold’s...
UAE’s OPEC Exit Hands Asia a Petroyuan Moment
On May 1, 2026 the United Arab Emirates formally quit OPEC after nearly six decades, ending its participation in the cartel that underpins the petrodollar system. The departure frees Murban crude from the organization’s dollar‑only pricing rules, allowing contracts to...
Azerbaijan Summons EU Ambassador over European Parliament Resolution
Azerbaijan’s foreign ministry summoned the EU ambassador on May 1 to protest a European Parliament resolution that criticised Baku’s post‑war policies in Nagorno‑Karabakh. The note of protest called the resolution biased, baseless and an interference in Azerbaijan’s internal affairs. The dispute...
Iran-Linked Shock’s Impact on Emerging Europe Seen Milder than 2022 Crisis, Says Wiiw Economist
Emerging Europe is feeling a new geopolitical shock tied to Iran, but Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) says the impact will be far less severe than the 2022 crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Oil prices have...
India, UAE Trade Pact Helps Boost Bilateral Trade to Cross $100 Billion: Goyal
India’s free‑trade pact with the United Arab Emirates, in force since May 2022, has pushed bilateral commerce past the $100 billion mark. Trade reached $101.25 billion in FY 2025‑26, up from $100.03 billion the prior year, driven by stronger merchandise flows and expanding services. Exports...
The Kremlin Has Stopped Hiding It. Russia’s Economy in Crisis
Russia’s economy has entered a openly acknowledged crisis as sanctions and the four‑year war in Ukraine take their toll. Deputy chief of staff Maxim Oreshkin told state media the economy faces severe resource and labor shortages, sluggish structural reforms, and...
What Alternatives Do Gulf States Have to the Strait of Hormuz?
The Strait of Hormuz, which moves roughly 20 million barrels of oil and a fifth of global LNG each day, remains largely closed two months into the Iran‑UAE conflict. Saudi Arabia's East‑West Petroline and the UAE's Adcop together supply only 3.5‑5.5 million...
The World’s Central Banks Are Wrestling With a Gigantic Problem
The Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Bank of England and European Central Bank all chose to keep short‑term interest rates unchanged this week. Policymakers cite surging inflation, slowing growth and heightened uncertainty from the Iran‑driven energy shock. In Washington, the...
West Asia Conflict May Trigger $800 Billion Capex Boost for India, but Oil and Fertiliser Risks Remain: Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley says the West Asia conflict could spark an $800 billion surge in Indian capital expenditure over the next five years. The brokerage lifted its investment‑rate forecast to 37.5% of GDP by 2030, with roughly 60% of the new spend...
Japan-Australia Frigate Deal About Far More than 11 Warships
The “Mogami Memorandum” signed aboard the JS Kumano in Melbourne formalizes a $14.4 bn contract for 11 next‑generation Mogami‑class frigates for the Royal Australian Navy. Japan will build the first three vessels in Nagasaki and the remaining eight at Henderson, Western Australia,...
Global X India Active ETF Q1 2026 Commentary
Indian equities fell sharply in Q1 2026, with the MSCI India Index down 18.13% as geopolitical volatility and a 90% reliance on imported oil pressured sentiment. The Global X India Active ETF (NDIA) outperformed the benchmark by leveraging strong stock selection...
UAE Strikes Back at Turkey in Fight to Become Global Investor Haven
The United Arab Emirates is countering Turkey’s bid to become the region’s premier offshore investment hub by loosening Dubai’s property‑linked residency rules and rolling out a new R&D tax‑credit programme. The visa reform eliminates the AED 750,000 ($202,500) minimum for sole...
Germany Rearms – but Can It Lead? Europe’s Hesitant Superpower in Waiting
Germany has launched a €100 billion ($108 billion) special fund to overhaul the Bundeswehr, pushing defense spending above the NATO 2%‑of‑GDP threshold. The program funds F‑35 jets, Leopard 2 tanks and a permanent brigade in Lithuania, signaling a shift toward strategic leadership. Yet...
Rokos Capital Moving Forward with UAE Expansion After Securing Abu Dhabi Licence
Rokos Capital Management, the $22 bn hedge fund founded by Chris Rokos, has received a full licence from the Abu Dhabi Global Market to open an office in the emirate’s Sky Tower. The London‑based firm will use the new base to...
Govt to Continue with Budgeted Capex Despite Fiscal Stress Due to Global Uncertainties: Official
The Indian government has reaffirmed its commitment to spend the budgeted Rs 12.22 lakh crore (approximately $147 billion) on capital expenditure this fiscal year, despite mounting fiscal pressure from the West Asia crisis. Expenditure Secretary V Vualnam emphasized that infrastructure projects in highways, railways, shipping,...
War in the Gulf and on US Free Speech
Brent crude jumped to $126 a barrel after President Trump said he would extend the Iranian port blockade for months, pushing oil markets into volatility. Iran’s war‑driven inflation has surged to roughly 50%, deepening its economic collapse. The United Arab...
The New Centre of Market Resilience
African investors are increasingly demanding custodial services that combine global reach with local expertise as capital markets mature across the continent. Absa argues that custody has moved from a back‑office function to a central, tech‑driven platform essential for trade settlement,...
Gold Digger: Is US$8000 REALLY on the Cards?
Deutsche Bank analysts project gold could climb to $8,000 per ounce within five years if emerging‑market central banks allocate 40% of their reserves to the metal. The forecast follows a record‑breaking first quarter of 2026, where the World Gold Council...
China Urges US to Preserve ‘Stability’ in Ties, Warns Taiwan Is ‘Risk Point’
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged the United States to preserve the "hard‑won stability" in China‑U.S. relations during a call with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, warning that Taiwan remains the biggest risk point. The conversation also touched on the...
India’s Great Nicobar Project Aims to Strengthen Maritime Connectivity and Strategic Presence
India’s Great Nicobar Project is a multi‑phase, $0‑cost infrastructure programme slated for 2025‑2047 that will build a deep‑water transshipment port, a greenfield international airport, a 450 MVA hybrid gas‑solar power plant, and a new township on Great Nicobar Island. The 14.2 million...
Iran War Redraws Sea Routes with Africa as the Pivot
The Iran‑related war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have forced global container traffic to bypass the Red Sea, turning Africa’s eastern coast into the main conduit between Asia and Europe. Major carriers now unload in Jeddah and...
Record-Low Spreads on EM Asia High-Grade Debt Show Resilience
Emerging‑market Asian investment‑grade dollar bonds posted a record‑low spread of about 56 basis points on Thursday, the tightest level recorded since Bloomberg began tracking the index in 2009. The compression reflects a sharp drop in new issuance across the region...
ASEAN Ministers Warn Middle East War Threatens Energy Security and Regional Growth
ASEAN economic ministers issued a joint communique warning that the war in the Middle East threatens global energy security and could markedly slow growth in the region. They highlighted that the Strait of Hormuz transports roughly one‑quarter of the world’s...
Very Excited About Indian Market, Says Apple's Tim Cook
Apple CEO Tim Cook told investors he is "over the moon" about India, where iPhone, iPad and Mac sales have risen double‑digit percentages. Apple now runs six retail stores in the country and saw Freshworks deploy more than 5,000 MacBooks,...
Trump Bets on Quick Iran Oil Crunch. Experts See Prolonged Pain and Rising Costs.
The Trump administration is pressing its naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, claiming Iran’s oil storage is on the verge of collapse within days. White House officials argue the pressure will force Tehran to meet U.S. demands as gasoline...
It's Not Just Oil: Iran War Also Threatens Asia's Food Security
War between the United States, Israel and Iran has shut the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off roughly a third of global fertiliser shipments. At the same time China imposed a 50‑80% ban on fertiliser exports to safeguard domestic supplies. The...
Morningstar DBRS Confirms Mexico at BBB, Stable Trend
Morningstar DBRS confirmed Mexico’s long‑term sovereign rating at BBB and short‑term rating at R‑2, both with a Stable trend. The agency highlighted the Sheinbaum administration’s fiscal consolidation, noting the public‑sector borrowing requirement fell to 4.9% of GDP in 2025 and...
China Policy Sparks Dilemma
China's State Council unveiled regulations on industrial and supply‑chain security, compelling foreign investors to adopt a dual‑track supply‑chain and IT framework. The rules place firms in a dilemma: complying with U.S. sanctions could breach Chinese law, while ignoring U.S. restrictions...
Commentary: Washington Courts Manila, but the Rest of Southeast Asia Is Watching
Washington is quietly deepening economic ties with the Philippines despite a broader focus on the Iran war and rising oil prices. A $60 million aid package fuels the Luzon Economic Corridor, including a 4,000‑acre high‑tech hub in New Clark City and...
Pentagon Reveals $25B Price Tag on Iran War
The Pentagon disclosed that U.S. involvement in the Iran conflict has already cost roughly $25 billion. The tally covers accelerated deployments, munitions consumption, and logistical support for forces stationed in the Middle East. Officials say the spending is straining the defense...
Inside Wealth: Markets Are Underpricing the Risk of Middle East Pullback in AI, Says Tech Investor Jack Selby
Tech investor Jack Selby warns that Middle East sovereign‑wealth funds, which account for roughly a quarter of global AI spending over the next five years, could pull back if the Iran war drags on. A potential retreat could withdraw hundreds...