Who Really Drives Innovation
In a new macro‑economic study, Paolo Surico and co‑authors use detailed patent records to trace the impact of publicly funded research in the United States since World War II. Their analysis shows that the National Institutes of Health and the National Science Foundation, rather than the Pentagon, are most closely tied to productivity‑boosting breakthroughs. The authors argue that basic research, not the sector of origin, drives the outsized effect, with just 2% of patents accounting for roughly 20% of productivity growth. The paper also highlights that government‑backed startups outperform both incumbents and privately funded peers, and warns that the 2025 science‑funding cuts could jeopardize these gains.
How a Nation Was Born: Lessons From Four Centuries of Brazilian Growth
A new CEPR paper reconstructs Brazil’s GDP per capita from 1574 to 1920 using 30,000 archival price and wage observations. The study finds Brazil enjoyed relatively high incomes in the late‑1500s, followed by two centuries of near‑zero growth despite commodity...
Survey: SMBs Have Built “Tariff Toolkits” To Cope with Disruption
A Netstock survey shows that 82 % of U.S. small and medium‑sized businesses have begun passing tariff costs to customers, with 92 % using direct price hikes. The shift follows a year of heightened White House tariff policies that squeezed margins and...
Commentary: Get Ready for Another Summer of Rage in Asia
Asia’s Gen Z faces a summer of economic strain as the Iran war drives up fuel, food and fertilizer prices, deepening already fragile job prospects. The price shock has sparked strikes in the Philippines, protests in India and Pakistan, and threatens...
Panama Canal Traffic Climbs as Officials Downplay Congestion Fears
The Panama Canal reported a rise in traffic during the first half of fiscal year 2026, handling 6,288 transits and a 5% increase in cargo to 254 million tons. Daily vessel averages climbed to 34 in January and 37 in March,...
Flexible Dual-Use Claims Could Be New Global Trade Chokepoint
The U.S. Navy seized the Iranian‑flagged cargo vessel Touska, alleging it carried dual‑use components en route from China via Malaysia. The incident highlights how wartime pressure can reclassify ordinary commercial cargo as strategically sensitive, a trend reflected in rising EU...
Trump Moves to Extend Jones Act Waiver 90 Days as Maritime Industry Says Fuel Relief Never Came
The White House is set to extend the Jones Act waiver that began on March 17 for an additional 90 days, shifting its focus from fuel‑price relief to national‑defense logistics. The request, submitted by the Under Secretary of War, argues that...
Trump Administration Extends Jones Act Waiver for Another 90 Days
The Trump administration, after issuing a 60‑day waiver to ease coastwise transport of petroleum and fertilizer, is weighing a further 90‑day extension of the Jones Act exemption. About 40 foreign‑flagged vessels have already moved products between U.S. ports, delivering gasoline...
Container Shipping Faces Blank Sailings, Falling Demand From Prolonged Iran War
Maritime consultancy Drewry has lowered its forecast for global container‑port throughput growth to 1.8% from 2.2% in February, citing the ongoing US‑Israel war with Iran. Shipping lines anticipate a wave of blank sailings, service cancellations and routing adjustments as the...
CFOs’ Budgets Quickly Become Outdated Amid Macro Turmoil
CFOs are grappling with rapidly outdated budgets as geopolitical shocks—such as the US‑Israel conflict and blockades in the Strait of Hormuz—inject unprecedented volatility into cost structures. Rydoo’s CFO Aidana Zhakupbekova says traditional quarterly forecasts no longer suffice, prompting larger buffers...
Commerce Releases Prelim Antidumping Tariffs in India, Indonesia, Laos Solar Case
The U.S. Department of Commerce released preliminary antidumping duties on solar cells from India (123.04%), Indonesia (35.17%) and Laos (22.46%). Combined with preliminary countervailing duties, India faces the steepest overall tariff burden. The Alliance for American Solar Manufacturing and Trade,...
Iran War Slows Growth in Services, Manufacturing: S&P Global
S&P Global reports that Iran’s ongoing war has pushed the services purchasing managers index to its weakest three‑month level since early 2024, while output prices surged to a 45‑month high. Manufacturing output grew at the fastest pace in four years,...
Rare Diesel Cargoes Move From US West Coast to Australia
Three tankers have departed the U.S. West Coast carrying more than 925,000 barrels of ultra‑low sulfur diesel bound for Australia, a route rarely used before the recent Middle East conflict. The volume shipped in the past two months nearly matches...
Canadian GDP Set to Rebound in Early 2026: Survey
Canada’s economy is projected to rebound in early 2026, with the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) forecasting 1.6% GDP growth in both Q1 and Q2 after a 0.6% annualized contraction in Q4 2025. The recovery is driven by strong...
Americans Cut Spending Due to Higher Gas Prices and See No Relief in Sight, CNBC Survey Finds
A CNBC All‑America Economic Survey of 1,000 adults shows roughly 80% have altered their spending because gas prices have jumped over 30% to more than $4 per gallon since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran. More than half expect the...
Washington’s One-Dimensional Chess in the Horn of Africa
The Trump administration is reportedly holding secret talks to lift U.S. sanctions on Eritrea, a move that diverges from the usual pattern of sanction relief following political reform or conflict resolution. Eritrea’s authoritarian regime, led by Isaias Afwerki since 1993, shows...
UPS Adds Temporary Surge Fee to US Imports, Exports
UPS introduced a temporary "Surge Emergency Fee" on April 19, imposing a $0.23 per‑pound surcharge on most U.S. import and export shipments and a $0.32 per‑pound rate for China and Hong Kong lanes. The fee spans seven core services, from Worldwide...
ECB's Nagel Says Trump's Fed Attacks Caused Flight to Safety
ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel warned that President Donald Trump’s repeated attacks on the Federal Reserve are prompting a flight to safety. Bundesbank research shows the rhetoric has lowered Treasury yields, depressed equity prices, boosted gold and weakened the dollar....
Geopolitical Shocks and Default Probabilities of European Firms: A Sectoral Heterogeneity Analysis
A new study uses local projections on 1,324 European firms (Jan 2021‑Apr 2026) to measure how geopolitical risk shocks affect sector‑specific default probabilities. A one‑standard‑deviation rise in the Caldara‑Iacoviello GPR Index lifts the logit‑transformed Bloomberg five‑year default probability most in Consumer Staples...
EU Hits Russia with New Sanctions as €90bn Aid Flows to Ukraine by June Latest
The European Union approved a new sanctions package against Russia and unlocked a €90 billion ($97 billion) loan for Ukraine, with disbursements slated to start by June. The loan is split evenly between €60 billion ($65 billion) for military aid and €30 billion ($32 billion) for...
Wheatstone LNG Resumes Full Production, Adding Supplies to Market Rattled by Iran War
Wheatstone LNG announced it has returned to full‑production levels, restoring its 7.5 mtpa output to the global market. The restart comes as the LNG sector grapples with supply disruptions linked to the Iran‑U.S. naval standoff in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian...
BIMCO Warns Hormuz Reopening Hinges on Mine Clearance as Trump Orders Sweep Surge
The Baltic and International Maritime Council warned that a meaningful reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will require weeks of dedicated mine‑clearing operations, noting that restricted corridors and dual U.S.–Iran enforcement actions still limit commercial traffic. President Donald Trump amplified...
UK Braces for Price Rises Driven by Iran War as Economic Confidence Plummets
UK consumer confidence slipped to its lowest level since October 2023 as the Iran war fuels inflation expectations. Business surveys reveal rising cost pressures, with more than a quarter of firms planning price hikes, driven largely by higher energy costs....
How the Philippines Can Stay Out of Recession
The Philippines’ growth slowed to 4.4% in 2025 from 5.7% in 2024, while headline inflation rose to 4.1% in March 2026. The IMF still projects 5.6% growth in 2026, but policymakers must protect purchasing power, speed up public investment, keep...
Standalone Regulatory Relief
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is considering a temporary reduction of the Minimum Liquidity Ratio (MLR) for the Chamber of Thrift Banks (CTB) from 20% to 16% to ease liquidity pressures on its 54 members and 1,200 branches. This...
Grocery Prices Will Keep Rising No Matter What Politicians Promise
Canadian grocery prices are climbing faster than in the United States, with families now spending roughly $1,200 more per year than before the pandemic. Inflation is driven by sharp increases in staples such as coffee (+30.8%) and beef (+16.8%). The...
Gulf War Fuels Raw Material Inflation, FMCG Firms Shift to Daily Pricing Strategy
The Gulf war has sparked a sharp rise in raw‑material costs for Indian FMCG firms, with inflation ranging from 20% to 60% across inputs such as light liquid paraffin and packaging. Companies like Havells, Bajaj Consumer Care and Parle are...
Golden Pass Ships First LNG Cargo, Launching Major New U.S. Export Supply
Golden Pass LNG, a QatarEnergy‑ExxonMobil joint venture, shipped its first export cargo from Sabine Pass, Texas, marking the transition from commissioning to commercial trade. The three‑train terminal aims to export about 18 million tonnes per annum, positioning it among North America’s...
U.S. Inflation Picture Is the Worst in Almost 4 Years
U.S. inflation has surged to its most severe level since 2022, according to a MarketWatch report. S&P Global’s service‑sector index rose to 51.3 in April, up from a three‑year low of 49.8, indicating modest expansion despite broader price pressures. Companies...
EU Loan Throws Ukraine a Lifeline, but More Help Needed for War
The European Union approved a €90 bn (~$97 bn) loan for Ukraine, with half of the funds to be disbursed this year and the balance in 2027. The financing is split between roughly €17 bn per year for health, education and other public...
Beijing’s Emphasis on Security Weighing on US Firms’ Optimism: AmCham China
American firms in China applaud regulatory refinements and greater openness, yet persistent national‑security priorities curb optimism. AmCham China's 2026 white paper highlights incremental progress on foreign investment rules and cross‑border data governance, but warns that broad, evolving security definitions complicate...
Hainan Was China’s Shopping Paradise. For Beijing That’s No Longer Enough.
Hainan, once celebrated as China’s premier duty‑free shopping destination, saw a sharp 29.3% drop in duty‑free spending in 2024. In response, Beijing announced a strategic pivot, turning the island into a testbed for broader tax incentives, tariff‑free access, and a...
Five Reasons Global Markets Are Surprisingly Resilient Despite War in Iran
Two months into the Iran conflict, global equities are rallying toward record highs despite heightened geopolitical risk. Investors have largely discounted worst‑case scenarios, focusing on solid corporate fundamentals and abundant liquidity. A surge in artificial‑intelligence chip stocks and robust first‑quarter...
RBI Sees Growth, Inflation Risks From Escalating US-Iran War
The Reserve Bank of India warned in its April 2026 bulletin that the escalating US‑Iran war poses a major downside risk to the global and domestic economy. Prolonged conflict could raise energy and input costs, disrupt trade flows and trigger...
Billionaire Bernard Arnault Warns Of ‘World Catastrophe’ If Iran War Is Unresolved
Billionaire LVMH chief Bernard Arnault warned that an unresolved Iran war could spark a "world catastrophe" with severe economic fallout. LVMH reported the conflict shaved 1% off organic growth and saw demand plunge up to 70% since February. The luxury giant’s...
Why Israel’s Economy Is Thriving Now
Israel’s shekel has surged to below three per U.S. dollar, a level not seen since the mid‑1990s, reflecting heightened investor confidence amid regional conflict. The country’s defense and high‑tech sectors have attracted capital inflows after recent operations showcased Israeli weaponry....
West Asia Conflict, Supply Chain Disruptions May Create Challenges to Economy: RBI Bulletin
The Reserve Bank of India’s April bulletin warns that the ongoing West Asia conflict and related supply‑chain disruptions could pressure India’s economy through higher energy costs, rising input prices, and trade‑flow disturbances. While domestic activity remains broadly resilient, the bulletin...
Global PMIs Diverge as Iran War Shock Spreads: Europe Contracts, UK Front-Loads, Australia Trapped, Japan Absorbs Costs
Global PMI data for April reveal that the Iran‑driven oil shock is creating fragmented stagflation across major economies. The Eurozone’s flash composite PMI slipped into contraction, driven by a historic services downturn, while the UK saw a manufacturing surge fueled...
Middle East Conflict Triggers Aluminium Supply Concerns
The global aluminium market is confronting a sudden supply shock as the Middle‑East conflict disrupts both primary aluminium and alumina shipments. The region accounts for roughly seven million tonnes, about 9% of worldwide output, and the disruption could create a...
The Briefing Room
The United States and Israel’s two‑month war with Iran has kept the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut, choking the route that moves roughly 20% of the world’s oil and LNG. Consequently, crude prices remain elevated, feeding inflation pressures across major...
Use the WTO to Address Global Fertilizer Supply Constraints Related to the Iran War
The war in Iran has crippled the global fertilizer supply chain, affecting roughly 30% of worldwide trade that passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Export bans by China, Russia and Turkey have pushed fertilizer prices higher and sparked fears of...
From Net Oil Importer to Net Oil Exporter : Shifts in the Role of Petroleum in the US Economy
The United States transitioned from a long‑standing net oil importer to a net exporter around 2020, as refined petroleum exports outpaced imports. Data from the Federal Reserve’s FRED series show the net export share of GDP turning positive after decades...
Amid Wartime Disruptions, Most Emerging-Market Central Banks Will Follow the Fed
The IMF’s April World Economic Outlook trimmed emerging‑market (EM) growth for 2026 to 3.9% from 4.2% and nudged inflation expectations up to 5.5%, while advanced economies remain near 1.8% growth. The Iran war has amplified energy‑price shocks and a volatile...
STB Signs Off on New Maverick County, Tex., Line
The Surface Transportation Board (STB) approved GER’s petition to build a new rail and commercial motor‑vehicle line in Maverick County, Texas, linking the Eagle Pass border to Union Pacific’s Eagle Pass Subdivision. The Board selected the Southern Rail Alternative as...
West Asia Crisis: India, Qatar Discuss Ways to Boost Trade, Strengthen Supply Chains
India and Qatar met virtually to explore ways to expand bilateral trade and shore up supply‑chain resilience amid disruptions caused by the West Asia crisis. Trade between the two nations stood at $14 billion in FY24‑25, with both sides targeting a...
Canada March PPI +2.4% M/M vs +1.9% Expected
Canada’s March industrial producer price index (IPPI) rose 2.4% month‑over‑month, outpacing the 1.9% consensus. The raw‑materials price index (RMPI) jumped a staggering 12.0% m/m, far exceeding the 0.6% rise recorded in February. Year‑over‑year, the IPPI was up 7.8% while the...
MacroVoices #529 Ole S Hansen: Commodities in The Wake of The Iran Crisis
Ole S. Hansen joins MacroVoices to dissect how the escalating Iran crisis is reshaping commodity markets. He highlights logistical bottlenecks, a looming fertilizer deficit, and the ripple effects on agricultural and industrial inputs. The discussion also covers copper’s price surge...
MOSCOW BLOG: EU Unblocks Ukrainian Loan, Twentieth Sanctions Package, as Kyiv Builds a Robot Army
The European Union approved a €90 bn ($97 bn) loan for Ukraine, allocating roughly €45 bn ($48.6 bn) to defence this year and covering the first three quarters of 2025. At the same time the EU adopted its twentieth sanctions package against Russia, though...
US Seizes Iran-Linked Tanker Majestic X
U.S. forces conducted a right‑of‑visit boarding of the 280,000‑dwt VLCC Majestic X, also known as Phonix, in the Indian Ocean’s INDOPACOM area. The vessel, listed on OFAC’s Iran sanctions list in December 2024, was seized while transporting Iranian crude. The operation...
Pakistani Officials Blame Blockade, Not Iran Divisions, for Stalled Talks
Pakistani officials say a maritime blockade, not Iran’s internal divisions, is stalling U.S.-Iran talks. Islamabad has offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for a partial lift of U.S. sanctions on Tehran. Tehran, meanwhile, insists that any negotiations...